Mohan 12/11/04
Enviado: 12/11/2004 12:03Market Force: Bullish/Neutral. Look for early higher prices to sell off after morning session.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Friday, November 12, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 9.90 Value Area
Range: 6.70 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,177.75-1,176.75 Sell Pivot
High 1,175.90
1,175.70
Close 1,173.70
1,169.00
1,167.75-1,168.75 Buy Pivot
Open 1,166.80
Low 1,166.00
1,153.40 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, November 11, 2004:
S@1166.00/B@1167.50 -1.50
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning.
On Thursday we saw lighter volume than normal but the markets showed bullish characteristics by opening slightly up, holding the higher move, and then gradually pressing higher. We had expected the markets could sell off some holding below 1166.00 but this did not occur.
This leads me to think we will keep grinding higher into the Christmas period so we want to trade along this line on these flat to slightly lower early moves that find support. More on this below
Here are my Wrap Up comments for the Live Update Service.
"Today it was expected that we might see slower volume due to the U.S. Veterans day holiday.
The morning started out fairly quiet and the market was mixed. I wanted to hit the short side in anticipation that we would see the Hour One low get hit again and sell off.
Short at 1166.00/.25 prices stalled a bit and then held higher. I didn't want to take much risk on the trade and when they hit our mental stop at 1167.50 we got out for a -1.50 loss.
After watching the market for the next hour or so with the volume continuing to be slow I decided to stand aside. The Hour One pivots were 1165.75 and 1169.00 on the high. Later in the session prices hit the Hour One high, stalled some, and then gradually moved higher above our 1173.50 stop/pivot above the Sell Pivot target and hit 1176.00 on the highs.
The breakout was a gradual sneak up type move yet showing bullish characteristics. The market does not seem to want to pull back which suggests we could continue higher through Christmas with some small pullbacks along the way."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Here is the pattern that I want us all to watch for.
The market rallies or is down slightly one day. Next day when it is expected we will see a sell off what we get is flat to slightly lower opening and SUPPORT THAT REFUSES TO SELL OFF. These are the signs of impending higher prices moves. I think that is what we are going to get going into the Christmas period.
Now keep in mind it's not as simple as just buying anywhere and waiting for the rally. This all has to be done with precision and we need to reverse overcooked rallies.
I think we may get one this morning up towards 1180-81.00 where we would look to sell.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: First, for today we want to see that we get a SLIGHTLY HIGHER OPEN and an early press higher. Once the first hour is complete we can then look to move in on the Hour One BreakOut if that is what we get.
Look to Sell the Hour One BreakOut and if the High 5 are showing Bullish or Neutral characteristics then look to add 2-3 points to that B/O high to sell.
We could be ready to sell off harder today. Will this be off the open?
Not expected BUT if we do see the Hour One low come in first of the Hour One pivots we could sell off BELOW the Hour One low. It depends on how the High 5 are looking after things warm up during the first 45 minutes.
What we would look for is the first Hour One pivot to be the low, see prices move through that, then rally approximately +3 pts off of that Hour One low. We would then look for a short spot to catch the next move lower. Depending on how strong the High 5 are we would look to hold em short for maybe 4-6 points or lower below the Hour One low.
I would prefer to sell the Hour One high today but we can trade em either way.
Value Area: 1,169.00 - 1,175.70
If the prices hold in this Value Area then we are looking for a more gradual prices erosion now that there should be more volume today.
Trading below 1169 gets us more bearish and we start watching 1166 again as support.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,167.75 - 1,168.75
Here is the Buy Pivot target right under the bottom of the Value Area. This area would be expected to hold up any selling IF THAT SELLING OCCURED FROM AN EARLY RALLY OR PRICE RISE.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,177.75 - 1,176.75
Watch this area for a sell but just slightly higher. We are going to wait for the first hour to finish so we can compare this area to the Hour One high.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,153.40
Pit Bull is closing in on the current prices but the rally keeps em at a distance supporting the bullish idea of a rally into Christmas.
It is expected we will see prices meet the Pit Bull before then, find support and start pressing higher again.
Pro Trader's Action
There is a good chance that we could get some explosive higher moves coming into the Christmas period and we want to keep that in mind.
A few months ago I was calling for a strong bullish back end quarter loaded market and that is what we appear to be getting.
Things are being kept fairly stable on the news and this is expected to remain steady into the New Year without any "surprises".
Let's see if we can get the early move higher today off the open, see prices hang up a bit, and then some pullback. Otherwise we can look at the High 5 and adapt to a stronger sell off if that is in the cards.
I would not expect support today on the Hour One low as we are a bit overcooked upside.
Good Luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Friday, November 12, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 9.90 Value Area
Range: 6.70 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,177.75-1,176.75 Sell Pivot
High 1,175.90
1,175.70
Close 1,173.70
1,169.00
1,167.75-1,168.75 Buy Pivot
Open 1,166.80
Low 1,166.00
1,153.40 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, November 11, 2004:
S@1166.00/B@1167.50 -1.50
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning.
On Thursday we saw lighter volume than normal but the markets showed bullish characteristics by opening slightly up, holding the higher move, and then gradually pressing higher. We had expected the markets could sell off some holding below 1166.00 but this did not occur.
This leads me to think we will keep grinding higher into the Christmas period so we want to trade along this line on these flat to slightly lower early moves that find support. More on this below
Here are my Wrap Up comments for the Live Update Service.
"Today it was expected that we might see slower volume due to the U.S. Veterans day holiday.
The morning started out fairly quiet and the market was mixed. I wanted to hit the short side in anticipation that we would see the Hour One low get hit again and sell off.
Short at 1166.00/.25 prices stalled a bit and then held higher. I didn't want to take much risk on the trade and when they hit our mental stop at 1167.50 we got out for a -1.50 loss.
After watching the market for the next hour or so with the volume continuing to be slow I decided to stand aside. The Hour One pivots were 1165.75 and 1169.00 on the high. Later in the session prices hit the Hour One high, stalled some, and then gradually moved higher above our 1173.50 stop/pivot above the Sell Pivot target and hit 1176.00 on the highs.
The breakout was a gradual sneak up type move yet showing bullish characteristics. The market does not seem to want to pull back which suggests we could continue higher through Christmas with some small pullbacks along the way."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Here is the pattern that I want us all to watch for.
The market rallies or is down slightly one day. Next day when it is expected we will see a sell off what we get is flat to slightly lower opening and SUPPORT THAT REFUSES TO SELL OFF. These are the signs of impending higher prices moves. I think that is what we are going to get going into the Christmas period.
Now keep in mind it's not as simple as just buying anywhere and waiting for the rally. This all has to be done with precision and we need to reverse overcooked rallies.
I think we may get one this morning up towards 1180-81.00 where we would look to sell.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: First, for today we want to see that we get a SLIGHTLY HIGHER OPEN and an early press higher. Once the first hour is complete we can then look to move in on the Hour One BreakOut if that is what we get.
Look to Sell the Hour One BreakOut and if the High 5 are showing Bullish or Neutral characteristics then look to add 2-3 points to that B/O high to sell.
We could be ready to sell off harder today. Will this be off the open?
Not expected BUT if we do see the Hour One low come in first of the Hour One pivots we could sell off BELOW the Hour One low. It depends on how the High 5 are looking after things warm up during the first 45 minutes.
What we would look for is the first Hour One pivot to be the low, see prices move through that, then rally approximately +3 pts off of that Hour One low. We would then look for a short spot to catch the next move lower. Depending on how strong the High 5 are we would look to hold em short for maybe 4-6 points or lower below the Hour One low.
I would prefer to sell the Hour One high today but we can trade em either way.
Value Area: 1,169.00 - 1,175.70
If the prices hold in this Value Area then we are looking for a more gradual prices erosion now that there should be more volume today.
Trading below 1169 gets us more bearish and we start watching 1166 again as support.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,167.75 - 1,168.75
Here is the Buy Pivot target right under the bottom of the Value Area. This area would be expected to hold up any selling IF THAT SELLING OCCURED FROM AN EARLY RALLY OR PRICE RISE.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,177.75 - 1,176.75
Watch this area for a sell but just slightly higher. We are going to wait for the first hour to finish so we can compare this area to the Hour One high.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,153.40
Pit Bull is closing in on the current prices but the rally keeps em at a distance supporting the bullish idea of a rally into Christmas.
It is expected we will see prices meet the Pit Bull before then, find support and start pressing higher again.
Pro Trader's Action
There is a good chance that we could get some explosive higher moves coming into the Christmas period and we want to keep that in mind.
A few months ago I was calling for a strong bullish back end quarter loaded market and that is what we appear to be getting.
Things are being kept fairly stable on the news and this is expected to remain steady into the New Year without any "surprises".
Let's see if we can get the early move higher today off the open, see prices hang up a bit, and then some pullback. Otherwise we can look at the High 5 and adapt to a stronger sell off if that is in the cards.
I would not expect support today on the Hour One low as we are a bit overcooked upside.
Good Luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan