Guy Villax culpa baixo preço dos genéricos por ruturas de "stock" nas farmácias

[Davos]

The bulls are counting on historical trends to save them. Since 1945 the Santa Claus rally has averaged a +10.6% gain in the Dow from the Nov/Dec lows to the highs in late December and early January. Since 1945 this string is unbroken. The smallest gain recent times was 0.86% in 1968-69 and the largest of +22.22% in 1974-75. The Nov/Dec low for this year was 8298 on Nov-13th. Using the average gain of +10.6% that would equate to a potential of 9177 on the Dow. Personally I think this is not possible in the current state of pre-war. Still only half of the average gain would put us back near 8750. While nobody can guarantee Santa will appear there is ample historical evidence to suggest traders will see some sort of bounce over the next couple of weeks. Since 1968 only five of the eventual highs occurred in December while 28 occurred in January. In our current bear market for the last three years the highs occurred on Jan 8th, 14th and 3rd.

In 1990 when the US was preparing for the gulf war the Dow sold off from its high of the year at 3010 to the October low of 2344. A it became evident that the US and the growing coalition was going to kick Iraq troops back to Baghdad the Dow rebounded over the December holidays to 2662 but fell sharply back to 2448 when the attack started. Within a week the Dow began to rebound and hit 3017 again by March. That +20% rebound began a new bull market that climaxed at 11,750 in Jan-2000. We know that economic conditions were almost the same this year as they were in 1990 and that our odds are significantly better in Iraq now than they appeared to be then. A casual observer would expect no further drops in the market due to war sentiment since the massing of troops tends to build patriotic spirit. Couple that with extreme oversold conditions and the Dow at strong support and I would say the potential for a Santa Claus rally is strong. That opinion and $4 will get you a coffee at Starbucks but that is the way I see it. I am still a buyer of the market below Dow 8450 with a stop at 8250. My sell target is 8750. That is where I think the economic issues will again take center stage.

Of note were the TRIN, which closed at 1.78 and the put/call ratio which closed at .96. Both are indicating a level of fear and oversold conditions which could produce a bounce at Friday's open. It is a quadruple witching Friday but most squaring of positions should already be complete. I expect some strong volume on the Nasdaq as the rebalancing becomes effective as of the close of business. Heavy selling in those 15 NDX stocks being removed should not significantly impact any chance of a Nasdaq bounce at the close because they are already nearing penny stock status.

Boa tarde,

Davos