Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[alex01]

Market Force: Bearish/Neutral. Watch for lower prices again if we get a Mega Bearish High 5. If not, then support on early lows should come in for a mild bounce off the lower early numbers.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Wednesday, November 17, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 6.40 Value Area
Range: 2.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,182.20
Open 1,181.80
1,181.25-1,180.25 Sell Pivot
1,179.30
Close 1,177.40
1,176.70
Low 1,175.80
1,174.75-1,175.75 Buy Pivot
1,168.90 Pit Bull MA



Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, November 16, 2004:
S@1181.25/B@1177.75 +3.50

(2nd Level short at 1179.25/.50 covered for +1.00 at 1178.25)

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Wednesday's action.

On Tuesday we got the choppy, lower price action as suggested in the Morning Call Headline with a small range day overall like Monday.

It appears the market is looking to take a rest now and this could either spell a week or 2 of this choppy to lower type trading or we could get a stronger sell off.

I am opting for continued choppy, lower trading. It appears the underlying bullishness is fairly intact and we will probably see the institutions come in with buying to support any stronger sell offs. I think overall we want to trade with this script in mind over the next month as we head into Christmas.

Here are my Wrap Up comments for today on our Live Service

By the way...each day on our live service after the market opens I review the Recommended Trade Setups section and detail the strongest possibility for the type of setup we will have for the mornings trade. Using the Market Force Oscillator we then hone in on the best way to trade the setup we expect to see. This is truly unique in the trading industry and gives the trader a crystal clear picture of where the market is going, the kind of response we are looking for from the High 5, and what would occur that would support or deny continuation of that action. We also give exact, specific price levels to watch for as they are developed by the MFO.

"Today was an amazing day as we had a Mega Bearish High 5 most of the day yet the market refused to sell off strongly. This is a sign of good underlying support.

We came in today looking to get short and got a signal on our Market Force Oscillator to go short at 1181.25. Prices started pulling back creating the Hour One low at 1177.25. We held short most of the session looking for continued lower hammering based on what we saw in the tape. The market kept making weak rally attempts towards 1179-1179.50.

On the first attempt I suggested loading 2nd Level short positions for those who wanted extra exposure. Later on the 2nd move up there we recommended exiting the 2nd Level short at around 1178.25 for a +1.00 gain.

As the session wore on I got signals that we were most likely going to continue to stagnate so I suggested covering the short and our fill area was 1177.75 for a +3.50 profit."

Today's Call & Briefing:
For today we want to be willing to wait for at least the first hour to complete and watch for specific readings in the High 5 and the charts.

Main reason is that today we could either get a very bullish bounce off the low put in on Tuesday OR we are going to see a 2nd Level Sell off that could squash the prices down quite a bit.

If we are going much lower then we would probably need some specific news that would serve as a catalyst for that. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) today could be a catalyst for some specific market action which comes out before the Stock market opens. We should have some indication of the response before the bell rings.

Overall, the Market Force short term indicators for today are Bearish with a Neutral backing. This means that we are expecting lower prices but with the underlying support we could just keep getting this choppy, low range action.

The High 5 should give us good hints today but surprisingly they were a bit misleading yesterday. The highly Mega Bearish TRIN along with weak Nasdaq and Dow failed to really get the S&P500 selling off. This was surprising. So with this in mind we will continue to trade cautious and SCALP what we can get rather than be too concerned about seeing a larger scale trend form intraday.

RECOMMENDED TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: If we see prices move towards the Hour One low as the first pivot hit and the High 5 are Mega Bearish again we could see prices sell off strongly today. We would look to short the Hour One low on a bounce off that low.

If the High 5 are not that bearish but more neutral or even bullish then we want to look for Buying to hold up on the Hour One low. Possibility of a Breakout buy is there but I would rather expect on a higher opening and early move higher we will see the Hour One breakout sell off.

If the High 5 are neutral at the time of the Hour One pivot getting hit first then look to sell at the pivot. If more bullish with Nasdaq up some and TRIN below .90 then look to add 2-3 points to the Hour One high, let it play out some, and then look to sell. SCALP over 3-4 points if neutral High 5.

Value Area: 1,176.70 - 1,179.30
Trade holding below the Top of the Value Area is going to stay weak. Based on the above description of possible scenarios look for Weakness on the Hour One low getting hit first if below the bottom of VA and Mega Bearish High 5.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,174.75 - 1,175.75
The buy pivot is right under the Value Area so we want to watch this support zone.

-4.25 is 1170.50 and this would bring us right to the spot to tap the Pit Bull almost with good support coming in there for today if they continue to sell off.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,181.25 - 1,180.25
Compare this price to the Hour One High and the setup with the High 5.

We want to be careful selling too early today if the High 5 are semi bullish. Underlying support suggests we could trade up to the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1185.50.

If bullish High 5 we could run through there and attempt another run up to the 1191 number discussed in last previous 2 Morning Call briefings.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,168.90
This is strong support for today on a sell off below the Buy Pivot target.

Like Tuesday, if we see prices move to the Buy Pivot target area near 1175.00 and just STALL they are most likely going to move lower with that price rejection.

Pro Trader's Action
Today I am going to be willing to let the market trade past first hour and beyond most likely unless there is a clear, Mega Bearish sell off reaction to the CPI.

Not sure what to expect and with the way we have been trading choppy lately I don't want to get into a non trending day.

So the plan is to wait for the market to reveal itself and then enter at a good reflex reversal spot where we can assume a continuation and also place a tight stop.

Good luck today with your trading and I'll see you in the action. Mohan