O que significaria o bloqueio do Estreito de Ormuz?

[Ulisses Pereira]

Das últimas vezes que coloquei aqui artigos do Aaaron Task, alguém me pediu para ir aqui deixando, sempre que possível. Assim o tentarei fazer. O que gosto sobretudo no Task é que é um jornalista que tenta recolher opiniões de vários analistas e "gurus" e nos permite obter vários ângulos do mercado.

Não transcrevo o artigo completo pois a primeira parte é fastidiosa, mas deixo a parte onde ele fala das convicções de Pretcher quanto ao ouro, enquanto ele, Task, mantém uma perspectiva "bullish".

"Market Uses the Power of Positive Thinking"

By Aaron L. Task
Senior Writer
01/14/2003 05:49 PM EST


" (...) Gold Again

Last night I wrote about some technical observers who foresee a short-term top in gold and related shares. On Tuesday, the price of gold fell 0.8% to $352.40 per ounce while the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index (XAU) shed 3.9%.

Gold's performance Tuesday should be a little disconcerting to its advocates, given the accompanying weakness in the dollar and uncertainty on the geopolitical front, both of which usually support gold. (Still, the dollar closed well off its early lows -- the Dollar Index ended down 0.12 to 101.35 after trading under 101.10 earlier -- and afternoon strength in stocks probably hampered the metal.)

Going back to last night, I erred in my description of Elliott Wave International's Steve Hochberg as a "long-term bull" on gold. Such a description overlooked Elliott Wave International chieftain Robert Prechter's $200 price target on the yellow metal.


In February 2001, Prechter suggested sentiment on gold had become too negative and forecast a rally of as much as $100 per ounce, suggesting $360 as the "maximum upside," Hochberg recalled Tuesday. "We got that rally and it's pretty clear to us [gold] is topping here."

In a more recent note, Prechter said silver's series of "lower highs" and the corresponding "nonconfirmation" of gold's rally is another reason for his bearish view on the yellow metal. (That's something I'd like to hear silver bull Bill Fleckenstein address.)

Hochberg forecast that gold will go down "fairly easily" to the $315-$320 range before bouncing, and then resume the downward path to $200. From there, he thinks gold will "take off." (Technically, that makes him a "long-term bull," but that's a stretch for sure.)

At first glance, forecasting $200 gold seems counterintuitive with Prechter's other prediction of Dow 3000, or thereabouts. Since early 2001, gold and U.S. equities have produced almost perfect divergence, with the metal up 33% in the past two years as of Monday's close and the S&P 500 down 30%. (The XAU is up nearly 57% in the same time frame.)

However, "you can't make a monolithic statement about there being a negative correlation," Hochberg said, noting gold and stocks fell in tandem from March 2000 until March 2001.

Hochberg foresees a scenario of intensifying deflationary pressures that will crimp demand for both stocks and gold, historically perceived as an inflation hedge.

Dave Hunter, chief market strategist at Kelly & Christensen, a brokerage firm on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, has long shared Hochberg's concern about deflation.

"This is an economy on the edge, and any return to recession is likely to cause a domino effect leading to a sharp deflationary contraction," Hunter wrote in his 2003 outlook piece. Recession will be hard to avoid because of the nation's "enormous indebtedness," and "neither the recently announced stimulus plan nor current monetary policy will prevent" recession's return, he forecast.

However, Hunter believes deflation will be bullish for gold as investors lose faith in policymakers and paper currencies. The yellow metal is "more likely to rally sharply from here rather than selloff as some are suggesting," he commented via email Tuesday. "While the past month's sideways action may be indicative of a short-term top, I am viewing it as a high-level consolidation with a breakout to follow."

Breakout or breakdown? We shall see.

But for those keeping score at home, I remain a long-term bull on gold, and maintain a stake in the Tocqueville Gold fund. "

(in www.realmoney.com)