Mohan 08/11/04
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Mohan 08/11/04
Market Force: Bearish. Look for market to start showing weakness after attempting to rally early today.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Monday, November 8, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 11.20 Value Area
Range: 4.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,172.75-1,171.75 Sell Pivot
High 1,171.50
Close 1,167.70
1,167.00
Open 1,165.50
1,163.00
1,161.50-1,162.50 Buy Pivot
Low 1,160.30
1,132.40 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, November 5, 2004:
1)S@1165.25/B@1166.25 -1.00......
2)S@1171.25/B@1164.75 +6.50....
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.
On Friday we saw the 1171.00 number get hit that I had predicted mid last week and put in the Headline Call on Friday as a completion number. The question for today will it hold prices down?...I think so.
There was a decent bounce off the lows put in during the later morning session on Friday with an upper third range close. I think a lot of this may be left over bullishness.
Right now the downside looks like it will take over for a while. Here are my Wrap Up comments for the Live Update Service on Friday.
"We came in today looking to be on the short side after seeing a pre-market run up to the 1169.00 area and pullback.
After looking at the charts and overall set up we took at short at 1165.25/.50 with the idea that it would drop instantly or we were out. Prices ran up towards 1166.50 and then pulled back some where we got out showing fills near 1166.25/.50 for a -1.00 loss.
The market then ramped up towards 1169 again and put in the Hour One High at the highs of 1171.75. We got short at 1171.00/25 just 2 ticks off the highs. Prices started pulling back immediately and we monitored the trade down to a target we had determined of 1165.50 getting out at 1164.75 on a fast drop for a +6.50 profit.
Prices moved lower, bounced, moved lower again and tried to bust 1160.00 but couldn't quite do it. We had called for the market to bounce around for the rest of the day in the 1162-65 area and they have extended that range a bit but it is still expected to close in this zone.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today the Market Force is clearly bearish and we are expecting a sell off for today. Actually it appears that today will start a larger scale sell off that should take the indexes back to possibly 1142-44 over the next week or so.
Concentrating on today we will be looking for the morning session to attempt to rally and hold the prices up but continuously get hit with selling.
The thing we particularly want to watch for today is to see underlying weakness that clearly shows in contrast to how things have been trading very bullishly the last week.
IE: last week the drops got bought up right away and virtually no pullbacks to trade. Now, look for rallies that keep getting hit with selling, dip buyers getting hammered as the bottoms keep dropping out. This will be the sign of a larger scale move lower coming.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:
Because it's Monday we don't want to trade off the opening but wait for the first hour to complete. Unless we are showing Mega Bearish High 5 readings right off the opening we need to exercise patience and let the Bulls come in and try to rally the market at least through the first hour.
After this we can look to Sell moves up towards the Hour One highs but particularly keep an eye out for prices to JUST BARELY MISS HITTING THE HOUR ONE HIGH BEFORE SELLING OFF. This will be a definite sign of weakness.
If we run down and hit the Hour One low FIRST then we could be in for a drop BELOW the Hour One low. Want to watch the High 5 and particularly the TRIN and Nasdaq to see how they are reacting.
Look to focus on the short side today.
Value Area: 1,163.00 - 1,167.00
Trade holding below 1163.00 is bearish and should hold prices down.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,161.50 - 1,162.50
Holding below the Value Area bottom at 1163.00 and then STALLING at this Buy Pivot target area and NOT bouncing is another sign of weakenss.
The -4.25 stop/pivot is at 1157.25 and moving below that spells a trip down to 1154.50 area and we are on our way to 1142-44 in next few days.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,172.75 - 1,171.75
It would make sense to see another possible really up to this area to test just at or above the 1171.00 price again. The market often likes to do this at Highs just to let the later Bullish traders see that it is not going higher.
Usually the "Johnny come latelies" in a larger scale move think the move is going to keep going so they can propell the market to test previous days highs where the market sold off from. Especially on a Monday like today. They think the Sell off from those highs was a "fluke".
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,132.40
Over the next few trading sessions we could see the Spread between the current prices and the Pit Bull tighten up pretty quickly.
Could happen very quickly if our call for Bearish action today is going to pan out.
Pro Trader's Action
Look to stay on the sell side today especially if they open em up flat to higher and try to push em up again to test 1171.00 again.
Let the prices hang up for a bit and then after missing hitting the Hour One highs they could drop off pretty strongly today later in the session.
The alternative which has a STRONG possibility is that they let em have it right off the open and squash em lower. All of the Market Force readings are there to suggest this so we may not get a chance to see em hang up near the highs today.
We can still nail em short off the Hour One low. No problem.
Good Luck with your trades today and all the best of success. Mohan
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Monday, November 8, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 11.20 Value Area
Range: 4.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,172.75-1,171.75 Sell Pivot
High 1,171.50
Close 1,167.70
1,167.00
Open 1,165.50
1,163.00
1,161.50-1,162.50 Buy Pivot
Low 1,160.30
1,132.40 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, November 5, 2004:
1)S@1165.25/B@1166.25 -1.00......
2)S@1171.25/B@1164.75 +6.50....
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.
On Friday we saw the 1171.00 number get hit that I had predicted mid last week and put in the Headline Call on Friday as a completion number. The question for today will it hold prices down?...I think so.
There was a decent bounce off the lows put in during the later morning session on Friday with an upper third range close. I think a lot of this may be left over bullishness.
Right now the downside looks like it will take over for a while. Here are my Wrap Up comments for the Live Update Service on Friday.
"We came in today looking to be on the short side after seeing a pre-market run up to the 1169.00 area and pullback.
After looking at the charts and overall set up we took at short at 1165.25/.50 with the idea that it would drop instantly or we were out. Prices ran up towards 1166.50 and then pulled back some where we got out showing fills near 1166.25/.50 for a -1.00 loss.
The market then ramped up towards 1169 again and put in the Hour One High at the highs of 1171.75. We got short at 1171.00/25 just 2 ticks off the highs. Prices started pulling back immediately and we monitored the trade down to a target we had determined of 1165.50 getting out at 1164.75 on a fast drop for a +6.50 profit.
Prices moved lower, bounced, moved lower again and tried to bust 1160.00 but couldn't quite do it. We had called for the market to bounce around for the rest of the day in the 1162-65 area and they have extended that range a bit but it is still expected to close in this zone.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today the Market Force is clearly bearish and we are expecting a sell off for today. Actually it appears that today will start a larger scale sell off that should take the indexes back to possibly 1142-44 over the next week or so.
Concentrating on today we will be looking for the morning session to attempt to rally and hold the prices up but continuously get hit with selling.
The thing we particularly want to watch for today is to see underlying weakness that clearly shows in contrast to how things have been trading very bullishly the last week.
IE: last week the drops got bought up right away and virtually no pullbacks to trade. Now, look for rallies that keep getting hit with selling, dip buyers getting hammered as the bottoms keep dropping out. This will be the sign of a larger scale move lower coming.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:
Because it's Monday we don't want to trade off the opening but wait for the first hour to complete. Unless we are showing Mega Bearish High 5 readings right off the opening we need to exercise patience and let the Bulls come in and try to rally the market at least through the first hour.
After this we can look to Sell moves up towards the Hour One highs but particularly keep an eye out for prices to JUST BARELY MISS HITTING THE HOUR ONE HIGH BEFORE SELLING OFF. This will be a definite sign of weakness.
If we run down and hit the Hour One low FIRST then we could be in for a drop BELOW the Hour One low. Want to watch the High 5 and particularly the TRIN and Nasdaq to see how they are reacting.
Look to focus on the short side today.
Value Area: 1,163.00 - 1,167.00
Trade holding below 1163.00 is bearish and should hold prices down.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,161.50 - 1,162.50
Holding below the Value Area bottom at 1163.00 and then STALLING at this Buy Pivot target area and NOT bouncing is another sign of weakenss.
The -4.25 stop/pivot is at 1157.25 and moving below that spells a trip down to 1154.50 area and we are on our way to 1142-44 in next few days.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,172.75 - 1,171.75
It would make sense to see another possible really up to this area to test just at or above the 1171.00 price again. The market often likes to do this at Highs just to let the later Bullish traders see that it is not going higher.
Usually the "Johnny come latelies" in a larger scale move think the move is going to keep going so they can propell the market to test previous days highs where the market sold off from. Especially on a Monday like today. They think the Sell off from those highs was a "fluke".
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,132.40
Over the next few trading sessions we could see the Spread between the current prices and the Pit Bull tighten up pretty quickly.
Could happen very quickly if our call for Bearish action today is going to pan out.
Pro Trader's Action
Look to stay on the sell side today especially if they open em up flat to higher and try to push em up again to test 1171.00 again.
Let the prices hang up for a bit and then after missing hitting the Hour One highs they could drop off pretty strongly today later in the session.
The alternative which has a STRONG possibility is that they let em have it right off the open and squash em lower. All of the Market Force readings are there to suggest this so we may not get a chance to see em hang up near the highs today.
We can still nail em short off the Hour One low. No problem.
Good Luck with your trades today and all the best of success. Mohan
Alex
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- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
- Localização: Lisboa
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