S&P 500 "sistema ferrari"
s&p500 movimentos nunca inferiores a 9%/10%
1044- 845... -199 -19,06%
845- 1007... 162 19,17% BEAR MARKET
1007- 818... -189 -18,77% BEAR MARKET
818- 916... 98 11,98% BEAR MARKET
916- 741... -175... -19,10% BEAR MARKET
741- 896... 155... 20,92% BEAR MARKET
896- 815... -81... -9,04% BEAR MARKET
815- 943... 128... 15,71% BEAR MARKET
943- 804... -139... -14,74% BEAR MARKET
804- 877... 73.... 9,08% BEAR MARKET
877- 666... -211... -24,06% BEAR MARKET
666- 875... 209.... 31,38% BEAR MARKET
a confirmar-se a inversao de tendencia , ficam os 31,38% de subida... já alguém disse que as maiores subidas acontecem em BEAR MARKET...
1044- 845... -199 -19,06%
845- 1007... 162 19,17% BEAR MARKET
1007- 818... -189 -18,77% BEAR MARKET
818- 916... 98 11,98% BEAR MARKET
916- 741... -175... -19,10% BEAR MARKET
741- 896... 155... 20,92% BEAR MARKET
896- 815... -81... -9,04% BEAR MARKET
815- 943... 128... 15,71% BEAR MARKET
943- 804... -139... -14,74% BEAR MARKET
804- 877... 73.... 9,08% BEAR MARKET
877- 666... -211... -24,06% BEAR MARKET
666- 875... 209.... 31,38% BEAR MARKET
a confirmar-se a inversao de tendencia , ficam os 31,38% de subida... já alguém disse que as maiores subidas acontecem em BEAR MARKET...
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- Mensagens: 1003
- Registado: 29/11/2007 9:55
- Localização: Lisboa
poker-ajuda
Luís Partilho da mesma opinião. O suporte 800 poderá por uma mudança de sentimento se for quebrada
- Mensagens: 2796
- Registado: 20/2/2009 17:06
- Localização: 4
A confirmar-se no dia de amanha a inversao de tendencia, ainda por cima junto a uma resistencia muito forte, penso que o indice terá de ir buscar forças á zona dos 800 pontos.
penso que os touros terao neste nivel uma palavra a dizer...
se quebrar em baixa, volta a discussao dos minimos á baila...
penso que os touros terao neste nivel uma palavra a dizer...
se quebrar em baixa, volta a discussao dos minimos á baila...
- Anexos
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- 804,780,740.jpg (53.75 KiB) Visualizado 5382 vezes
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- Mensagens: 1003
- Registado: 29/11/2007 9:55
- Localização: Lisboa
bestblandina Escreveu:é logico que não é num dia como parece mostrar a 2 seta. Acredito nesta correcção e depois novamente um movimento para cima. Em termos de target não digo nada mas em relação aos movimentos acredito. No entanto é bem possivel os target apontados para o 1 e 2 movimento.
Target para esta correcção-829
abaixo dos 795 poderá por em risco o sentimento de subida
eh q a 2a seta nem mostra num dia... volta atrás no tempo lol
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- Mensagens: 4483
- Registado: 12/3/2008 22:06
é logico que não é num dia como parece mostrar a 2 seta. Acredito nesta correcção e depois novamente um movimento para cima. Em termos de target não digo nada mas em relação aos movimentos acredito. No entanto é bem possivel os target apontados para o 1 e 2 movimento.
Target para esta correcção-829
abaixo dos 795 poderá por em risco o sentimento de subida
Target para esta correcção-829
abaixo dos 795 poderá por em risco o sentimento de subida
- Mensagens: 2796
- Registado: 20/2/2009 17:06
- Localização: 4
bestblandina Escreveu:mas luis a primeira correcção traçada é bem possivel e a segundo movimento tambem.È logico que tudo aquilo era pura sorte, mas acredito nos dois movimentos
o 2 movimento nao e' possivel a nao ser q sejas o Michael J Fox e tenhas um DeLorean com plutonio e que as 75 mph te faça viajar no tempo
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- Mensagens: 4483
- Registado: 12/3/2008 22:06
Warrant Escreveu:Podia ter um dos ferros mais bem espetados da história mas parece que me querem fazer estragar a festaUma coisa é certa. Este trade ainda vai ser ganhador pois não vou stopa-lo
Pode é não ser hoje
Abraço
ferros esptei-os eu muita bem na 6a... tava mesmo com o power todo...
fosse assim todos os dias... acertei em quase todos os topos e fundos lol
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- Mensagens: 4483
- Registado: 12/3/2008 22:06
Spx
Como seria de esperar os resultados das empresas (melhores que o esperado) ajudaram o ritmo da subida. Próximos dos 900 pontos teremos então a prova de fogo. A superação desse nível sig nificará que o alvo estará próximo dos 1000 pontos. Os resultados dos bancos europeus deverão ajudar o Dax que também poderá ter nos 5000 a grande barreira. A cimeira a 24 de Abril ´poderá constituir um novo tónico para os touros, ou talvez aproveitem as boas notícias para uma distribuição. Vamos acompanhando. Para os lados da chinas a coisa não está tão mal como se pintava o que poderá significar que segunda de manhãhaja festa no dax. Se o foguetório começar por ser expressivo, talvez seja boa ideia uma farpa no bicho. Cautelosa, como convém quando o animal está cheio de força.
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TECHNICALS
Most likely we have not seen the bottom in this bear market. We have come to this conclusion even though a quick glance at the daily June S&P 500 futures chart shows a prominent “V” shaped bottom.
JUNE S&P 500 FUTURES - DAILY
However, a look at the weekly chart does not provide the same level of confidence that some are seeing in the daily chart. The February 2009 high at 873.00 has not been taken out and the major downtrend line on the chart has not been violated either.
S&P 500 FUTURES - WEEKLY
The monthly chart appears even less impressive with the month and a half rally not resulting in any type of traditional technical sign of a major bottom. The bulls, while being encouraged by recent price gains, are likely to be dismayed later when there will probably be only limited follow through to the upside. None of these charts are showing any of the classic formations that are often associated with major bottoms. Among the more reliable bottoming patterns that we are looking for are the island bottom, the blow off to the downside, in conjunction with a new chart sell signal, an exhaustion gap into a new low, or even a clear cut one day, one week, or a one month single period reversal pattern. From a technical point of view it continues to appear as though the main trend, the downtrend, is still intact.
S&P 500 FUTURES – MONTHLY
FUNDAMENTALS
Over the past six weeks stock index futures have shown a tendency to positively react to some evidence that the economy may stabilize soon. It appears that the simulative efforts undertaken by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have caused the downturn in the economy to possibly be of a shorter duration than it would have been without governmental assistance. For example, the New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, which is also called the Empire Manufacturing Index, came in at a surprisingly “good” number of -14.65, when the median guess called for -35. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index improved to -24.4, which compares to a median estimate of -32.
There also appears to be some encouragement from the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. The Beige Book is a summary of the current economic conditions in the twelve Districts, which is published eight times per year. In their latest report, released on April 15th, they said the rate of decline in the economy is slowing and possibly could even be bottoming. The report said some industries are “stabilizing at a low level.” Some of the Districts reported that they “noted a moderation in the pace of decline.” The Fed’s report also said that there was a “slight improvement” in some regions, including a “scattered pickup” in the housing sector.
In addition, there has been encouraging news from the financial industry with better than anticipated earnings being reported by Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs. Citigroup said they are having their best quarter since 2007. JP Morgan Chase said the bank was profitable in the first two months of this year and Bank of America said that they were also profitable in the first two months of 2009.
So not all of the news is pessimistic, but a good portion of it still is. Even though there does appear to be a growing belief that the bottom of the recession is nearing, we continue to see evidence it may take a little more time before a low point in the economy actually takes place. In spite of the recent earnings reports from some banks that have been better than expected, the fear remains that there will be more problems related to the precarious housing situation within the next one to two years. Underscoring this concern is the most recent housing data. March housing starts were 510,000, which is the second lowest amount since records were first kept in 1959. The median guess was 540,000. Permits were also disappointing at 513,000, which compares to the average estimate of 549,000. Our studies suggest that the housing market will not bottom before the third quarter of this year, at the earliest.
Consumers continue to have a difficult time getting credit lines and loans and it appears unlikely that this condition will be remedied anytime soon. There is the additional fear that consumer spending could deteriorate even more as evidenced by the increasing rate of credit card defaults. Since many consumers are using their credit cards as a “lender of last resort” source of funding, it is feared that major credit card companies will announce increases in defaults and delinquencies. This fear is currently being addressed by banks and credit card companies through their efforts to limit lines of credit and cancel credit outright.
In addition, we are hearing reports that analysts are revising down their corporate earnings estimates for the second and third quarters of 2009 and there are an increasing number of analysts that are predicting that the U.S. economy will continue to shrink through most of or all of 2009. Our research tells us that corporate earnings will remain weaker than analysts’ estimates at least through the third quarter of this year.
THIRD QUARTER BOTTOM FOR STOCK INDEX FUTURES?
There have been a myriad of domestic and overseas stimulus plans that have been announced over the past eighteen months that, so far, have produced mixed results at best. Which stimulus plan will be the one that finally turns the economy and stock index futures around? Our experience has shown that the stimulus plan or government intervention that finally reverses a market trend is the one that takes place when the market is ready to turn around on its own. Our analysis suggests that whatever stimulus package or intervention that we have in the third quarter will be the one that finally “works.” All of our research tells us that a major bottom for stock index futures has not been made, but is likely to take place in the third quarter of 2009.
If you would like more information about this article, please send an email to Alan at alan.bush@archerfinancials.com or call 1.800.243.2649.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
Most likely we have not seen the bottom in this bear market. We have come to this conclusion even though a quick glance at the daily June S&P 500 futures chart shows a prominent “V” shaped bottom.
JUNE S&P 500 FUTURES - DAILY
However, a look at the weekly chart does not provide the same level of confidence that some are seeing in the daily chart. The February 2009 high at 873.00 has not been taken out and the major downtrend line on the chart has not been violated either.
S&P 500 FUTURES - WEEKLY
The monthly chart appears even less impressive with the month and a half rally not resulting in any type of traditional technical sign of a major bottom. The bulls, while being encouraged by recent price gains, are likely to be dismayed later when there will probably be only limited follow through to the upside. None of these charts are showing any of the classic formations that are often associated with major bottoms. Among the more reliable bottoming patterns that we are looking for are the island bottom, the blow off to the downside, in conjunction with a new chart sell signal, an exhaustion gap into a new low, or even a clear cut one day, one week, or a one month single period reversal pattern. From a technical point of view it continues to appear as though the main trend, the downtrend, is still intact.
S&P 500 FUTURES – MONTHLY
FUNDAMENTALS
Over the past six weeks stock index futures have shown a tendency to positively react to some evidence that the economy may stabilize soon. It appears that the simulative efforts undertaken by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have caused the downturn in the economy to possibly be of a shorter duration than it would have been without governmental assistance. For example, the New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, which is also called the Empire Manufacturing Index, came in at a surprisingly “good” number of -14.65, when the median guess called for -35. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index improved to -24.4, which compares to a median estimate of -32.
There also appears to be some encouragement from the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book. The Beige Book is a summary of the current economic conditions in the twelve Districts, which is published eight times per year. In their latest report, released on April 15th, they said the rate of decline in the economy is slowing and possibly could even be bottoming. The report said some industries are “stabilizing at a low level.” Some of the Districts reported that they “noted a moderation in the pace of decline.” The Fed’s report also said that there was a “slight improvement” in some regions, including a “scattered pickup” in the housing sector.
In addition, there has been encouraging news from the financial industry with better than anticipated earnings being reported by Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs. Citigroup said they are having their best quarter since 2007. JP Morgan Chase said the bank was profitable in the first two months of this year and Bank of America said that they were also profitable in the first two months of 2009.
So not all of the news is pessimistic, but a good portion of it still is. Even though there does appear to be a growing belief that the bottom of the recession is nearing, we continue to see evidence it may take a little more time before a low point in the economy actually takes place. In spite of the recent earnings reports from some banks that have been better than expected, the fear remains that there will be more problems related to the precarious housing situation within the next one to two years. Underscoring this concern is the most recent housing data. March housing starts were 510,000, which is the second lowest amount since records were first kept in 1959. The median guess was 540,000. Permits were also disappointing at 513,000, which compares to the average estimate of 549,000. Our studies suggest that the housing market will not bottom before the third quarter of this year, at the earliest.
Consumers continue to have a difficult time getting credit lines and loans and it appears unlikely that this condition will be remedied anytime soon. There is the additional fear that consumer spending could deteriorate even more as evidenced by the increasing rate of credit card defaults. Since many consumers are using their credit cards as a “lender of last resort” source of funding, it is feared that major credit card companies will announce increases in defaults and delinquencies. This fear is currently being addressed by banks and credit card companies through their efforts to limit lines of credit and cancel credit outright.
In addition, we are hearing reports that analysts are revising down their corporate earnings estimates for the second and third quarters of 2009 and there are an increasing number of analysts that are predicting that the U.S. economy will continue to shrink through most of or all of 2009. Our research tells us that corporate earnings will remain weaker than analysts’ estimates at least through the third quarter of this year.
THIRD QUARTER BOTTOM FOR STOCK INDEX FUTURES?
There have been a myriad of domestic and overseas stimulus plans that have been announced over the past eighteen months that, so far, have produced mixed results at best. Which stimulus plan will be the one that finally turns the economy and stock index futures around? Our experience has shown that the stimulus plan or government intervention that finally reverses a market trend is the one that takes place when the market is ready to turn around on its own. Our analysis suggests that whatever stimulus package or intervention that we have in the third quarter will be the one that finally “works.” All of our research tells us that a major bottom for stock index futures has not been made, but is likely to take place in the third quarter of 2009.
If you would like more information about this article, please send an email to Alan at alan.bush@archerfinancials.com or call 1.800.243.2649.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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- Mensagens: 1003
- Registado: 29/11/2007 9:55
- Localização: Lisboa
Até agora só me resta estar espantado com todo este movimento ascendente e ainda muito mais espantado com as expectativas que vão estando à sua volta.
Nada do que se passou hoje invalida a continuação da subida.
Penso que já há muito pouca gente "bearish".Está quase tudo demasiado confiante no curto prazo.
Já estamos na 6ª semana consecutiva de subidas.
Quase todos pensam que o céu é o limite.Por isso acredito cada vez mais de que uma inversão desta tendência de curto prazo está muito, muito próximo.
Podemos estar na fase da "Descida que ninguém acredita".
Um abraço.
Nada do que se passou hoje invalida a continuação da subida.
Penso que já há muito pouca gente "bearish".Está quase tudo demasiado confiante no curto prazo.
Já estamos na 6ª semana consecutiva de subidas.
Quase todos pensam que o céu é o limite.Por isso acredito cada vez mais de que uma inversão desta tendência de curto prazo está muito, muito próximo.
Podemos estar na fase da "Descida que ninguém acredita".
Um abraço.
- Anexos
-
- spx 17-04.gif (20.25 KiB) Visualizado 4376 vezes
Nunca te é dado um desejo sem também te ser dado o poder de o realizares.Contudo,poderás ter de lutar por isso. Richard Bach "in" Ilusões.
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- Registado: 14/3/2008 22:39
- Localização: Terra Media
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