Mohan 16/11/04
Enviado: 16/11/2004 10:59Market Force: Neutral/Bearish. Looking for the possibility of a stronger pullback today. Watch for Bearish High 5 confirmation with High TRIN and VIX/VXO.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Tuesday, November 16, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 5.70 Value Area
Range: 3.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,188.00-1,187.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,186.20
Close 1,185.90
1,185.00
Open 1,183.00
1,182.25-1,183.25 Buy Pivot
1,182.00
Low 1,180.50
1,164.20 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, November 15, 2004:
S@1183.00/B@1184.25 -1.25
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome to Tuesday's Action.
Monday, which is the most bullish day of the week usually, was pretty quiet. We got a small 3 point actual trading range approximately with pressure on the early highs as stated in our Headline Call shown on the chart above.
The market appeared early to want to breakdown but the High 5 were just not weak enough later in the session to cave in.
I was looking for a choppy pullback for Monday and will again today. The pullback on Monday was only a few points and when we are sitting in a trade waiting for it to come to fruition 2-3 points is just "wiggle room" in the S&P EMini.
Here are my Wrap Up comments from the Live Service.
"Today was a relatively quiet day in the markets with a tight range with most trading going on in about a 3 pt. range.
The market hit the Hour One high first today at 1184.50 and stayed weak most of the day. We got short at 1183.00 and saw prices drop below the Hour One low of 1181.00 near 1180.50.
There were 2 bounces back above 1184.50 B/O and we kept holding short looking for a drop below 1180 later in the session which never materialized as the High 5 stayed neutral.
We held into the final half hour of the session but finally had to get out when we saw prices hold above 1184.00 again. Out at 1184.25 for a -1.25 loss."
Today's Call & Briefing:
The early PPI (Producer Price Index) may have some effect on the opening market today. We will be looking for early rallies to get hit with selling UNLESS for some reason the PPI creates a strong bullish atmosphere.
Market is extended a bit here on a temporary basis and we are looking for a choppy pullback today.
Right now big money managers are concerned about "missing the rally" into the end of the year as their performance bonuses are tied in with being on board such moves. Therefore it appears they are taking any pullbacks as opportunities to load stock positions.
If indeed this is the case any drops will continue with this "relentless bull" type trade where we don't see solid trending sell offs. Still from our Market Force indicators there are underlying forces suggesting we could get a strong pullback anytime. So we are trading with both factors in mind.
Depends on the price momentum and the High 5 appearance.
RECOMMENDED TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: Today look for an early bounce up towards 1188-91 to be a selling zone. I will be watching for MFO formations that give us good entries as long as the High 5 are not showing strong bullish readings.
So watch this zone for a trade. LIVE UPDATE TRADERS BE READY TO TRADE EARLY BEFORE END OF FIRST HOUR IF NECESSARY.
On the buy side: if we get an early drop that stretches lower but finds support with the High 5 NOT showing bearish readings then we may find a continued up trend today off the early lows. This could also tie in with an Hour One buy but I am leaning towards staying on the sell side expecting surprises to come in that direction.
Watch particularly for High 5 readings on the Hour One low -2/3 points for support or if mega bearish, continued lower move.
Value Area: 1,182.00 - 1,185.00
This tight VA zone should give us some bias hints if prices rally above this area and then pullback into it. That would be a bearish indication.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,182.25 - 1,183.25
No trade at this pivot today. Watch for the Hour One low for better opportunity to measure the buy side.
-4.25 stop/pivot is 1178.00 and trade below that will set up lower prices. We were looking for this number on Monday but they couldn't crack 1180.00 so that is first support for today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,188.00 - 1,187.00
We want to watch this zone just above 1188 as a sell zone today early. Up to 1191.00 which was in our Headline Call yesterday.
It is possible that the PPI may set this up or if interpreted as bearish the prices may just take off to the downside right away.
1192.25 is the stop/pivot and it is expected that will hold the buying back.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,164.20
As the Pit Bull moves up to an important support zone of 1166 it is possible that we may see some of the current prices come down to meet this area. 1170 is an important support now and as mentioned earlier there is large money looking to get aboard a Year End Rally somewhere on these dips.
So just keep this in mind as we try and hone in on a strong support area.
Brave traders can look for some 3 month out calls too to take advantage of this bullish setup going into the end of the year.
Pro Trader's Action
For today I still want to focus on the short side if the High 5 continues to support that idea.
All the underlying Market Force indicators are suggesting a choppy pullback is in line. Today the PPI may have something to do with this... maybe not.
Either way, it is expected we will get some lower pressure going in a stronger way and ideally today off a higher early run up.
Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Tuesday, November 16, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 5.70 Value Area
Range: 3.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,188.00-1,187.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,186.20
Close 1,185.90
1,185.00
Open 1,183.00
1,182.25-1,183.25 Buy Pivot
1,182.00
Low 1,180.50
1,164.20 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, November 15, 2004:
S@1183.00/B@1184.25 -1.25
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome to Tuesday's Action.
Monday, which is the most bullish day of the week usually, was pretty quiet. We got a small 3 point actual trading range approximately with pressure on the early highs as stated in our Headline Call shown on the chart above.
The market appeared early to want to breakdown but the High 5 were just not weak enough later in the session to cave in.
I was looking for a choppy pullback for Monday and will again today. The pullback on Monday was only a few points and when we are sitting in a trade waiting for it to come to fruition 2-3 points is just "wiggle room" in the S&P EMini.
Here are my Wrap Up comments from the Live Service.
"Today was a relatively quiet day in the markets with a tight range with most trading going on in about a 3 pt. range.
The market hit the Hour One high first today at 1184.50 and stayed weak most of the day. We got short at 1183.00 and saw prices drop below the Hour One low of 1181.00 near 1180.50.
There were 2 bounces back above 1184.50 B/O and we kept holding short looking for a drop below 1180 later in the session which never materialized as the High 5 stayed neutral.
We held into the final half hour of the session but finally had to get out when we saw prices hold above 1184.00 again. Out at 1184.25 for a -1.25 loss."
Today's Call & Briefing:
The early PPI (Producer Price Index) may have some effect on the opening market today. We will be looking for early rallies to get hit with selling UNLESS for some reason the PPI creates a strong bullish atmosphere.
Market is extended a bit here on a temporary basis and we are looking for a choppy pullback today.
Right now big money managers are concerned about "missing the rally" into the end of the year as their performance bonuses are tied in with being on board such moves. Therefore it appears they are taking any pullbacks as opportunities to load stock positions.
If indeed this is the case any drops will continue with this "relentless bull" type trade where we don't see solid trending sell offs. Still from our Market Force indicators there are underlying forces suggesting we could get a strong pullback anytime. So we are trading with both factors in mind.
Depends on the price momentum and the High 5 appearance.
RECOMMENDED TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: Today look for an early bounce up towards 1188-91 to be a selling zone. I will be watching for MFO formations that give us good entries as long as the High 5 are not showing strong bullish readings.
So watch this zone for a trade. LIVE UPDATE TRADERS BE READY TO TRADE EARLY BEFORE END OF FIRST HOUR IF NECESSARY.
On the buy side: if we get an early drop that stretches lower but finds support with the High 5 NOT showing bearish readings then we may find a continued up trend today off the early lows. This could also tie in with an Hour One buy but I am leaning towards staying on the sell side expecting surprises to come in that direction.
Watch particularly for High 5 readings on the Hour One low -2/3 points for support or if mega bearish, continued lower move.
Value Area: 1,182.00 - 1,185.00
This tight VA zone should give us some bias hints if prices rally above this area and then pullback into it. That would be a bearish indication.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,182.25 - 1,183.25
No trade at this pivot today. Watch for the Hour One low for better opportunity to measure the buy side.
-4.25 stop/pivot is 1178.00 and trade below that will set up lower prices. We were looking for this number on Monday but they couldn't crack 1180.00 so that is first support for today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,188.00 - 1,187.00
We want to watch this zone just above 1188 as a sell zone today early. Up to 1191.00 which was in our Headline Call yesterday.
It is possible that the PPI may set this up or if interpreted as bearish the prices may just take off to the downside right away.
1192.25 is the stop/pivot and it is expected that will hold the buying back.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,164.20
As the Pit Bull moves up to an important support zone of 1166 it is possible that we may see some of the current prices come down to meet this area. 1170 is an important support now and as mentioned earlier there is large money looking to get aboard a Year End Rally somewhere on these dips.
So just keep this in mind as we try and hone in on a strong support area.
Brave traders can look for some 3 month out calls too to take advantage of this bullish setup going into the end of the year.
Pro Trader's Action
For today I still want to focus on the short side if the High 5 continues to support that idea.
All the underlying Market Force indicators are suggesting a choppy pullback is in line. Today the PPI may have something to do with this... maybe not.
Either way, it is expected we will get some lower pressure going in a stronger way and ideally today off a higher early run up.
Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan