CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

E hoje Cramer voltou a escrever um artigo sobre a Sirius:

"Why Sirius Slid"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/9/2004 9:20 AM EST

"Did Sirius (SIRI:Nasdaq - commentary - research) fall down like a cheap suit, as my television partner, Larry Kudlow, said on the show last night? Or was that move pretty much a given, considering Sirius' climb and the triple-blitz from The Wall Street Journal, Bear Stearns and Smith Barney? And, more important, is the stock low enough to buy again?

As someone who, right here at $9, said selling the stock looked smart, I figure I got a clean conscience on this one. My take: This is a news and momentum stock and unless you have news, you have no momentum.

I think that Sirius has come back to earth and will stay on earth until we get something concrete about its take-up rate. Unfortunately, concrete here is a bit like finding out the clinical trial results for a biotech. All the good stuff occurs in anticipation of the positive news, and then we get another selloff.

But something has happened in the under-$10 world that is refreshing: People recognize that it is OK to like a company's stock if it sells at $4 and to dislike a company's stock if it sells at $9 -- even though it's the same company. That's a major breakthrough. One of the things that has troubled me for so many years around here is that people will email me, "I thought you loved Sirius." I would answer, "You bet I did, when it was at $3, and $4, and $6 and even $8. But at $9, enough's enough."

It's all part of the rethinking of the market that people who were burned at the turn of the millennium are doing. They recognize that buying and holding is wrong, that buying and homeworking is right and that there are levels where even the best stocks become sales. We saw that level for Sirius at $9.

I don't expect to see it again anytime soon."

(in ww.realmoney.com)

este tipo esta na CNBC "todos" os dia e a muita gente q o segue va-se la saber pq? mas hoje c\ um downgrade feito a esta não teve hipoteses , foi muita gente a falar mal dela depois de uma longa e forte subita.....FOI O ESTOIRO

Este tipo deve ter uns qtos informers não?

Escrever este artigo no anterior aos downgrades dados hoje é muita pontaria . Bom timing tb Ulisses .

Já agora, a SIR está a cair cerca de 19% hoje...

Um abraço
Nunofaustino

"Take Some Sirius Profits Off the Table"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/7/2004 11:14 AM EST


"Sirius (SIRI:Nasdaq - commentary - research) has gotten too hot, even for me, and I am a huge, huge believer in Sirius.

First, my credentials. Right here on this site, when Sirius Satellite was at $2.42, I wrote on Aug. 3 that this was the stock to buy. I said that it made too much sense, and put it first in my speculative basket of little-dollar stocks that I thought would go higher.

When it consequently doubled, I said there were more good things in store and that I thought these fellows really got the program: the NFL, the personality-driven programming, with excellent financial management from a terrific CFO, David Frear.

When the stock ticked at $5, I said hold on, we go higher, stock is telling you more good things ahead. Even at $6 and $7 I could make the case for it, as first Howard Stern and then Mel Karmazin came on. Stern just needs to convert 1/10th of his listeners to paid. Karmazin just needs to work some of his magic to make the market capitalization make sense.

But now? Now as it threatens $9, we have to invoke Mrs. Cramer's Rule: Bulls make money, bears make money and pigs? Well, they just get slaughtered.

Look at the comps. XM Satellite Radio (XMSR:Nasdaq - commentary - research), well ahead of Sirius toward profitability with an excellent management, now sells at 16 times sales. Sirius sells at 47 times sales. Remember, I am stipulating that Sirius is great, but it isn't three times as great as XM, no way, especially given how far behind it was just a year ago.

OK, so many of you think, "Well, XM is too cheap. XM, at $7 billion, just needs to catch up to Sirius at $10 billion, even though XM has $200 million in revenue and Sirius has just $60 million."

Well, then, let's consider Comcast (CMCSA:Nasdaq - commentary - research). The comparison's valid: they both are cable models. Both require people to pay for goods. But look at this difference: I pay $140 a month for my Comcast product. I pay $140 a year for my Sirius product. Right now, though, the market says each Comcast customer is worth $3,350. Each Sirius customer is worth $5,000. That's crazy, that's delusional, that's nuts!

To me, the equation is simple. No matter what metric you come up with, Sirius is overvalued -- and again, I love the finance team, I love Mel, I even love Howard. But it's time to take some Sirius off the table. Don't let greed get the best of you. "

(in www.realmoney.com)