Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[maya]

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/bu ... 050225.htm

The Commerce Department announced this morning that it has revised its estimate for fourth-quarter growth in gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced in the economy. It now believes GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.8 percent at the end of 2004, up substantially from its previous estimate of 3.1 percent. This means the economy really did not slow as much at the end of last year as some economists believed (GDP rose at a annualized pace of 4 percent in the third quarter).

A significant reason for the fourth-quarter revision was stronger-than-expected exports. Canada, for example, recently conceded that it had underestimated the total amount of U.S. goods that it had imported in November. Overall, the Commerce Department now believes U.S. exports increased 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter, instead of falling by 3.9 percent.

Even better, many economists now think the economy will grow faster in 2005 than they initially thought as well.

Earlier this month, the consensus forecast for economic growth in the first half of 2005 was ratcheted up by economists surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Those economic forecasters now believe that GDP will grow at an annualized rate of 3.7 percent in the first and second quarters of this year. An earlier survey of those same economists showed predictions of 3.4 percent.

Overall, economists now think the U.S. economy will grow 3.6 percent in 2005, according to a separate survey by the National Association of Business Economics. Some are even projecting 3.6 percent growth for 2006 as well. If that should come to pass, the economy would be in store for a prolonged period of strong and stable economic expansion, which is just what the labor markets need.