Católica diz que PIB cresceu 0,7% no segundo trimestre e compensou contração

[arnie]

O que é "verdade" hoje, amanha já não o é.

Quanto mais curto for o time frame negociado, mais se torna evidente essa "verdade".
No intraday isso então é flagrante. Se à 30 minutos atrás o mercado estava a fazer novos máximos e dar indicações (devido ao padrão do trend) que poderia acelerar ainda mais, nos 30 minutos seguintes cai a pique e vem testar os mínimos da sessão.
What happened?

Há que dizer que a nivel intraday torna-se muito mais facil saber o que o mercado vai fazer nos minutos seguintes devido a certos movimentos de exaustão que nos dão basicamente 90% de certeza que tal movimento vai inverter. O problema são os restantes 10% que, não se reportam ao falhanço dessa inversão mas sim à amplitude da mesma que pode ser insuficiente para cobrir a comissão paga aquando de movimentos rápidos.


Dito isto, se pensarmos que os mercados são somente uma amalgama de sentimentos gerados pelos seus intervenientes, torna-se obvio que é impossivel sabermos onde o mercado vai estar amanha, daqui a 1 semana, 1 mês ou mesmo 1 ano.

No entanto, há periodos nos quais podemos acertar quase ao ponto onde um topo ou fundo vai ficar pois estamos em perfeita sintonia com o sentimento de mercado, com o sentimento da maioria dos intervenientes.

Como é obvio, essa sintonia por norma acaba sem nos darmos conta. Mantemos o nosso anterior outlook devido a este ter sido correcto no movimento anterior até que algo ocorre que vai totalmente contra o esperado.

Naturalmente que apenas nos resta uma coisa, aceitar que estávamos errados, aceitar que perdemos a "tal" sintonia, e tentar a partir desse ponto encontrar nova a zona de equilíbrio, nova sintonia.

[Ulisses Pereira]

Continuo a achar que os "Market Wizards" são fantásticos livros não apenas pela enorme qualidade dos entrevistados (são só os melhores do mundo) mas sobretudo pela enorme qualidade do entrevistador que coloca as perguntas da persepctiva de um "trader" já muito conhecedor do mercado.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Pata-Hari]

Esta última é fabulosa e já aqui foi discutida muitas vezes. Quem tem que opinar face a clientes ou quem opina publicamente num fórum, acaba por ter que ter a capacidade de também aceitar que não adivinha. Esse exercicio de modestia é tão importante...

[LTCM]

24. DON'T WORRY ABOUT LOOKING STUPID

Last week you told everyone at the office, "My analysis has just given me a great buy signal in the S&P. The market is going to a new high." Now as you examine the market action since then, something appears to be wrong. Instead of rallying, the market is breaking down. Your gut tells you that the market is vulnerable.

Whether you realize it or not, your announced prognostications are going to color your objectivity. Why? Because you don't want to look stupid after telling the world that the market was going to a new high. Consequently, you are likely to view the market's action in the most favorable light possible. "The market isn't breaking down, it's just a pullback to knock out the weak longs." As a result of this type of rationalization, you end up holding a losing position far too long. There is an easy solution to this problem:
Don't talk about your position.

What if your job requires talking about your market opinions (as mine does)? Here the rule is: Whenever you start worrying about contradicting your previous opinion, view that concern as reinforcement to reverse your market stance. As a personal example, m early 1991 I came to the conclusion that the dollar had formed a major bottom. I specifically remember one talk in which an audience member asked me about my outlook for currencies. I responded by boldly predicting that the dollar would head higher for years.

Several months later, when the dollar surrendered the entire gain it had realized following the news of the August 1991 Soviet coup before the coup's failure was confirmed, I sensed that something was wrong. I recalled my many predictions over the preceding months in which I had stated that the dollar would go up for years. The discomfort and embarrassment I felt about these previous forecasts told me it was time to change my opinion.

In my earlier years in the business, I invariably tried to rationalize my original market opinion in such situations. I was burned enough times that I eventually learned a lesson. In the above example, the abandonment of my original projection was fortunate, because the dollar collapsed in the ensuing months.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS by Jack D. Schwager

[LTCM]

and market volatility*.

*Acrescenta o C.Faith no "The Way of the turtles"

Gosto, mas não está no Top 100

22. SCALING IN AND OUT OF TRADES
You don't have to get in or out of a position all at once. Scaling in and out of positions provides the flexibility of fine-tuning trades and broadens the set of alternative choices. Most traders sacrifice this flexibility without a second thought because of the innate human desire to be completely right.

(By definition, a scaling approach means that some portions of a trade will be entered or exited at worse prices than other portions.) As one example of the potential benefits of scaling, Lip-schutz noted that it has enabled him to stay with long-term winners much longer than he has seen most traders stay with their positions.

23. BEING RIGHT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN BEING A GENIUS
I think one reason why so many people try to pick tops and bottoms is that they want to prove to the world how smart they are. Think about winning rather than being a hero.
Forget trying to judge trading success by how close you can come to picking major tops and bottoms, but rather by how well you can pick individual trades with merit based on favorable risk/return situations and a good percentage of winners. Go for consistency on a trade-to-trade basis, not perfect trades.

[canguru]

21. THE IMPORTANCE OF VARYING BET SIZE
All traders who win consistently over the long mn have an edge. However, that edge may vary significantly from trade to trade. It can be mathematically demonstrated that in any wager game with varying probabilities, winnings are maximized by adjusting the bet size in accordance with the perceived chance for a successful outcome and market volatility*.

*Acrescenta o C.Faith no "The Way of the turtles"

[LTCM]

21. THE IMPORTANCE OF VARYING BET SIZE
All traders who win consistently over the long mn have an edge. However, that edge may vary significantly from trade to trade. It can be mathematically demonstrated that in any wager game with varying probabilities, winnings are maximized by adjusting the bet size in accordance with the perceived chance for a successful outcome. Optimal blackjack betting strategy provides a perfect illustration of this concept (see Hull chapter).

If the trader has some idea as to which trades have a greater edge- say, for example, based on a higher confidence level (assuming that is a reliable indicator)-then it makes sense to be more aggressive in these situations. As Druckenmiller expresses it, "The way to build [superior] long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs.... When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig." For a number of Market Wizards, keen judgment as to when to really step on the accelerator and the courage to do so have been instrumental to their achieving exceptional (as opposed to merely good) returns.

Some of the traders interviewed mentioned that they varied their trading size in accordance with how they were doing. For example, McKay indicated that it was not uncommon for him to vary his position size by as much as a factor of one hundred to one. He finds this approach helps him reduce risk during losing periods while enhancing profits during the winning periods.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS by Jack D. Schwager

[LTCM]

19. THE IMPORTANCE OF SITTING
Patience is important not only in waiting for the right trades, but also in staying with trades that are working. The failure to adequately profit from correct trades is a key profit-limiting factor. Quoting again from Lefevre in Reminiscences, "It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting.
Got that? My sitting tight!" Also, recall Eckhardt's comment on the subject: "One common adage ... that is completely wrongheaded is: You can't go broke taking profits. That's precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits."

20. DEVELOPING A LOW-RISK IDEA
One of the exercises Dr. Van Tharp uses in his seminars is having the participants take the time to write down their ideas on low-risk trades. The merit of a low-risk idea is that it combines two essential elements: patience (because only a small portion of ideas will qualify) and risk control (inherent in the definition). Taking the time to think through low-risk strategies is a useful exercise for all traders. The specific ideas will vary greatly from trader to trader, depending on the markets traded and methodologies used. At the seminar I attended, the participants came up with a long list of descriptions of low-risk ideas. As one example: a trade in which the market movement required to provide convincing proof that you are wrong is small. Although it had nothing to do with trading, my personal favorite of the low-risk ideas mentioned was: "Open a doughnut shop next door to a police station."

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS by Jack D. Schwager

[LTCM]

17. THE URGE TO SEEK ADVICE
The urge to seek advice betrays a lack of confidence. As Linda Raschke said, "If you ever find yourself tempted to seek out someone else's opinion on a trade, that's usually a sure sign that you should get out of your position."

18. THE VIRTUE OF PATIENCE
Waiting for the right opportunity increases the probability of success. You don't always have to be in the market. As Edwin Lefevre put it in his classic Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, "There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time."

One of the more colorful descriptions of patience in trading was offered by Jim Rogers in Market Wizards:
"I just wait until there is money lying in the comer, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up." In other words, until he is so sure of a trade that it seems as easy as picking money off the floor, he does nothing.
Mark Weinstein (also interviewed in Market Wizards) provided the following apt analogy: "Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for Just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antelope, and not Just any baby antelope, but preferably one that is also sick or lame.
Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey, does it attack. That, to me, is the epitome of professional trading."

As a final bit of advice on the subject of patience, guard particularly against being overeager to trade in order to win back prior losses. Vengeance trading is a sure recipe for failure.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS by Jack D. Schwager

[Automech]

5. DERIVE A METHOD
To have an edge, you must have a method. The type of method is irrelevant. Some of the supertraders are pure fundamentalists; some are pure technicians; and some are hybrids. Even within each group, there are tremendous variations. For example, within the group of technicians, there are tape readers (or their modem-day equivalent-screen watchers), chartists, mechanical system traders, EIliott Wave analysts, Gann analysts, and so on. The type of method is not important, but having one is critical-and, of course, the method must have an edge.

Para mim este é o ponto mais dificil de avaliar pela sua subjectividade e é preciso muito tempo até alguém ter a certeza (ou digamos suspeitar) que tem mesmo um edge.

[LTCM]

14. CONFIDENCE
An unwavering confidence in their ability to continue to win in the markets was a nearly universal characteristic among the traders I interviewed. Dr. Van Tharp, a psychologist who has done a great deal of research on traders and was interviewed in Market Wizards, claims that one of the basic traits of winning traders is that they believe "they've won the game before the start."

15. LOSING IS PART OF THE GAME
The great traders fully realize that losing is an intrinsic element in the game of trading. This attitude seems linked to confidence. Because exceptional traders are confident that they will win over the long run, individual losing trades no longer seem horrible; they simply appear inevitable-which is what they are. As Linda Raschke explained, "It never bothered me to lose, because I always knew that I would make it right back."
There is no more certain recipe for losing than having a fear of losing. If you can't stand taking losses, you will either end up taking large losses or missing great trading opportunities-either flaw is sufficient to sink any chance for success.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS by Jack D. Schwager

[canguru]

6. DEVELOPING A METHOD IS HARD WORK

(...) Remember that you are playing against tens of thousands of professionals.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS - JACK D. SCHWAGER

[LTCM]

13. THE NEED FOR INDEPENDENCE

You need to do your own thinking. Don't get caught up in mass hysteria. As Ed Seykota pointed out, by the time a story is making the cover of the national periodicals, the trend is probably near an end. Independence also means making your own trading decisions. Never listen to other opinions. Even if it occasionally helps on a trade or two, listening to others invariably seems to end up costing you money-not to mention confusing your own market view. As Michael Marcus stated in Market Wizards, "You need to follow your own light. If you combine two traders, you will get the worst of each."

A related personal anecdote concerns another trader I interviewed in Market Wizards. Although he could trade better than I if he were blindfolded and placed in a trunk at the bottom of a pool, he still was interested in my view of the markets. One day he called and asked, "What do you think of the yen?" The yen was one of the few markets about which I had a strong opinion at the time. It had formed a particular chart pattern that made me very bearish. "I think the yen is going straight down, and I'm short," I replied.

He preceded to give me fifty-one reasons why the yen was oversold and due for a rally. After he hung up, I thought: "I'm leaving on a business trip tomorrow. My trading has not been going very well during the last few weeks. The short yen trade is one of the only positions in my account. Do I really want to fade one of the world's best traders given these considerations?" I decided to close out the trade.
By the time I returned from my trip several days later, the yen had fallen 150 points. As luck would have it, that afternoon the same trader called. When the conversation rolled around to the yen, I couldn't resist asking, "By the way, are you still long the yen?" "Oh no," he replied, "I'm short."

The point is not that this trader was trying to mislead me. On the contrary, he firmly believed each market opinion at the time he expressed it. However, his timing was good enough so that he probably made Money on both sides of the trade. In contrast, I ended up with nothing, even though I had the original move pegged exactly right. The moral is that even advice from a much better trader can lead to detrimental results.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS - JACK D. SCHWAGER

[Pata-Hari]

Amén à 12....

[LTCM]

11. DISCIPLINE
Discipline was probably the most frequent word used by the exceptional traders that I interviewed. Often, it was mentioned in an almost apologetic tone: "I know you've heard this a million times before, but believe me, it's really important."There are two basic reasons why discipline is critical. First, it is a prerequisite for maintaining effective risk control. Second, you need discipline to apply your method without second-guessing and choosing which trades to take. I guarantee that you will almost always pick the wrong ones. Why? Because you will tend to pick the comfortable trades, and as Eckhardt explained, "What feels good is often the wrong thing to do."As a final word on this subject, remember that you are never immune to bad trading habits-the best you can do is to keep them latent. As soon as you get lazy or sloppy, they will return.

12. UNDERSTAND THAT YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE
Whether you win or lose, you are responsible for your own results. Even if you lost on your broker's tip, na advisory service recommendation, or a bad signal from the system you bought, you are responsible because you made the decision to listen and act. I have never met a successful trader who blamed others for His losses.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS by Jack D. Schwager

[LTCM]

9. MONEY MANAGEMENT AND RISK CONTROL

Almost every person I interviewed felt that money management was even more important than the trading method. Many potentially successful systems or trading approaches have led to disaster because the trader applying the strategy lacked a method of controlling risk. You don't have to be a mathematician or understand portfolio theory to manage risk. Risk control can be as easy as the following three-step approach:

1. Never risk more than 1 to 2 percent of your capital on any trade. (Depending on your approach, a modestly higher number might still be reasonable. However, I would strongly advise against anything over 5 percent.)

2. Predetermine your exit point before you get into a trade. Many of the traders I interviewed cited exactly this rule.

3. If you lose a certain predetermined amount of your starting capital (e.g., 10 percent to 20 percent), take a breather, analyze what went wrong, and wait until you feel confident and have a high-probability idea before you begin trading again. For traders with large accounts, trading very small is a reasonable alternative to a complete trading hiatus. The strategy of cutting trading size down sharply during losing streaks is one mentioned by many of the traders interviewed.

10. THE TRADING PLAN

Trying to win in the markets without a trading plan is like trying to build a house without blueprints-costly (and avoidable) mistakes are virtually inevitable. A trading plan simply requires combining a personal trading method with specific money management and trade entry rules. Krausz considers the absence of a trading plan the root of all the principal difficulties traders encounter in the markets. Driehaus stresses that a trading plan should reflect a personal core philosophy. He explains that without a core philosophy, you are not going to be able to hold on to your positions or stick with your trading plan during really difficult times.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS by Jack D. Schwager

[LTCM]

7. SKILL VERSUS HARD WORK
Is trading success dependent on innate skills? Or is hard work sufficient? There is no question in my mmd that many of the supertraders have a special talent for trading. Marathon running provides an appropriate analogy. Virtually anyone can run a marathon, given sufficient commitment and hard work. Yet, regardless of the effort and desire, only a small fraction of the population will ever be able to run a 2:12 marathon.
Similarly, anyone can learn to play a musical instrument. But again, regardless of work and dedication, only a handful of individuals possess the natural talent to become concert soloists. The general rule is that exceptional performance requires both natural talent and hard work to realize its potential. If the innate skill is lacking, hard work may provide proficiency, but not excellence.
In my opinion, the same principles apply to trading. Virtually anyone can become a net profitable trader, but only a few have the inborn talent to become supertraders. For this reason, it may be possible to teach trading success, but only up to a point. Be realistic in your goals.

8. GOOD TRADING SHOULD BE EFFORTLESS
Wait a minute. Didn't I just list hard work as an ingredient to successful trading? How can good trading require hard work and yet be effortless?
There is no contradiction. Hard work refers to the preparatory process-the research and observation necessary to become a good trader-not to the trading itself. In this respect, hard work is associated with such qualities as vision, creativity, persistence, drive, desire, and commitment. Hard work certainly does not mean that the process of trading itself should be filled with exertion. It certainly does not imply struggling with or fighting against the markets. On the contrary, the more effortless and natural the trading process, the better the chances for success. As the anonymous trader in Zen and the Art of Trading put it, "In trading, just as in archery, whenever there is effort, force, straining, struggling, or trying, it's wrong. You're out of sync; you're out of harmony with the market. The perfect trade is one that requires no effort."
Visualize a world-class distance runner, clicking off mile after mile at a five-minute pace. Now picture na out-of-shape, 250-pound couch potato trying to run a mile at a ten-minute pace. The professional runner glides along gracefully-almost effortlessly-despite the long distance and fast pace. The out-of-shape runner, however, is likely to struggle, huffing and puffing like a Yugo going up a 1 percent grade. Who is putting in more work and effort? Who is more successful? Of course, the world-class runner puts in his hard work during training, and this prior effort and commitment are essential to His.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS by Jack D. Schwager.

[canguru]

Podes esplanar a parte 4 mais um pouco? obrigado

tens de ter um "edge"
as odds tem de estar do teu lado. como o dono do casino. lembra-te da roleta: tens o preto, o vermelho e o.... branco. ou seja, "in the long run" o casino lucra.

[Sr_SNiper]

Podes esplanar a parte 4 mais um pouco? obrigado

[LTCM]

4. IT IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY TO HAVE AN EDGE
You can't win without an edge, even with the world's greatest discipline and money management skills. If you could, then it would be possible to win at roulette (over the long run) using perfect discipline and risk control. Of course, that is an impossible task because of the laws of probability. If you don't have an edge, all that money management and discipline will do for you is to guarantee that you will gradually bleed to death. Incidentally, if you don't know what your edge is, you don't have one.

5. DERIVE A METHOD
To have an edge, you must have a method. The type of method is irrelevant. Some of the supertraders are pure fundamentalists; some are pure technicians; and some are hybrids. Even within each group, there are tremendous variations. For example, within the group of technicians, there are tape readers (or their modem-day equivalent-screen watchers), chartists, mechanical system traders, EIliott Wave analysts, Gann analysts, and so on. The type of method is not important, but having one is critical-and, of course, the method must have an edge.

6. DEVELOPING A METHOD IS HARD WORK
Shortcuts rarely lead to trading success. Developing your own approach requires research, observation, and thought. Expect the process to take lots of time and hard work. Expect many dead ends and multiple failures before you find a successful trading approach that is right for you. Remember that you are playing against tens of thousands of professionals. Why should you be any better? If it were that easy, there would be a lot more millionaire traders.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS - JACK D. SCHWAGER

[LTCM]

1. FIRST THINGS FIRST
First, be sure that you really want to trade. As both Krausz and Faulkner confirmed, based on their experience in working with traders, it is common for people who think they want to trade to discover that they really don't.

2. EXAMINE YOUR MOTIVES
Think about why you really want to trade. If you want to trade for the excitement, you might be better off riding a roller coaster or taking up hang gliding. In my own case, I found that the underlying motive for trading was serenity or peace of mind-hardly the emotional state typical of trading. Another personal motive for trading was that I loved puzzle solving-and the markets provided the ultimate puzzle. However, while I enjoyed the cerebral aspects of market analysis, I didn't particularly like the visceral characteristics of trading itself. The contrast between my motives and the activity resulted in very obvious conflicts. You need to examine your own motives very carefully for any such conflicts. The market is a stem master. You need to do almost everything right to win. If parts of you are pulling in opposite directions, the game is lost before you start.

How did I resolve my own conflict? I decided to focus completely on mechanical trading approaches in order to eliminate the emotionality in trading. Equally important, focusing on the design of mechanical systems directed my energies to the part of trading I did enjoy-the puzzle-solving aspects. Although I had devoted some energy to mechanical systems for these reasons for a number of years, I eventually came to the realization that I wanted to move in this direction exclusively. (This is not intended as an advocacy for mechanical systems over human-decision-oriented approaches. I am only providing a personal example. The appropriate answer for another trader could well be very different.)

3. MATCH THE TRADING METHOD TO YOUR PERSONALITY
It is critical to choose a method that is consistent with your own personality and comfort level. If you can't stand to give back significant profits, then a long-term trend-following approach-even a very good one-will be a disaster, because you will never be able to follow it. If you don't want to watch the quote screen all day (or can't), don't try a day-trading method. If you can't stand the emotional strain of making trading decisions, then try to develop a mechanical system for trading the markets. The approach you use must be right for you; it must feel comfortable. The importance of this cannot be overemphasized. Remember Randy McKay's assertion: "Virtually every successful trader I know ultimately ended up with a trading style suited to his personality."
Incidentally, the mismatch of trading style and personality is one of the key reasons why purchased trading systems rarely make profits for those who buy them, even if the system is a good one. While the odds of getting a winning system are small-certainly less than 50/50-the odds of getting a system that fits your personality are smaller still. I'U leave it to your imagination to decide on the odds of buying a profitable/ moderate risk system and using it effectively.

THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS - JACK D. SCHWAGER