Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Ertai]

Interessante ver um comentário à PTC de um analista "lá de fora"...

Também é interessante saber que ao investirmos na PTC também estamos a investir no crescimento económico de Macau/China, mas pergunto-me até que ponto isso influencia as contas da PT e a cotação da mesma..

[torres]

Permitam que vos mostre uma coisa que me pareceu relevante, com especial relevo para a opinião sobre a PT que anda lá pelos States:

From the Editor’s Desk:
Such a Difficult Day

“It is difficult to start a rally on a Friday. We may get a bout of short covering from those that have done well this week and don’t want weekend exposure, but expect the gains to come slow and the buying to be tenuous.”
--Cantor Fitzgerald’s Marc Pado

It’s all because it’s Friday.

OK.

If you say so, Marc.

But doesn’t the fact that the SPY is sitting on the exact same falling trendline it sat on before Monday’s ridiculous exercise seem even a little significant?

Or that this major proxy for the market couldn’t push either price or momentum into positive territory while its MACD-H still indicated such a clear negative signal?

Don’t you see the slightest significance in the fact that the price cap of US$118.84 from January 5 through January 14 represented a 23.6% retracement of the index’s rally from last October to the first trading day of this year?

How about the fact that today’s floor as of 2:00 P.M., US$117.08, matches the rally’s support points from November 5 through December 1 of last year, and is the rally’s 38.2% retracement?

Gosh, Marc, I don’t want to sound disrespectful or anything, but that Friday comment is just about the weakest thing I’ve heard in weeks. So I will let one of my correspondents say it for me:

“I think (Adam) needs a new headline that reads DID YOU HEAR WHAT I SAID!
After reading his views as a member for a while now I have learned to listen and want to thank him for the unofficial SPX play. My puts are up 40% in one day.”
--A.

Meanwhile, Advanced players were told to sell their Merck puts today for 26% gains. Is there more downside to them? Perhaps, but with the overall index sitting on a support node that should slow this descent for a day or so, I thought it opportune to get out.

Just remember, when it bounces early next week, Marc may very well think it’s because it’s Monday. Very sophisticated stuff, eh?

Adam


***

From the Trading Floor:
eBay and Merck Net 25% and 26%

Thanks to eBay and Merck, it was a good day to be a WaveStrength subscriber.

As you know, shares of eBay plunged 19% yesterday, wiping out some US$13 billion of market value in one day.

According to my analysis, this selloff was in response to eBay being US$200 million off the mark in their earnings.

So I made a speculative call…

I said that the stock was getting punished to the tune of US$13 billion in market valuation over a simple US$200 million in missed earnings.

So yesterday, Traders bought eBay calls for US$9.10.

And today, eBay stock popped on the heels of analyst upgrades like those from Legg Mason analyst Scott Devitt. The latter upgraded eBay to “buy” from “hold,” pointing out that eBay is boosting sales by more than 35% while maintaining operating margins above 35%.

This was the very argument I made yesterday while eBay was tanking.

And what happened?

eBay rallied US$4.00 by midafternoon trading - and Ann and I took 25% gains off the table in two days. (Actually, we sold half our eBay calls and are holding the remaining half. For anyone who bought one contract, always take first-time profits.) So congratulations on your gain for the weekend.

Now, I’d like to switch from one speculative stock to another:

As you know, I feel that Travelzoo (TZOO:NASDAQ) is one of the most bloated, overvalued stocks on the market. The company is nothing more than an online travel agency that does essentially the same thing as YahooTravel.

Amazingly, TZOO’s tight float and high short position have the stock trading for a whopping US$74.00 a share. Each day it seems like the stock is either up or down US$5.00 to US$10.00. In short, it’s a huge mover on the NASDAQ.

On Monday, January 24, the company will report earnings. I was all set to recommend a February straddle play on TZOO - thinking this announcement would either crush the stock or propel it higher. (As long as the company makes a big move - either up or down - a straddle position makes money.) Unfortunately, TZOO does NOT trade options.

D’oh!

Perhaps I should turn my attention back to Overstock.com, which reports next Tuesday. More on that next week.

Until then, have a good weekend,

Bryan



From the Chart Table:
Ann E. Coyote, Suuuuuper, Geeeeeenius!

Here’s a letter I received from ever-loyal M.P. today which made me chuckle and grimace at the same time (and you’ll see why):

“I must admit, after I read your thoughts on QCOM a couple of weeks ago, I was a bit mystified. According to my (simplistic) charts, the stock looked like it was moving nicely and solidly upward from a rounded bottom.

“Your assessment of having momentum retest the neutral line seemed a bit confusing. (I don’t have momentum on my indicators, just RSI, which seemed OK.)

“But after watching it slowly drop for several days straight, I have to say you were right on the money. In fact, after today’s action, I’d have to say a LOT on the money!

“Truth is, I had already bought February calls after my initial email, before your assessment (I know, I know, silly me).

“When I watched it move downward, along with the value of my calls, I became concerned. Then I read your latest bearish assessment and realized earnings day was coming soon. So I took it upon myself to buy some February puts to protect whatever I had left.

“Bought them the morning before the report. One of the best things I’ve done yet! They were already up by the close of yesterday. Today they more than doubled!

“I only bought a few (three to be exact, as I only had two of the calls), but the point is I made back everything I lost on the calls and then some. (In fact, since it looks like the stock may hold at its 200-day, I may just hold on to the calls a bit longer. I remember back in October when we played QCOM how it would snap back up sharply after several down days.) In fact, I’d love to get your current assessment in an upcoming Market Report if you have the time.

“Again, even though it wasn’t an ‘official’ recommendation, I just wanted to thank you for your diligence, brilliance and prescience. True, no one’s always right, but as long as you’re right more often (and to a greater degree) than being wrong, it adds up to profits.”

Now this exercise wasn’t to toot my own horn. In fact, I’m a little on the agitated side. Often I find myself writing to you guys about specific indices I’m looking at for the day and how they’re performing and will perform in the future. And often, I forget in the shuffle and bustle of the everyday market, just how powerful quick and simple gut-play intuition and observation can be for you portfolio.

Just to give you some background on QCOM, on January 6 I said the following about its chart:

“My focus when looking at QCOM is the stock’s momentum. Momentum has lain fallow below neutral after dropping on December 16 and retesting at two identical peaks of 1.2. Its recent momentum lows are 1.65 and 1.67.

“To get in on QCOM based on its momentum, wait for it to hit neutral, retest to -1 and then cross into positive territory. You’d want to buy QCOM the second time it attempts and beats neutral.

“Using my favorite indicators to expound on my analysis of QCOM, the 15-day average looks ready to break upward away from the 10-day and the Bollinger Bands are paunching as a sign of strength. But a reminder about playing this stock: US$45 is the strong resistance for QCOM. It’s already tested that level on December 3, December 16, and December 23.

“If you do play now, you might want to bail near that level.”

QCOM has indeed tested the neutral line of momentum twice and has failed drastically. Currently, momentum is at low of 5.13. In fact, the price gapped down three points on January 20’s open. This same gap down on a momentum drop occurred between November 3 and 4, 2004.

The good news, as M.P. mentioned, is the 200-day moving average (which also happens to be the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). This would be a perfect opportunity to buy QCOM calls (which we can do in the Trader service Monday!). If you look back to July 2003, QCOM made three four-point rallies off of the 200-day moving average, giving traders who saw this formation and jumped on it some great, quick gains.

The MACD is looking like it should twirl upward (I like to think of the signal line and the fast line as a ribbon these days) through the negative shadow to neutral fairly soon.

This is an opportunity, as Bryan likes to say, to short the dips. In this case it’s a big one.

And speaking of big dips, eBay! Wow, we saw our calls rise two dollars in today’s trading. Bryan always loves to take Friday profits, so he couldn’t resist the chance to sell half of our eBay calls.

So Traders: We have a 26% gain listed for that sell.

The chunk we’re still holding should provide an additional solid gain.

Have a good weekend. We’ll talk to you on Monday!

Ann





Exciting Times:
More Hands in the Pot

I know I keep saying it and I don’t doubt you believe me, but I find the more I read about China’s growing business market, the more one simple fact bears repeating:

The very future of telecommunications may rest in China. And telecom interests worldwide know this. China already serves over 300 million mobile phone subscribers, making it the largest mobile market in the world, and that figure is expected to climb to 556 million by the year 2010. China anticipates a large increase in Internet, cable television and fixed-line phone customers, which only stands to sweeten the country’s gains.

As I said before, worldwide interests are sitting up and taking notice. Companies are rapidly seeking out ways to bring the expected financial success in China home to their respective countries.

Portugal Telecom (PT) is one such company worth paying attention to, and not just because of their involvement in China. The Portugal Telecom group is the largest Portuguese communications and multimedia operator, having grown from a fixed-line network operator into a company that provides a vast range of services, including multimedia, entertainment and integrated corporate solutions. Also, the company continues to serve the fixed-line (4 million lines) and mobile (4.8 million subscribers) phone markets.

“Portugal Telecom continues to invest in the latest technologies to ensure the best possible experience for its customers,” states PT board member Iriatre Esteves, discussing PT’s investment in edocs’ Telco E-Billing Manager, which allows customers the convenience of accessing invoices online (a technological advance the US mobile industry already greatly benefits from).

This move to an e-billing system is expected to provide PT with a large return on their investment, a belief further emphasized when considering PT’s global market reach.

Beyond their own boarders, PT currently conducts business in Europe and Africa, as well as having active partnerships with US companies such as Microsoft, IBM and Commerce One.

It’s easy to see that Portugal Telecom is positioning itself to grow into an even stronger global player in the telecom market, but its smartest move might be one currently in the making.

“China is on the brink of a new phase in its history,” says PT’s Chief Executive Miguel Horta e Costa. “It’s a magic moment which must be taken advantage of.”

On the heels of PT’s success in Brazil, the company is looking to seize the opportunities in China, gaining a foothold on the mainland by way of the former Portuguese colony of Macau (located on the south coast).

Currently, PT holds a 28% share of CTM, Macau’s public telecom operator, which provides both fixed and mobile phones as well as Internet services to the area’s 500,000 people. More specifically, PT is said to account for 80% of the area’s mobile phone service.

Further, Portugal Telecom has a 55% claim to TV Cabo Macau, the area’s cable television provider, as well as small interests in Telesat and Cosmos, which provide satellite television.

While this may seem like a modest start considering the population, it appears PT is only laying the groundwork for something larger. PT hopes to expand its interests from Macau into the other regions of China and capitalize on the country’s continuing telecom growth.

How might it do this? Those of you familiar with my previous explorations of China’s telecom industry may remember the names China Mobile and China Unicom. For those of you hearing about them for the first time, they are companies well worth remembering.

China Mobile and China Unicom are the two top mobile companies in the country, and both are actively seeking methods and technology not only to outperform the other but also to drive the industry to new and exciting (not to mention profitable) places. (For more information on these companies, please refer to the January 11 and 14 issues of the Market Report.)

On a recent visit to the country, Horta e Costa met with leaders from both companies in order to discuss future partnerships, as well as meeting with leaders from China Telecom Corporation and China Netcom.

Despite the excitement surrounding this exploration of China and PT’s strong desire to make all the right business friends in the industry, there is much caution surrounding the venture. Some analysts suggest that PT is currently too small to make a huge splash in the Chinese marketplace. It might do better concentrating its efforts in the places where it has already found success but currently faces competition, such as Brazil.

For his part, Horta e Costa expresses PT’s intention to invest in China carefully. “In a country of this scale there can be no rush, no errors in judgment.” Still, he remains optimistic about PT’s success in China. He doesn’t expect the company to conquer the Chinese market: “We have the all the ingredients in place to have a presence in China tomorrow, but this presence with always be in selected niches,” says Horta e Costa. “Any small thing done in China is big for us.”

When all is said and done, it is clear that Portugal’s current place in China’s telecom industry offers much promise, not only for China’s industry but for Portugal’s as well. Those beginning to test the waters in China are finding large rewards in its ever-expanding marketplace.

As China continues to grow, more and more global investors are going to clamor for their piece of the pie. And those who get to the party early might get the biggest slices of all.

Michael



*** Market Update for January 21, 2005

S&P 500:
-7.54 points (-0.64%)
Open: 1,175.41
Close: 1,167.87

DJIA:
-78.48 points (-0.75%)
Open: 10,471
Close: 10,392.99

NASDAQ:
-11.61 points (-0.75%)
Open: 2,053.15
Close: 2,034.27