Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[alex01]

No Headline Call today due to FOMC meeting and interest rate announcement. Market is bearish holding below 1166.00
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Wednesday, November 10, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 7.20 Value Area
Range: 3.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,170.00
1,168.50-1,167.50 Sell Pivot
1,167.40
Open 1,165.70
Close 1,164.20
1,163.80
Low 1,162.80
1,161.25-1,162.25 Buy Pivot
1,144.80 Pit Bull MA



Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, November 9, 2004:
1)S@1168.50/B@1165.25 +3.25.....

2)B@1163.00/S@1165.00 +2.00....

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning. Today is FOMC MEETING DAY and we do not offer Headline Calls on these days or trading recommendations. The announcements, normally issued around 2:15 est, can never be fully predicted.

A trader may have on a correct sided trade and get stopped out just on the whipsaw price action of the announcement. I've been on both sides of these announcements and seen large gains and also seeing stops run hard in fast market conditions. After all the years of trading I sincerely feel it is better to just stand aside, let the markets sort themselves out after the announcement, and then apply our system and methods the next day.

Here are my Wrap Up comments for Tuesday where we played both sides of the market.

"Today we were looking for the Bearish Market Force to continue but with more of a Neutral position also.

That is exactly what we got as the prices moved higher earlier giving us a good short opportunity at 1168.50. We covered that short for a scalp at 1165.25 for +3.25.

After pushing lower we wanted to get another scalp capitalizing on the (usually) Pre FOMC meeting day where the market will presss higher into the close.

We got long at 1163.00 and then convered on at 1165.00 for +2.00 pts. I suspected they would run higher but with the strong negative underlying Market Force indicators I didn't want to risk much. Later they pushed up to 1169 and then collapsed back towards 1164.00 into the close. So a decent day up +5.25."

Today's Call & Briefing:
No Headline Call today and therefore no recommended trade setups issued.

Overall if we see prices HOLDING BELOW 1166.00 this should be bearish for lower prices. Trade below 1157-59 is particularly bearish and should start a lower move that would come close to closing the spread between current prices and the Pit Bull (10 day SMA)

So look to stand aside today and we'll take a look at things on Thursday.

THURSDAY IS VETERANS DAY and the markets are expected to be slow although Open.

We will be there looking for trading opportunities and will make recommendations on the Morning Call here.

Value Area: 1,163.80 - 1,167.40
Watch for support and resistance with these VA numbers.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,161.25 - 1,162.25
Just below the VA this should be initial support as it has been now for last 3 sessions.

If prices work their way below 1159.00 could start bearish cascade lower.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,168.50 - 1,167.50
Just above this at 1170 has been good resistance so far. Let's see if they can keep it up.

We are in a Sell Mode still after an aberration that has brought prices up substantially. According to our work we have now re-entered the Sell Mode.

Question is if we will continue to find support and get an expected Back End loaded bullish year. I would like to believe this will occur as I had predicted this right at the time of the beginning of the Iraq War when no one believed me.

Now here we are having rallied substantially a year later but now not fully smokin em up higher into the end of the year.

I think this can still occur if the Sell Mode is once again stalled. My GUESS is that we could see a convergence upon the 1144 area, find support and then rally from there.

This is, however, not based on any specific aspect of our Market Force indicators just yet, but an educated guess into the next 1.5 months.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,144.80
Here is the Pit Bull now at my speculative price convergence for support.

If the interest rates are raised we could see a drop down to this level or just above where support could come in as we close out the year with a "Santa Claus Rally" type deal.

Pro Trader's Action
No Headline Call or Recommended Trade setups today.

Look to stand aside and observe what occurs in the market, FOMC announcement, and results of that.

All the best, Mohan