Sete momentos mais marcantes de Centeno no Banco de Portugal

[AntónioManuel]

Importante para todos nós sabermos que:

[AntónioManuel]

The Anatomy Of A Good Trade in 10 Steps
[b]Autor: Steve Burns

Your trade entry must be at a price level that gives you either a high probability profit potential or a great risk/reward ratio.
You must identify where price has to go to prove you are wrong and then set your stop at that level.
Your position size has to be based on how much you are willing to lose if your stop is hit. 1% to 2% is the maximum loss of total capital you should ever risk to avoid the risk of ruin.
If your trade becomes profitable you will have to have a plan for a trailing stop to lock in profits on a reversal or a price target to lock in profits when it is hit.
Your trade must be based on a detailed trading plan. You must operate inside a set of rules.
Your trade must must be made inside a profitable trading system to have any long term meaning.
Trades must be based on reacting to what is happening not predictions.
Trades must be based on quantifiable facts not emotions or ego.
Always trade based on your own time frame.
Never piggy back another persons trade. All of our trades are our own win or lose.[/b]

[AntónioManuel]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uW34HL0Nl1c

Olá MMarcus, obrigado por teres disponibilizado a entrevista, já comecei a ouvir: Acho muito interessante o que estás a fazer com os teus trades; engraçado que a determinada altura testei uma coisa semelhante ao que tu apresentas no teu tópico, mas acabei por evoluir por um caminho diferente.
Estive afastado do Caldeirão alguns dias porque estive sem Internet e sem tempo para acompanhar a bolsa e entretanto fui stopado na Mota

Abraço

[MMarcus]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uW34HL0Nl1c

[AntónioManuel]

The 15 Key Steps To Successful Trading
Autor- Steve Burns

-Commit to doing the work to become a successful trader.
-Study the top resources for trading success.
-Decide what level of annual returns you want to make on average.
-Decide the maximum capital draw down level you can tolerate and accept.
-Become a reactive trader not a predictive trader, learn how to trade price action.
-Focus on a system with a winning risk/reward ratio. Bigger winning trades than losing trades.
-Build and back test a trading methodology that is profitable over many different market environments and meets your requirements.
-Write a trading plan that quantifies entries, exits, positions sizing, and your rules.
-If you have the personalty to trade this system and plan with real money then proceed.
-Eliminate the risk of ruin by never losing more than 1% of trading capital on any one trade.
-Stick to your plan with discipline.
-Trade multiple systems to improve your chance of profitability.
-Never quit learning and improving on what you do.
-Only trade markets you are familiar with and have done the research on.
-Never quit, never give up.

[AntónioManuel]

Dando seguimento á sugestão do Estóico Ocioso, que gostei, aqui vai!
Tentei um trade longo na NOS mas devido a uma má colocação do stop fui stopado; a evolução da ação tem mostrado que seria um bom trade, ainda continua com algum interesse. No Gráfico abaixo apresenta um R/R de 2-1, com a hipótese de quebrar em alta a SMA50 no Semanal situada +- nos 5.00€.

[AntónioManuel]

Manuel,

Nada tens que agradecer, foi através de ti que cheguei ao tal Burns:
http://www.darvastrader.com/2010/12/14/ ... as-system/

O método já o conhecia:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/tr ... darvas.asp

Por vezes uso-o, de uma forma ainda mais simples (sem caixas):
Entro em cotadas com bons fundamentais, com boas perspectivas futuras e com uma bela subida de pelo menos um ano, quando corrigem um pouco e formam um aparente suporte. Se o suporte não aguenta, salto fora; se aguentar, deixo-me ir na tendência ascendente.
Apenas te perguntei se já tinhas experimentado o "Darvas Boxes" porque citas cá algumas vezes o Burns. Mas, como já tens um método que funciona contigo não precisas de outro.

O PSI, de momento, está muito dado a "estados de espírito", logo difícil de prever. Por isso, a minha questão sobre se conheces outros mercados menos "imprevisíveis".

O fórum serve para nos ajudar a fazer dinheiro, se não está a ajudar…
Não tens "obrigação" de indicar as tuas entradas e saídas, quanto ganhaste ou perdeste. A opção de o fazer, ou não, é apenas tua.
Podes utilizar o teu tópico, por exemplo, para colocar as tuas análises, citar traders que aprecies, até ensinar o teu método, se assim o entenderes. Não será por não indicares os teus resultados que deixará de haver interessados neste tópico…
Repito, a escolha é tua. E a não divulgação dos teus trades nunca poderá ser vista, por ti, como um fracasso. O que os outros pensam não faz "crescer" o dinheiro na tua conta…

Concordo com o que escreveste e as tuas sugestões que realcei são uma ideia interessante. O meu método como dizes, está definido, sei que o que preciso é apenas tempo para definir algumas coisas ter uma ideia mental clara delas por isso por escrito, e depois colocar em prática com rigor e disciplina, embora tenha definido um objectivo elevado, se não o alcançar ficarei satisfeito com o que conseguir.
Abraço

[O Estóico Ocioso]

.

[AntónioManuel]

António,

Gostaria de lhe colocar algumas questões:
- Com a exposição dos seus trades, aqui no Caldeirão, obteve melhores ou piores resultados?
- Já ponderou a aplicação o seu método de negociação a cotadas de um índice menos amedrontado/ganancioso (louco) que o PSI?
- Já experimento o método, utilizado por Burns em tempos, das "Darvas Boxes"?

Tenho acompanhado os seus post's desde que se registou cá, sempre apreciei a sua postura e as suas análises. Posso estar completamente enganado, mas a divulgação das suas entradas nos títulos está-lhe a criar uma pressão extra. Não acredito que tenha de melhorar as suas capacidades de análise para alcançar lucros em Outubro, elas já se revelaram bastante acertadas no passado e seguramente também o serão no futuro.

Gosto de seguir o seu tópico, tenho aprendido coisas novas consigo, espero que o continue.

Abraço

Olá Estóico Ocioso, primeiro quero agradecer o feedback que me estás a dar, sabe sempre bem ler isto sobre nós( sempre apreciei a sua postura e as suas análises) para mim é importante saber que estou a fazer algo com valor.
Fiquei impressionado com o facto de te teres apercebido que a divulgação das entradas me está a por alguma pressão, porque é verdade. No inicio estava perfeitamente á vontade, nestas ultimas semanas como não tenho andado muito bem, tem sido um pouco desconfortável, publicar os trades no Caldeirão, por isso estou a reflectir se continuo ou se paro algumas semanas.
Vou responder ás perguntas:
No inicio melhorou os resultados, agora piorou, mas no inicio o mercado estava mais favorável ao meu estilo
Nos ultimos cinco Anos a maior parte dos meus trades foi nas Bolsas holandesa, Belga e Francesa, só neste ano me virei para o PSI20 mas acredito que há cotadas com interesse
Esse metodo que falas do BURNS não estou a ver podes explicar melhor

[O Estóico Ocioso]

.

[AntónioManuel]

Outubro vai ser melhor

Abraço

Não estou desanimado com o Setembro, mas para o Outubro ser melhor eu tenho de melhorar.
Abraço

[nmprc]

Outubro vai ser melhor

Abraço

[AntónioManuel]

trades no mês de Setembro

02SET-MOTA: -3.00%
09SET-PT: +2.33%
09SET-BCP: +3.81%
12SET-MOTA: +0.75
15SET-MOTA: -2.74%
19SET-NOS: -2.00%
22SET-PT: -3.14%


RELAÇÃO ENTRE TRADES POSITIVOS E NEGATIVOS = -3.99%

[AntónioManuel]

Stopado na PT -3.14%

Verifiquei que tenho transgredido uma regra que tenho em relação á distancia na colocação do stoploss, vou ter que ter mais atenção e rigor neste aspecto.

[AntónioManuel]

Trading Psychology and the Risk of Ruin

A reader commented on the recent post on mood and trading that he was battling his own moods after losing 17% of his equity in three trading days. Admirably, he expressed the desire to keep it together for his family.

But, of course, this isn't a mood problem. It's a problem of risk management.

If you trade frequently, it's only a matter of time before you experience runs of three, four, and five losers. That can be losing trades, losing days, or losing weeks. The laws of statistics dictate that if even if you are right on your trades 60% of the time or profitable 60% of days or weeks, you'll have a run of four consecutive losers 2.56% of the time. Trade enough and it *will* happen.

Of course, if markets change and you hit a period where your win rate declines, the odds of those consecutive losing runs increase significantly. With 50-50 odds of winning, you'll get four consecutive losers about 6% of the time.

So why is that important?

You need to be able to weather those periods financially as well as psychologically. You can't be so leveraged that a normal run of losers will generate deep losses in your account.

Recently, the day's high/low range for the S&P 500 average (SPY) has expanded, with quite a few days above 2%. The 20-day average range is about 1.3%. There are only two ways to lose 17% in three days: trade very high volatility instruments or trade with very high leverage. Both can be deadly when you are dead wrong.

What is helpful for me is defining a drop dead level for the year. In other words, what is the maximum I'm willing to lose in a year before I close shop entirely? Let's say for argument sake that I'm willing to risk 15% in a year to make 30% or more. That means that, if I start to approach the 15% limit--perhaps at 5% increments--I will scale back my trading size/risk, realizing that I'm not trading well. If I'm proactive in such scaling back, I should never hit my drop dead level and never blow out my account.

Such an overall risk plan helps an active trader set daily loss limits. Knowing I could have losing streaks by simple random chance and knowing that 15% can knock me out of the game for the year, I'm not going to want to risk more than 1% of my capital in any given trading day. That, in turn, will guide position sizing for each trade.

When we trade so large that strings of losing trades or days can take us out of the game, that is called "risk of ruin". If you have an edge in the market, it's only a matter of time before you accumulate profits. Everything else is risk management and making sure you stay in the game.

Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.

[AntónioManuel]

Risk Management and Opportunity Maximization in Trading

A while back, I wrote on the topic of how to lose money the right way. If there is a holy grail to successful trading, it probably is risk management.

Risk management isn't just about keeping losses down; it also means taking maximum prudent advantage of opportunities that present themselves. It's taking more risk than reward in one's trades that ultimately can lead to failure.

Here's a quick test that I periodically conduct for my own trading:

Take the 10% of your biggest winning trades for the year and calculate how much you made. Then take the 10% of your biggest losing trades for the year and calculate how much you lost. If you lost more than you made at the tails of your distribution of returns, you know that risk management is a potential problem for you.

When the size of your average winning trade is smaller than the size of your average loser, you can only compensate by having many more winning trades than losing ones. That puts considerable performance pressure on traders, especially during slump periods and occasions when markets shift their direction and/or volatility.

What doesn't show up in risk management reviews are trades not taken. The flip side of big losing trades is the failure to execute trades that would have been large winners. That is why it is important, not only to identify when you would get out of markets (to limit exposure), but also to identify what would get you "all in".

Many traders fail because they cannot limit their risk. Many others fall short because they lack the courage of their convictions. Somewhere between confidence and overconfidence lies the sweet spot for successful traders.
Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.

[AntónioManuel]

Life After Trading: Finding Your Future

The recent post cited research that found that overtrading was most common among traders with the least funds, elderly traders, minority traders, and men. All of these are groups that could feel the most pressure to make a living from their trading. Every year I hear from a number of traders who reach the conclusion that this is not possible. They have put their heart and soul into trading--and sometimes their bank accounts--and they have determined that they simply cannot meet their financial needs and obligations through an uncertain trading income.

Here are a few vignettes of people I've worked with who have sought a life after trading:

* Joe was a very sociable person who wanted to be a success in life. He experienced success for a while in trading, but became unhappy with the lifestyle and his returns tailed off. He went into the restaurant business, where he could work with people, and currently owns and runs a successful restaurant group.

* Tom loved trading, but experienced ups and downs in his income. That created stress for him and his family. He knew a lot about markets and wanted to stay in the industry, so he built a career as a financial adviser and eventually became a knowledgeable and successful investor.

* Alicia was an excellent student, with a solid knowledge of economics. She became a junior portfolio manager at a hedge fund, but did not perform well under the pressure of having to produce short-term returns. She joined a different firm as a research analyst and is now part of a successful team, helping to set investment strategy.

In all of these cases, the people had to struggle with the issue of "failing" at trading. The important insight they came to is that they failed because of their strengths, not because of weakness. Each had key strengths that did not fit well with a trading career. They found their future by moving to an area of opportunity that made greater use of those strengths. None of the opportunities seemed perfect at the time, but they found good organizations to be part of and grew into ideal positions.

In my life, it took several failed relationships before I figured out what would make me happy in a marriage. Those were difficult experiences, but there would have been no success without those failures. A career, like a romantic relationship, must capture your strengths, interests, and values in order to be successful. If trading is not working for you, consider the possibility that trading does not capture all that you have to offer. Understanding who you are, what fills you with energy, and what you are truly good at is the first step in discovering your ideal future.

Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.

[AntónioManuel]

How Do I Avoid Overtrading?

A trader recently posed this question in a comment to a blog post: How can I avoid overtrading?

First, let's get definitions straight:

Overtrading typically has two connotations: trading size that is too large for one's portfolio (i.e., taking too much risk per trade) and trading too often (i.e., when an objective edge for the trade is not present).

Keeping metrics on your trading will tell you if your size is too large (you will have large P/L swings and drawdowns and large outlier gains and losses) and/or if you're trading too much (you will have more losing trades than winners and will tend to lose more on days in which you're trading more).

The antidote to overtrading--in both its forms--is rule-governance. Trading rules are what guide our position sizing and risk-taking, and they are what put us into markets and keep us out.

Many times, traders do not formulate their rules explicitly: they do not have clear and concrete formulas for position sizing, and they do not have hard-and-fast rules for when to enter and exit. It is a curious, but surprisingly common error to assume that discretionary trading means trading without rules. Discretion means that we employ real-time judgment in entering, exiting, and managing positions. Rules can guide that discretion, just as rules and plans may guide a quarterback who calls plays in a huddle and changes those calls at the line of scrimmage.

We avoid overtrading in position-sizing by limiting the losses on any single trade to a small, fixed fraction of portfolio value. We avoid overtrading in the number of positions we enter by limiting trades to those setups (entry criteria) that have demonstrated their profitability. For example, I will not take a short position in a market in which the cumulative NYSE TICK is making new highs; I won't trade at all if volume falls below threshold levels. These rules and guidelines keep us out of unprofitable situations, and they help us concentrate our capital in areas of greatest opportunity.

It is through repetition that rules turn into habits. This is a topic I'll be taking up in the new book. To avoid overtrading, you lay out your trading rules and then you rehearse and follow those rules so consistently that they become automatic. You can't expect to follow a discipline that you haven't clearly defined in the first place.
Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.

[AntónioManuel]

Maybe Overtrading Isn't a Discipline Problem

Research from Barber and Odean finds that men trade 45% more frequently compared to women and pay for their overtrading by achieving lower risk-adjusted returns. A common interpretation of this finding is that men are more risk-taking than women and more aggressive in their trading, perhaps due to the impact of testosterone.

Consider a different interpretation, however. Research from Anderson and Stranahan found that overtrading is most common among elderly traders, minority traders, and traders with less wealth. What's the common thread here? Perhaps traders overtrade because they feel a greater need to make a living from their trading. Elderly, minority, and poorer traders may not possess other sources of income and might pressure themselves to support themselves and families through trading. Men are traditionally viewed as breadwinners for families and may also feel a heightened need to make trading succeed financially.

It is ironic that those who feel the most pressure to make trading succeed are the most vulnerable to poor trading practices. It is much easier to sit out quiet or noisy markets when you don't have to rely on trading as a primary source of income. It is also easier to practice prudent risk management when you don't need to double your money or more from a small account.

We know from research that the great majority of traders are not able to sustain a living from trading. Perhaps their overtrading is not so much the result of a lack of discipline as a sign of desperation. Who addresses the needs of traders who can't trade for a living and need to find constructive alternatives? It's not an area that brokerage firms, education vendors, or coaches have much interest in highlighting. In my next post, I'll take a look at life after trading and what makes it successful.
Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.

[AntónioManuel]

Seven Key Numbers A Trader Needs To Know About Their System
Author: StephenBurns

Trading is a numbers game more than anything else. Here are seven crucial numbers and statistics that a serious trader needs to set expectations around and know. Some can be found through historical back testing, some can be controlled, others give the trader a target to aim at. Once a trader understands these numbers and does the work to understand how they fit into their trading system to closer they are to success. If you are a serious trader you will do the work to know the numbers as best as you can.

Winning percentage: What percentage of trades to you expect to be profitable? You can still be profitable with less than 50% winning trades if your winning trades are bigger than your losing trades.

Longest expected losing streak: What is the maximum amount of trades you expect to lose in a row during a losing streak? Most systems can have up to 10 losing trades in a row each year, can you survive that?

“R” multiple/risk per trade: This is the dollar amount you are risking to lose if you are wrong about a trade. Can you mentally and emotionally handle this number when you are wrong?

Percent of total trading capital at risk per trade: This is the percentage of your total trading account you are willing to risk per trade if you are wrong. Risking 1% to 2% of total capital per trade through the right position sizing and stop losses will prevent the trader from blowing up their account.

Risk/Reward Ratio: How much are you risking compared to how much you expect to make if you are right? A 1:3 risk/reward ratio is very good because you can be profitable even with less than a 50% winning percentage.

Expectation of maximum draw down: The maximum percent of capital you expect to be down off your equity peak at any given time. The lower the draw down the less stress with dealing with having to make it all back. It is harder to come back from a draw down because a 20% draw down takes a 25% gain to get back to even, and a 50% draw down takes a 100% return to get back to even, better to avoid draw downs in the first place.

Expected annual return: What annual return are you aiming at? The higher the targeted return the more risk that will have to be taken on and the possibility of a bigger draw down to get to those returns. Remember the best money managers in the world do good to average 20% a year long term and the best traders in history have had 50%-60% returns in the best years on average. A target is crucial to guide your trading to achieve it.

[AntónioManuel]

às vezes faz bem... Sigo o teu modelo de negociação e encontro muitas semelhanças com o meu, e o equilibrio emocional é fundamental para não cometer erros.

Quanto aos stops, e após ter lido e reflectido decidi neste momento investir sem stops. O Cem não usa stops, nesta tendência actual parece-me desnecessário, desde que não dês os tais tiros para o ar.

P.S. Tambem estou na PT, acredito que está a consolidar nesta casa dos 1,77 - 1,79 para voltar a subir, ontem e hoje dias negativos com pouco volume

Abraço[/quote]

Realmente concordo com que dizes e talvez esteja a colocar um stop demasiado apertado, pois acredito, que a tendência é para cima, tirei o stoploss e vou ver a abordagem á SMA50 no gráfico 1h

[nmprc]

Fui Stopado por um triz e subiu -2%

Bom dia,
Ao que te aconteceu os brasileiros chamam de "tomar um violino"...
Quanto à PT, eu não teria comprado até ver a reação aos 1,97€, até estar acima das médias moveis que uso no semanal e o resto já sabes como eu opero...
deixo o gráfico diário com o fecho de ontem com duas análises a otimista a azul (para teu bem...) e a vermelho a pessimista ( para a qual eu estou mais inclinado)
Bons negócios
JGut

Olá Jgut, nas ultimas semanas tenho vindo a atravessar um período menos bom na vida pessoal e perdi um bocado a motivação pelas analises, e até pela bolsa, o que me tem levado a disparar uns tiros sem nexo; estou a pensar reduzir um bocado o trading e os valores investidos, durante algum tempo, ou até fazer uma paragem temporária até recuperar as condições psicológicas necessárias para o trading.

às vezes faz bem... Sigo o teu modelo de negociação e encontro muitas semelhanças com o meu, e o equilibrio emocional é fundamental para não cometer erros.

Quanto aos stops, e após ter lido e reflectido decidi neste momento investir sem stops. O Cem não usa stops, nesta tendência actual parece-me desnecessário, desde que não dês os tais tiros para o ar.

P.S. Tambem estou na PT, acredito que está a consolidar nesta casa dos 1,77 - 1,79 para voltar a subir, ontem e hoje dias negativos com pouco volume

Abraço

[AntónioManuel]

Fui Stopado por um triz e subiu -2%

Bom dia,
Ao que te aconteceu os brasileiros chamam de "tomar um violino"...
Quanto à PT, eu não teria comprado até ver a reação aos 1,97€, até estar acima das médias moveis que uso no semanal e o resto já sabes como eu opero...
deixo o gráfico diário com o fecho de ontem com duas análises a otimista a azul (para teu bem...) e a vermelho a pessimista ( para a qual eu estou mais inclinado)
Bons negócios
JGut

Olá Jgut, nas ultimas semanas tenho vindo a atravessar um período menos bom na vida pessoal e perdi um bocado a motivação pelas analises, e até pela bolsa, o que me tem levado a disparar uns tiros sem nexo; estou a pensar reduzir um bocado o trading e os valores investidos, durante algum tempo, ou até fazer uma paragem temporária até recuperar as condições psicológicas necessárias para o trading.

[jgut]

Fui Stopado por um triz e subiu -2%

Bom dia,
Ao que te aconteceu os brasileiros chamam de "tomar um violino"...
Quanto à PT, eu não teria comprado até ver a reação aos 1,97€, até estar acima das médias moveis que uso no semanal e o resto já sabes como eu opero...
deixo o gráfico diário com o fecho de ontem com duas análises a otimista a azul (para teu bem...) e a vermelho a pessimista ( para a qual eu estou mais inclinado)
Bons negócios
JGut

[AntónioManuel]

Jogada de risco...Porque está mesmo na "resistência" e com o STOP mesmo colado.
Mas boa sorte!

É verdade veremos