Visões que alimentam o derradeiro estertor Bull do mercado!
Enviado: 28/6/2005 10:58Caríssimos Ertai e Proença...
...ilustres membros deste fórum aos quais de modo algum me posso comparar. Afinal, sou um nabo assumido em AT e AF e tudo o mais! Bem, mas talvez até tenha outra qualidades ocultas, quem sabe...
Eis mais um de vários mails que por vezes recebo com o mesmo teor alarmista, e que até está provavelmente certo... mas no timing errado... beware!!!
Warning: The Stock Market Could Crash In July and August of 2005!
2003 was a very profitable year for those that capitalized on rally. The Dow Jones advanced 35%, the S&P 38%, and the Nasdaq has run up a whopping 54%. Many investors have racked up very nice gains during this move. However, my fear is too many have been lulled into a false sense of security, and you may be one of them.
The latest rally is simply an intermediate bullish rally within a deep bear market correction. Over the last 18 months all three major indices have traded sideways with the Dow down -2.0%, the Nasdaq up 2.0% and the SP 500 up a measly 0.75%. This type of price action is not indicative of a new bull market. It smells of a nasty continuation of the bear market that started in March of 2000.
Consider this as well. The average P/E at the market top in 1929 was 21, at the bottom in 1932 the P/E sat at 8.5. The market top in 1973 carried an average P/E ratio of 19 at the bottom in 1974 the P/E was 7.
At the market top in 2000 the average P/E for the SP 500 was a whopping 35. At the bottom in October 2002 the average P/E was still an incredible 28. Markets don’t bottom with a P/E ratio of 28. Not to mention the dividend ratio is at a 132 year low, indicating that investors are only concerned with price appreciation in stocks.
Right now the average P/E sits at just over 20 which is still historically very high (the Nasdaq has an average P/E of 53). Add to this the fact that the FED has hiked short-term rates 8 consecutive times, the bullish sentiment as measured by the VIX is at an all-time high, and we are seeing major signs of a slowing economy and you have a recipe for a major market crash.
Consider this your warning: I believe the market action of the last 2 days is the beginning of what will turn out to be a 50% plus market slide. If you are not properly hedged you could suffer devastating losses, similar to those you may have already suffered in 2000 and 2001. But if you know how to capitalize on a down market you could potentially make millions!
If you lost money or missed out on the enormous profits created during the last bear market correction by those in the know, this is your second chance. But you must act fast in order to position yourself to potentially double or triple the size of your trading account. (...)
And so it goes... wrong, quite wrong!!!
BUY is screaming right now... extremely loud and clear!!! And those who have ears or a deep intuition they are acting on that cry... you’ve got to fearless buy!!!
E a minha confiança nesta visão Bull é ilimitada... ilimitada!!! Mas só até meados de Setembro, atenção!... justamente até à maturidade destes warrants que vou agora comprar para não mais deles me desfazer. O triplo do seu valor é o mínimo dos mínimos que espero. E 400% (!!!) em 3 meses, soa como uma belíssima aposta... quem é que não gosta?
Está o dinheiro a dar à costa...
leprechaun
(...p’ra conta ficar composta!!!
)
...ilustres membros deste fórum aos quais de modo algum me posso comparar. Afinal, sou um nabo assumido em AT e AF e tudo o mais! Bem, mas talvez até tenha outra qualidades ocultas, quem sabe...
Eis mais um de vários mails que por vezes recebo com o mesmo teor alarmista, e que até está provavelmente certo... mas no timing errado... beware!!!
Warning: The Stock Market Could Crash In July and August of 2005!
2003 was a very profitable year for those that capitalized on rally. The Dow Jones advanced 35%, the S&P 38%, and the Nasdaq has run up a whopping 54%. Many investors have racked up very nice gains during this move. However, my fear is too many have been lulled into a false sense of security, and you may be one of them.
The latest rally is simply an intermediate bullish rally within a deep bear market correction. Over the last 18 months all three major indices have traded sideways with the Dow down -2.0%, the Nasdaq up 2.0% and the SP 500 up a measly 0.75%. This type of price action is not indicative of a new bull market. It smells of a nasty continuation of the bear market that started in March of 2000.
Consider this as well. The average P/E at the market top in 1929 was 21, at the bottom in 1932 the P/E sat at 8.5. The market top in 1973 carried an average P/E ratio of 19 at the bottom in 1974 the P/E was 7.
At the market top in 2000 the average P/E for the SP 500 was a whopping 35. At the bottom in October 2002 the average P/E was still an incredible 28. Markets don’t bottom with a P/E ratio of 28. Not to mention the dividend ratio is at a 132 year low, indicating that investors are only concerned with price appreciation in stocks.
Right now the average P/E sits at just over 20 which is still historically very high (the Nasdaq has an average P/E of 53). Add to this the fact that the FED has hiked short-term rates 8 consecutive times, the bullish sentiment as measured by the VIX is at an all-time high, and we are seeing major signs of a slowing economy and you have a recipe for a major market crash.
Consider this your warning: I believe the market action of the last 2 days is the beginning of what will turn out to be a 50% plus market slide. If you are not properly hedged you could suffer devastating losses, similar to those you may have already suffered in 2000 and 2001. But if you know how to capitalize on a down market you could potentially make millions!
If you lost money or missed out on the enormous profits created during the last bear market correction by those in the know, this is your second chance. But you must act fast in order to position yourself to potentially double or triple the size of your trading account. (...)
And so it goes... wrong, quite wrong!!!
BUY is screaming right now... extremely loud and clear!!! And those who have ears or a deep intuition they are acting on that cry... you’ve got to fearless buy!!!
E a minha confiança nesta visão Bull é ilimitada... ilimitada!!! Mas só até meados de Setembro, atenção!... justamente até à maturidade destes warrants que vou agora comprar para não mais deles me desfazer. O triplo do seu valor é o mínimo dos mínimos que espero. E 400% (!!!) em 3 meses, soa como uma belíssima aposta... quem é que não gosta?
Está o dinheiro a dar à costa...
leprechaun
(...p’ra conta ficar composta!!!
)