Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Ulisses Pereira]

"S&P Spoiling For Move Higher"

By Jeff Cooper
Street Insight Contributor
6/13/2005 7:00 AM EDT

"The S&P 500 continues its obstinate dance at the 1200 level. Its stubborn refusal to let go of this level has been going on for two weeks now. Last Friday, the S&P closed at 1196. This week, it closed at 1198.10.

It is a dull market, but the old adage, "Never short a dull market" comes to mind and currently takes on added significance for a few reasons:


The market has gone 50 days past its April low. In my work, if it were going to go down, it probably would have done so already. But next week will tell the tale. That would be the last window, in my work, where if a topping of significance were being made, then it would occur. Remember that next Friday is options expiration. If we are going to see a reversal, then we should see one just into or just after expiration.

Additionally, advances usually end with a spike and not a flat line.
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The 20-day moving average on the S&P has now caught up to an important level -- 1191. Remember that 1191 is the square 90 degrees down on the Gann Square of Nine chart from the 1225 closing high of this year. With the 20-day moving average and the 1191 square currently dovetailing, both are in a position to well support the market. This could and should act as a springboard for the S&P. The other side of the coin is that a break below 1191 now would take added negatives into account.

Who knew that the 1191 square and the 1198 level -- which was the low for the high-bar week for March -- would contain the market for this long?

Be that as it may, the market is getting ready to do something, and I think that this something is to the upside, with the 1200 being the Rubicon. Why? Well, the April low to this 1200 level is approximately 60 points. We know that a Fibonacci of 0.618 of the March 2000 high to the October 2002 low of the whole bull/bear market is 1260. It is more than interesting that another symmetrical 60-point leg up would take the S&P to 1260.

(in www.realmoney.com)