Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

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8:29am 03/03/05 U.S. Q4 UNIT LABOR COSTS REVISED TO 1.3% VS. 2.3%
8:29am 03/03/05 U.S. Q4 MANUFACTURING UNIT LABOR COSTS REVISED TO 0.4%
8:29am 03/03/05 U.S. Q4 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIVITY REVISED TO 5.8%
8:29am 03/03/05 U.S. 2004 PRODUCTIVITY UP 4%, CAPPING 3 HISTORIC YEARS
8:29am 03/03/05 U.S. Q4 PRODUCTIVITY REVISED TO 2.1% VS. 0.8%

8:29am 03/03/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 12K TO 2.67M
8:29am 03/03/05 U.S. 4-WK AVERAGE INITIAL CLAIMS OFF 1,500 TO 307,000
8:29am 03/03/05 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS OFF 1,000 TO 310,000

ECONOMIC REPORT: U.S. jobless claims dip to 310,000; Four-week average falls to 4-year low of 307,000
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:32 AM ET March 3, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 in the latest week to 310,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The four-week average of new claims dropped by 1,500 to 307,000, the lowest since October 2000.

The figures were in line with expectations of economists, who had an average forecast in a MarketWatch survey of 311,000 for first-time claims.

Meanwhile, the number of former workers receiving benefit checks climbed by 12,000 to 2.67 million in the week ending Feb. 19.

The insured unemployment rate remained at 2.1 percent.

In just the past month, initial jobless claims have broken below the 330,000 to 350,000 level that had prevailed for a year.

The figures come a day before the Labor Department reports on February job growth and unemployment rate. In large part because of improved jobless claims data in the past month, economists are generally optimistic that job growth has resumed a stronger growth pace after eight months of disappointing hiring.

The average forecast of economists calls for February nonfarm payrolls to rise by 221,000.

The jobless claims data show improvement in labor market conditions. Layoffs, represented by initial claims, have declined about 14 percent over the past year, from about 356,000 a year ago to 307,000 today.

Continuing claims, which give a flavor of the hiring environment, have fallen about 15 percent from 3.16 million a year ago.

The Federal Reserve had been focused on the weak labor market for much of the past four years. But recent comments from Fed officials indicate that they are satisfied with the improvements in job growth and are now focused primarily on inflationary signals.

The Fed is expected to raise its short-term interest rate target to 2.75 percent at the next meeting on March 22.

Unemployment benefits are available for about six months to those in covered employment who lose their jobs through no fault of their own. More than a third of beneficiaries exhaust their benefits before finding work.

Long-term unemployment has been worse than normal during this recovery. In January, about 1.6 million of the 8 million Americans classified as unemployed had been out of work longer than six months.

In a separate report, the Labor Department revised fourth-quarter nonfarm business productivity to 2.1 percent annualized from 0.8 percent earlier. Unit labor costs were revised to 1.3 percent annualized from 2.3 percent.


ECONOMIC REPORT: U.S. Q4 productivity revised to 2.1%
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:32 AM ET March 3, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Productivity growth in the U.S. nonfarm business sector was much stronger in the fourth quarter than previously estimated.

Productivity was revised to a 2.1 percent annual growth rate from the 0.8 percent estimate a month ago, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a revision to 1.4 percent, considering the upward revision to fourth-quarter gross domestic product.

Fourth-quarter unit labor costs, a key measure of inflationary pressures, were revised down to a 1.3 percent annual rate from 2.3 percent. It was the slowest rise in unit labor costs in three quarters. In the fourth quarter, real hourly compensation fell 0.2 percent.

In all of 2004, productivity increased 4 percent, capping three years of extraordinary productivity gains, the best in more than 50 years. Unit labor costs increased 0.4 percent in 2004, the first increase in three years.

Productivity grew at a 5.8 percent annual rate in the manufacturing sector, as output rose 4.6 percent while hours worked fell 1.1 percent. Unit labor costs rose 0.4 percent in manufacturing, while real hourly compensation increased 2.5 percent.

Productivity is measured by unit of output per hour worked. It's the essential factor in long-term economic health, but is extremely difficult to measure in the short-run, especially in services industries where the concept of a "unit" of output is fuzzy at best.

Fast-rising productivity can keep inflation low. It can allow companies to reap higher profits while giving workers higher pay without raising prices.

Higher productivity is the only way living standards can improve without requiring more hours of labor.

In the short run, fast productivity gains mean companies can produce more output with fewer employees. It's been a key factor in the slow job growth of the past three years.

It now takes 88 workers to produce what 100 workers could produce in 2001.

In the past three years, companies have garnered the bulk of the benefits from productivity improvements in the form of profits, while workers' compensation has lagged.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 310,000 last week. The four-week average of new claims dropped to 307,000, a four-year low.