Mohan 15/11/04
Enviado: 15/11/2004 11:26Market Force: Bullish/Neutral. Watch for prices to find resistance near 1191.50 and begin to weaken.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Monday, November 15, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 13.00 Value Area
Range: 9.30 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,187.75-1,186.75 Sell Pivot
1,184.80
High 1,184.80
Close 1,182.70
1,175.50
1,174.75-1,175.75 Buy Pivot
Open 1,174.30
Low 1,171.80
1,158.70 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, November 12, 2004:
1)S@1173.75/B@1174.50 -.75
2)S@1175.00/B@1175.75 -.75....
3)S@1175.25/B@1178.00 -2.75...
4)S@1178.99/B@1178.25 -.25.....
5)S@1177.25/B@1178.75 -1.50..
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome back from the weekend.
On Friday we were looking for continued higher prices that were expected to pullback sometime later mid session.
The market ran up some, went flat, and then continued the relentless bullish move higher putting in an excellent move up to the 1184.00 area.
A lot of bears have thrown in the towel on Friday and this could be the start of some weakness getting ready to show up temporarily. However, the bull is expected to continue through the end of the year as we have been discussing.
Here are my Wrap Up comments on the Live Updates we did.
"The market opened about flat today near 1174.50 with prices drifting lower towards 1172.00. I wanted to hit the short side today to see if the market was ready to start pulling back.
We took several shots at the short side with 3 of the trades using very tight stops, 2 for .75 and one for .25. I held the BreakOut short longer using a 2.75 stop which got hit and that was what threw the day off some.
Our final trade was an attempt to see the market finally start breaking down at the BreakOut price of 1175.25 +3.00 pts. They just wouldn't drop today due to bullish underlying strength and later ramped up further showing another rally to 1184.00."
Today's Call & Briefing:
It appears that on Friday many of the bears capitulated and threw in the towel finally getting bullish. This could be a sign of prices starting to find a temprary peak and start to show some signs of a pullback.
Now, this is not a bearish call but simply an observation that we could be ready to see prices get a bit choppy over the next few days.
In a bullish situation like this in which we are expecting higher prices into the end of the year when we hit an exhaustion point what occurs is prices get choppy for a few days. This is not the characteristic "pull back" that traders look for but more or less just a choppy stretch lower for a few days.
Shorts on these days are often good scalps but don't seem to trend that well. We will be watching for such opportunities today but being very willing to scalp the short (means look for 4-6 points as opposed to a larger scale move).
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: Today there is a good chance that we could stretch as high as 1191.50 before prices start to find a peak.
If this ends up being the case we want to watch for another BreakOut attempt above the Hour One high which corresponds to the 1187-88.00 area and look for a move just a few points above that to hold back the buying.
If this ends up working out we could get a good shorting opportunity there that could make a decent pullback for us. There is a chance the markets could start showing weakness a lot earlier in the session today just after the first hour of trading so we want to be prepared for that.
Depending on how the High 5 look we will be watching for the chance of seeing the Hour One low get hit first, attempt to rally and then pull back to the H1 Low and drop further. This has a good potential of occuring today.
Value Area: 1,175.50 - 1,184.80
With the top of the Value Area occuring at 1184.00 area any higher moves that fall into this VA could be the first sign of the market getting a lower chop.
Support is 10 points lower at the bottom of the VA which would support our idea that any pullbacks could be mild and within this range.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,174.75 - 1,175.75
The bottom of the VA is also the exact area of the Buy Pivot target so expect this double support to hold today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,187.75 - 1,186.75
As mentioned above, we are looking for 1191.50 to hold back the buying and this number corresponds to the +4.25 stop/pivot of 1192.00
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,158.70
We are still well above the Pit Bull but with any moves today to 1191 area we could start to see this gap tighten a bit.
Looking for continued bullish action into the end of the year we would not expect the gap to close completely. Watch for support to come in at strong 1164-66 area.
Pro Trader's Action
If we get a flat to higher opening today and an early move up towards the 1191 area we could find that prices will experience some choppy weakness later today.
If this occurs we could possibly see some trending lower but we are just not going to be looking for larger scale moves.
On Friday, as mentioned, a lot of bears relented and joined the bullish side and you can hardly blame them. What was expected to be an early bullish day with pullback later in the session turned out to be a continued ramp up into the close which drew the bears in to the bullish side finally.
Let's see if our scenario pans out as expected today by looking for the High 5 to show early signs of neutrality and then later roll to a more bearish appearance.
Good luck with your trades and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Monday, November 15, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 13.00 Value Area
Range: 9.30 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,187.75-1,186.75 Sell Pivot
1,184.80
High 1,184.80
Close 1,182.70
1,175.50
1,174.75-1,175.75 Buy Pivot
Open 1,174.30
Low 1,171.80
1,158.70 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, November 12, 2004:
1)S@1173.75/B@1174.50 -.75
2)S@1175.00/B@1175.75 -.75....
3)S@1175.25/B@1178.00 -2.75...
4)S@1178.99/B@1178.25 -.25.....
5)S@1177.25/B@1178.75 -1.50..
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome back from the weekend.
On Friday we were looking for continued higher prices that were expected to pullback sometime later mid session.
The market ran up some, went flat, and then continued the relentless bullish move higher putting in an excellent move up to the 1184.00 area.
A lot of bears have thrown in the towel on Friday and this could be the start of some weakness getting ready to show up temporarily. However, the bull is expected to continue through the end of the year as we have been discussing.
Here are my Wrap Up comments on the Live Updates we did.
"The market opened about flat today near 1174.50 with prices drifting lower towards 1172.00. I wanted to hit the short side today to see if the market was ready to start pulling back.
We took several shots at the short side with 3 of the trades using very tight stops, 2 for .75 and one for .25. I held the BreakOut short longer using a 2.75 stop which got hit and that was what threw the day off some.
Our final trade was an attempt to see the market finally start breaking down at the BreakOut price of 1175.25 +3.00 pts. They just wouldn't drop today due to bullish underlying strength and later ramped up further showing another rally to 1184.00."
Today's Call & Briefing:
It appears that on Friday many of the bears capitulated and threw in the towel finally getting bullish. This could be a sign of prices starting to find a temprary peak and start to show some signs of a pullback.
Now, this is not a bearish call but simply an observation that we could be ready to see prices get a bit choppy over the next few days.
In a bullish situation like this in which we are expecting higher prices into the end of the year when we hit an exhaustion point what occurs is prices get choppy for a few days. This is not the characteristic "pull back" that traders look for but more or less just a choppy stretch lower for a few days.
Shorts on these days are often good scalps but don't seem to trend that well. We will be watching for such opportunities today but being very willing to scalp the short (means look for 4-6 points as opposed to a larger scale move).
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: Today there is a good chance that we could stretch as high as 1191.50 before prices start to find a peak.
If this ends up being the case we want to watch for another BreakOut attempt above the Hour One high which corresponds to the 1187-88.00 area and look for a move just a few points above that to hold back the buying.
If this ends up working out we could get a good shorting opportunity there that could make a decent pullback for us. There is a chance the markets could start showing weakness a lot earlier in the session today just after the first hour of trading so we want to be prepared for that.
Depending on how the High 5 look we will be watching for the chance of seeing the Hour One low get hit first, attempt to rally and then pull back to the H1 Low and drop further. This has a good potential of occuring today.
Value Area: 1,175.50 - 1,184.80
With the top of the Value Area occuring at 1184.00 area any higher moves that fall into this VA could be the first sign of the market getting a lower chop.
Support is 10 points lower at the bottom of the VA which would support our idea that any pullbacks could be mild and within this range.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,174.75 - 1,175.75
The bottom of the VA is also the exact area of the Buy Pivot target so expect this double support to hold today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,187.75 - 1,186.75
As mentioned above, we are looking for 1191.50 to hold back the buying and this number corresponds to the +4.25 stop/pivot of 1192.00
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,158.70
We are still well above the Pit Bull but with any moves today to 1191 area we could start to see this gap tighten a bit.
Looking for continued bullish action into the end of the year we would not expect the gap to close completely. Watch for support to come in at strong 1164-66 area.
Pro Trader's Action
If we get a flat to higher opening today and an early move up towards the 1191 area we could find that prices will experience some choppy weakness later today.
If this occurs we could possibly see some trending lower but we are just not going to be looking for larger scale moves.
On Friday, as mentioned, a lot of bears relented and joined the bullish side and you can hardly blame them. What was expected to be an early bullish day with pullback later in the session turned out to be a continued ramp up into the close which drew the bears in to the bullish side finally.
Let's see if our scenario pans out as expected today by looking for the High 5 to show early signs of neutrality and then later roll to a more bearish appearance.
Good luck with your trades and I'll see you in the action. Mohan