Crude Oil Falls to Lowest ...
Enviado: 15/11/2004 12:13Crude Oil Falls to Lowest in Almost Two Months on Inventories
Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures fell for the fifth day in six, reaching a two-month low, on speculation rising U.S. inventories and refining output will ensure heating oil supplies are adequate during the winter.
Imports, stockpile levels and refinery processing rates have all risen for several weeks in the U.S. from low levels in September caused by storm-related damage. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is producing the most oil since 1979. Royal Dutch/Shell Group Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer said yesterday world supplies are plentiful, and he expects prices to decline over the next year as demand slows.
``Prices were pushed up by the disruption of Hurricane Ivan but now most of the Gulf of Mexico facilities are back up and running,'' said Jonathan Copus, an analyst at Investec Henderson Crosthwaite in London. ``OPEC is pumping at high levels,'' helping prices fall, he said.
Brent crude oil futures for January settlement fell as much as 88 cents, or 2 percent, to $42.83 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange as of 10:53 a.m. The less- actively traded December contract, which expires later today, was down $1.06 at $41.25.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December light, sweet crude oil was down 58 cents at $46.74 a barrel. New York prices are down 16 percent from an Oct. 25 record of $55.67, and are up 44 percent so far this year.
Damping Demand
The rally in oil prices during the past year is likely to damp demand, leaving enough capacity for prices to begin easing, Shell's Van der Veer said. Shell is Europe's second-largest publicly traded oil company, behind BP Plc.
``In a year's time, prices will ease,'' Van der Veer said in an interview on the British Broadcasting Corp.'s ``Breakfast with Frost'' program. ``At the moment, there are enough stocks. There is no real alarm.''
Nigerian labor unions plan to begin a crippling general strike tomorrow to force the government to reduce domestic gasoline prices. The white collar oil workers' union, known by the acronym Pengassan, said it won't immediately try to shut down Nigerian exports, the source of a fifth of U.S. oil imports, and that production may be affected only if the strike lasts more than a week.
Survey Prediction
Oil futures will probably slide this week on increased global production and speculation demand growth is slowing, according to a survey by Bloomberg News survey of 47 traders and analysts on Nov. 11.
Thirty, or 64 percent, of those surveyed, said oil prices would drop. It was the most bearish reading in the 31 weeks the survey has been run. Thirteen expected prices to rise and four said oil would be little changed. A week earlier, 50 percent said prices would decline.
``Finally the fundamentals are catching up,'' and causing prices to fall, said Anthony Nunan, manager of international petroleum business at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. ``The inventory level is still relatively tight going into the winter, but not tight enough to justify $55 a barrel.''
Economic growth in Japan, the third-biggest oil consumer, slowed to a 0.3 percent annual pace in the third quarter, a government report said last week. The economy of the 12 nations sharing the euro grew at the slowest pace in more than a year in the third quarter as record oil prices crimped global demand, prompting the European Commission to cut its forecast for the current quarter.
Inventories
U.S. crude oil inventories have jumped 8 percent to 291.5 million barrels since Sept. 17 as imports surged, according to the Energy Department's report on Nov. 10. Refineries have boosted their operating rates and output of distillate fuels, including heating oil, the department's figures show.
``The stock levels are high,'' said P. Sugavanam, director of finance at Indian Oil Corp., the country's largest refiner. ``With such inventory position, we may see crude oil falling to $45 a barrel in the coming weeks in spite of the winter demand for heating oil.''
Refineries operated at 92.6 percent of their capacity in the week ended Nov. 5, a 3.2 percentage-point increase from a week earlier, the department said. It was the first time they exceeded 90 percent of capacity since the week ended Sept. 10, before Hurricane Ivan hit the Gulf of Mexico, shutting many refineries and crimping imports and oil production.
Iraq Attack
Oil prices have risen to a record this year partly on concern terrorist attacks may disrupt production in the Middle East. Four bombs exploded near oil wells in the Kirkuk region of Iraq, triggering fires in the field at Al-Khabaza, Agence France- Presse reported, citing a security official.
The wells, 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Kirkuk, were attacked yesterday, the news service said, quoting Anuza Daali, security officer for the field. Attempts are being made to put the fires out, and it isn't clear whether production was affected, AFP said.
(15/11/04 Bloomberg)
Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures fell for the fifth day in six, reaching a two-month low, on speculation rising U.S. inventories and refining output will ensure heating oil supplies are adequate during the winter.
Imports, stockpile levels and refinery processing rates have all risen for several weeks in the U.S. from low levels in September caused by storm-related damage. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is producing the most oil since 1979. Royal Dutch/Shell Group Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer said yesterday world supplies are plentiful, and he expects prices to decline over the next year as demand slows.
``Prices were pushed up by the disruption of Hurricane Ivan but now most of the Gulf of Mexico facilities are back up and running,'' said Jonathan Copus, an analyst at Investec Henderson Crosthwaite in London. ``OPEC is pumping at high levels,'' helping prices fall, he said.
Brent crude oil futures for January settlement fell as much as 88 cents, or 2 percent, to $42.83 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange as of 10:53 a.m. The less- actively traded December contract, which expires later today, was down $1.06 at $41.25.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December light, sweet crude oil was down 58 cents at $46.74 a barrel. New York prices are down 16 percent from an Oct. 25 record of $55.67, and are up 44 percent so far this year.
Damping Demand
The rally in oil prices during the past year is likely to damp demand, leaving enough capacity for prices to begin easing, Shell's Van der Veer said. Shell is Europe's second-largest publicly traded oil company, behind BP Plc.
``In a year's time, prices will ease,'' Van der Veer said in an interview on the British Broadcasting Corp.'s ``Breakfast with Frost'' program. ``At the moment, there are enough stocks. There is no real alarm.''
Nigerian labor unions plan to begin a crippling general strike tomorrow to force the government to reduce domestic gasoline prices. The white collar oil workers' union, known by the acronym Pengassan, said it won't immediately try to shut down Nigerian exports, the source of a fifth of U.S. oil imports, and that production may be affected only if the strike lasts more than a week.
Survey Prediction
Oil futures will probably slide this week on increased global production and speculation demand growth is slowing, according to a survey by Bloomberg News survey of 47 traders and analysts on Nov. 11.
Thirty, or 64 percent, of those surveyed, said oil prices would drop. It was the most bearish reading in the 31 weeks the survey has been run. Thirteen expected prices to rise and four said oil would be little changed. A week earlier, 50 percent said prices would decline.
``Finally the fundamentals are catching up,'' and causing prices to fall, said Anthony Nunan, manager of international petroleum business at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. ``The inventory level is still relatively tight going into the winter, but not tight enough to justify $55 a barrel.''
Economic growth in Japan, the third-biggest oil consumer, slowed to a 0.3 percent annual pace in the third quarter, a government report said last week. The economy of the 12 nations sharing the euro grew at the slowest pace in more than a year in the third quarter as record oil prices crimped global demand, prompting the European Commission to cut its forecast for the current quarter.
Inventories
U.S. crude oil inventories have jumped 8 percent to 291.5 million barrels since Sept. 17 as imports surged, according to the Energy Department's report on Nov. 10. Refineries have boosted their operating rates and output of distillate fuels, including heating oil, the department's figures show.
``The stock levels are high,'' said P. Sugavanam, director of finance at Indian Oil Corp., the country's largest refiner. ``With such inventory position, we may see crude oil falling to $45 a barrel in the coming weeks in spite of the winter demand for heating oil.''
Refineries operated at 92.6 percent of their capacity in the week ended Nov. 5, a 3.2 percentage-point increase from a week earlier, the department said. It was the first time they exceeded 90 percent of capacity since the week ended Sept. 10, before Hurricane Ivan hit the Gulf of Mexico, shutting many refineries and crimping imports and oil production.
Iraq Attack
Oil prices have risen to a record this year partly on concern terrorist attacks may disrupt production in the Middle East. Four bombs exploded near oil wells in the Kirkuk region of Iraq, triggering fires in the field at Al-Khabaza, Agence France- Presse reported, citing a security official.
The wells, 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Kirkuk, were attacked yesterday, the news service said, quoting Anuza Daali, security officer for the field. Attempts are being made to put the fires out, and it isn't clear whether production was affected, AFP said.
(15/11/04 Bloomberg)