The University of Michigan Sentiment Index is derived from a monthly telephone survey of about 500 consumers.
Michigan takes the percent of respondents that report better conditions, subtracts the percent that say conditions are worse, and adds 100. Preliminary results are released about two weeks after month-end, with final results available on the last Friday of the month.
The Michigan index of consumer sentiment combines responses to five questions about the survey participants' personal financial situation and their view of both current and future general business conditions. Two of the questions refer solely to the present -- forming the basis for the current economic conditions component of the survey. This category focuses directly on the risk of near-term financial distress and its implications for purchases of consumer durable goods. The other three questions are forward-looking and ask about expected conditions over the next one to five years. These three are then combined to form the index of consumer expectations.
As a rule of thumb, the expectations categories receive a 60% weighting in the calculation of the sentiment index, while current conditions comprise about 40%.
Notice the overall index of consumer sentiment is weighted toward the respondents' assessment of economic conditions 1-to-5 years in the future.
Já agora... em 1974-75, 1979-80 e em 1990-91 chegou a andar pelos 50% e em alguns meses mesmo abaixo dos 50%:
Vejam por exemplo neste gráfico:
http://www.salomonsmithbarney.com/inv_u ... /stan7.gif
Enviado: 15/11/2002 17:12