CIP quer preço definido na “compra de férias”

[MarcoAntonio]

Filosoficamente basta olhar para um gráfico para fazer isto Um gráfico não é mais do que as opiniões dos outros sobre o mercado
...

Olhar para um gráfico e daí retirar uma opinião para investimento é... analisar!

Ou seja, voltamos ao mesmo. Quem faz isso e obtém sucesso é porque é bom analista: analisa bem o gráfico.

[janus]

" Não acredito que seja possível atingir o sucesso seguindo os outros (dicas, opiniões, recomendações)."

Filosoficamente basta olhar para um gráfico para fazer isto Um gráfico não é mais do que as opiniões dos outros sobre o mercado... Do ponto de vista prático, penso que o raciocínio do red aplica-se aqui também (é tudo uma questão de validação quantitativa). Posso dar exemplos:
- a estratégia GMOS da JP Morgan, com um information ratio de 1.88 nos últimos 10 anos.
- praticamente todos os produtos de research do Bank Credit Analyst ou do Ned Davis Research
- hedge funds long/short que utilizam factores "alpha" baseados por exemplo no consenso de analistas.

Mas consigo preceber o teu ponto de vista: a diferença face a um investidor particular é que este não segue estas fontes de informação de forma consistente... Por outro lado são muito poucos os produtos de research que mostram estatísticas de performance...

[semprefrio]

Não acredito que seja possível atingir o sucesso seguindo os outros (dicas, opiniões, recomendações).

É possível efectuar alguns bons trades, obter um sucesso temporário, mas não acredito em resultados consistentes e duradouros em alguém que está constantemente depende da opinião dos outros...

Se o obtém é porque há também mérito próprio: mérito na capacidade de analisar a opinião dos outros.

Portanto, é mais uma vez um bom analista. É que há muitas formas de se ser bom analista...

Concordo com tudo o que dizes.

Mas eu queria aprofundar um pouco mais esta reflexão.

O cerne da questão: a velhinha discussão em torno da importância da análise e do money management.

Eu vejo as coisas assim:
- um bom a analista será sempre um mau trader se não utilizar qualquer tipo de money management,
- no entanto é possível que um bom money manager seja um bom trader não utilizando qualquer tipo de análise, isto é, no limite, abrindo posições aleatoreamente.

Eu sei que isto é polémico e não significa que eu não dê importância à análise, no meu caso AT.

Mas acaba por passar por aquilo que o Ulisses e outros já afirmaram neste tópico: existem excelentes ATs que deixam muito a desejar enquanto traders!!

Não será possível que todos os excelentes Money Managers sejam sempre bons traders?

Eu cada vez mais tendo a acreditar que sim. Mas esta é mesmo só a minha opinião.

Um abraço,
semprefrio

[D1as]

''The Kybalion''
The Lips Of Wisdom Are Closed, Except To The Ears Of Understanding...



Where Fall The Footsteps Of The Master, The Ears Of Those Ready For His Teaching Open Wide
When The Ears Of The Student Are Ready To Hear, Then Cometh The Lips To Fill Them With Wisdom
The Principles Of The Truth Are Seven...
He Who Knows These Understandingly, Posses The Magic Key Before Whose Touch All The Doors Of The Temple Fly Open.
Mind As Well As Elements And Metals May Be Transmuted From State To State,
Degree To Degree, Condition To Condition, Pole To Pole, Vibration To Vibration,
True Hermetic Transmutation Is A Mental Art.
The All
Under, And Back Of, The Universe Of Time, Space And Change, Is Ever To Be Found
The Substantial Reality, The Fundamental Truth...That Which Is The Fundamental Truth, The Substantial Reality Is Beyond True Naming, But Wise Men Call It The All
In Its Essence 'The All' Is Unknowable
It Is Spirit (?)
The Animating Force...(?)
The Living Mind...
The Universe Is Mental... Held In The Mind Of The All
The All Creates In Its Infinite Mind, Countless Universes Which Exist For Aeons Of Time, And Yet To 'The All', The Creation, Development, Decline, And The Death Of A Million Universes Is As The Time Of The Twinkling Of An Eye.

-----------------------------------------------------

The Seven Hermetic Principles



Mentalism

''The All Is Mind; The Universe Is Mental.''

Correspondence

''As Above, So Below; As Below, So Above.''

Vibration

''Nothing Rests; Everything Moves; Everything Vibrates''

Polarity

''Everything Is Dual; Everything Has Its Pair Of Opposites; Like And Unlike Are The Same; Opposites Are Identical In Nature, But Different In Degree; Extremes Meet; All Truths Are But Half Truths ; All Paradoxes May Be Reconciled.''

Rhythm

''Everything Flows Out And In; Everything Has Its Tides; All Things Rise And Fall; The Pendulum Swing Manifests In Everything. The Measure Of The Swing To The Right Is The Measure Of The Swing To The Left; Rhythm Compensates''

Cause And Effect

''Every Cause Has Its Effect; Every Effect Has Its Cause; Everything Happens According To The Law; Chance Is A Name For The Law Not Recognised; The Are Many Planes Of Causation, But Nothing Escapes The Law.''

Gender

''Gender Is In Everything; Everything Has Its Masculine And Feminine Principle;

''Gender Manifests On All Planes.


-----------------------------------------------------

The Paradox

The Half Wise, Recognising The Comparative Unreality Of The Universe, Imagine That They May Defy Its Laws...Such Are Vain And Presumptuous Fools, As They Are Broken Against The Rocks And Torn Asunder By Reason Of There Folly. The Truly Wise, Knowing The Nature Of The Universe, Use Laws Against Laws; The Higher Against The Lower; And By The Art Of (Mental) Alchemy Transmute That Which Is Undesirable Into That Which Is Worthy, And Thus Triumph. Mastery Consists Not In Abnormal Dreams, Visions And Fantastic Imaginings Or Livings, But In Using The Higher Forces Against The Lower, Escaping The Pains Of The Lower Planes By Vibrating On The Higher. Transmutation Not Presumptuous Denial Is The Weapon Of The Master.

[Red]

Como o desenrolar desta conversa veio na sequência do meu post inicial, prefiro deixar claro que eu não me revejo nas críticas ferozes que são feitas a Gann... No essencial, e pegando no que disse o Arnie, desconheço Gann e portanto não comento.

Parece-me que só há uma forma de passar por cima do 'Hype', ruito e mito que existe à volta de Gann, e é estudá-lo. O meu interesse é grande e um dia pretendo fazer exactamente isso.

Abraço,
red

[arnie]

Isto já parece aqueles casos de hate him / love him

Porque razão hoje em dia se continua a rejeitar/ter medo do desconhecido? Não seria melhor estudar, conhecer e só depois
rejeitar ou abraçar as ideias? Enfim......

Eu acho que o problema em aceitar as ideias de Gann são esses mesmos sites que exploram os seus feitos enquanto trader, analista e escritor. As pessoas ficam com a ideia que homem era um tipo de deus ao errar apenas 10% das vezes.

O que interessa saber se ele morreu com uma fortuna de 50 milhões ou morreu pobre a morar debaixo de uma ponte? Por acaso isso anula o genio da matematica que ele foi? Anula todas as suas ideias sobre ciclos e afins que hoje em dia são utilizados por milhões de traders nos seus sistemas? (leia-se neste caso que estes sistemas utilizam ideias derivadas de alguns estudos de Gann e claro, muitos utilizam as ideias originais de Gann)

As novelas em roda da vida de Gann parece aquelas que rondam a vida do Jesse Livermore. Ampliam de tal maneira os seus feitos que os "rookies" nestas andanças de AT pensam que estes homens eram uma especie de deuses.
Infelizmente, para o Gann, pouco ou nada se sabe realmente sobre a sua vida pois, que eu saiba, não existe nenhum livro biográfico. Em compensação, Livermore possui 2 livros, o Reminiscences que é uma biografia com alguma ficção à mistura e o Jesse Livermore que conta o outro lado, a vida mais privada e onde se descobre que era vitima de depressões profundas e que a ultima o levou à morte, tendo-se suicidado.

Gann foi e continuará a ser brilhante mas talvez a pessoa que peque nos seus estudos e molde-os à sua personalidade, pegue nesses estudos e seja capaz de os modificar, melhorar, seja também tão ou mais brilhante como Gann o foi.

Se ainda não notaram, i'm a Gann lover no entanto, existe muita coisa a que torço o nariz, tal como a historia da astrologia e afins. Mas apesar de torcer o nariz, não lhe fecho as portas. Tá provado cientificamente que a lua interfere com a vida quotidiana do nosso planeta. Interfere com as reacções dos seres vivos. Ora se o que faz mover os mercados financeiros são as "massas" então não será plausivel admitir que é possivel atraves da astrologia encontrar-se algum tipo de sistema de trading de acordo com algum tipo de padrão de massas gerado pela lua ou por outra coisa qualquer astral?
É possivel, quem sabe. Como disse, torço o nariz relativamente a esta area mas não lhe fecho as portas. No entanto, deixo esta area para os astrologos. Existe certamente areas mais faceis de reconhecimento ao tipico trader/investidor

um abraço
arnie

[MarcoAntonio]

eu acho q para se ser um bom trader tb tem de se ser um bom analista, independentemente do tipo de análise, pq na realidade a análise pode tão somente ser um medir do pulso aos sentimentos

Exacto, era precisamente aí que eu quería chegar...

[MarcoAntonio]

Sabes Marco, a verdade é que eu cada vez me interrogo mais sobre esta questão.

Imagina uma pessoa que não percebe nada de análise. Apenas frequenta um forum para conhecer o ambiente: "as coisas estão a subir ou a descer?".
Estão a subir. Então apenas aplica regras de money management, tipo as 24 que de Gann que atrás enunciaste. Mas aplica-as mesmo. Não as descura.

Não é um bom analista. Aliás, não percebe nem quer perceber nada de análise. Entra aleatoriamente em big caps, corta cedo as perdas e deixa os ganhos rolarem. Chega ao fim do ano com um resultado extremamente positivo, melhor que o de muitos bons analistas.

Achas possível?

A minha dúvida acaba por ser esta: quem são os bons traders? É condição indispensável ser um bom analista para ser um bom trader?

Desculpa lá estas questões, mas por muito óbvias que sejam (e para mim não são), acho que temos muito a ganhar em discuti-las.

Não, não acho possível.

Não acredito que seja possível atingir o sucesso seguindo os outros (dicas, opiniões, recomendações).

É possível efectuar alguns bons trades, obter um sucesso temporário, mas não acredito em resultados consistentes e duradouros em alguém que está constantemente depende da opinião dos outros...

Se o obtém é porque há também mérito próprio: mérito na capacidade de analisar a opinião dos outros.

Portanto, é mais uma vez um bom analista. É que há muitas formas de se ser bom analista...

[semprefrio]

semprefrio,
a meu ver, o q estás a falar n é um bom trader mas sim um bom "oportunista". ou melhor, um bom "oportunista", trader
qd desaparecerem as "muletas" q esses "oportunistas" usam, lá se vai o "bom" e fica só o trader

abraço

A minha ideia não era bem essa.
E acho que tu percebeste o que tentei dizer.

Quanto "traders de muletas" acho que a maior parte dos iniciantes passam por ela: a busca dos traders gurus é um sintoma. E acho até que pode ser considerada uma fase natural de crescimento.

Aqueles que nunca deixam as muletas, esses estou de pleno acordo contigo. Mais tarde ou mais cedo lá se vai o bom ... e muitas vezes também o trader.

O texto que o visistante anterior deixou é muito bom, mas fica mesmo no ar aquele cheirinho a "carta astral".

Abraço,
semprefrio

[Visitante]

THE TICKER AND INVESTMENT DIGEST

Vol. 5
DECEMBER 1909
No.2


Sometime ago the attention of this magazine was attracted by certain long pull stock market predictions which were being made by William D. Gann. In a large number of cases Mr. Gann gave us in advance the exact points at which certain stocks and commodities would sell, together with prices close to the then prevailing figures which would not be touched.

For instance, when New York Central was 131 he predicted that it would sell at 145 before 129.

So repeatedly did his figures prove to be accurate, and so different did his work appear from that of any expert whose methods we had examined, that we set about to investigate Mr. Gann and his way of figuring out these predictions, as well as the particular use which he was making of them in the market.

The results of this investigation are remarkable in many ways.

It appears to be a fact that Mr. Gann has developed an entirely new idea as to the principles governing stock market movements. He bases his operations upon certain natural laws which though existing since the world began, have only in recent years been subjected to the will of man, and added to the list of so-called discoveries.

We have asked Mr. Gann for an outline of his work, and have secured some remarkable evidence as to the results obtained therefrom. We submit this in full recognition of the fact that in Wall Street, a man with a new idea, an idea which violates the traditions and encourages a scientific view of the proposition is not usually welcomed by the majority, for the reason that he stimulates thought and research. These activities said majority abhors.

Mr. Gann's description of his experience and methods is given herewith. It should be read with a recognition of the established fact that Mr. Gann's predictions have proved correct in a large majority of instances.

"For the past ten years I have devoted my entire time and attention to the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollars and experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice who enters the market without preparatory knowledge of the subject.

"I soon began to realize that all successful men, whether lawyers, doctors, or scientists, devoted years of time to the study and investigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attempting to make any money out of it.

"Being in the brokerage business myself and handling large accounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man for studying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. I found that over ninety per cent of the traders who go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in the end.

"I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fall in stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude that natural law was the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote ten years of my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculative markets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation a profitable profession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the Law of Vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the Street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses.

"It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the Law of Vibration as I apply it to the markets, however, the layman may be able to grasp some of the principles when I state that the Law of Vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wireless telephone and phonographs are based. Without the existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible.

"In order to test out the efficiency-of my idea I have not only put in years of labor in the regular way, but I spent nine months working night and day in the Astor Library of New York and in the British Museum of London, going over the records of stock transactions as far back as 1820. 1 have incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould, Daniel Drew, Commodore Vanderbilt, and all the other important Wall Street manipulators from that time to the present day. I have examined every quotation of Union Pacific prior to and from the time of E.H. Harriman's securing control, and can say that of all the manipulations in the history of Wall Street, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. The figures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman worked strictly in accordance with natural law.

"In going over the history of markets and the great mass of related statistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern the changes and variations in the value of stocks and there exists a periodic or cyclic law, which is at the back of all these movements. Observation has shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on the Exchange followed by periods of inactivity. Mr. Henry Hall, in his recent book devoted much space to 'Cycles of Prosperity and Depression' which he found recurring at regular intervals of time. The law which I have applied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the daily and even hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met.

Those in close touch with the market have noticed the phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the Law of Vibration governs and controls these conditions. I have also found that certain phases of this law governs the rise in a stock and an entirely different rule operates on the decline.

"While Union Pacific. and other railroad stocks which made their high prices in August were declining, United States Steel common was steadily advancing. The Law of Vibration was at work, sending a particular stock on the upward trend, whilst others were trending downward.

"I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic or inharmonic relationship to the driving power or force behind it. The secret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I can determine the vibration of each stock and by also taking certain time values into consideration I can in the majority of cases tell exactly what the stock will do under given conditions.

"The power to determine the trend of the market is due to my knowledge of the characteristics of each individual stock and a certain grouping of different stocks under their proper rates of vibration. Stocks are like electrons, atoms, and molecules, which hold persistently to their own individuality in response to the fundamental Law of Vibration. Science teaches 'that an original impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into periodic or rhythmical motion,' also 'just as the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the advancing year ever brings the roses of spring, so do the properties of the elements periodically recur as the weight of the atoms rises.'

"From my extensive investigations, studies and applied tests, I find that not only do the various stocks vibrate, but that the driving forces controlling the stocks are also in a state of vibration. These vibratory forces can only be known by the movements they generate on the stocks and their values in the market. Since all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic they act in accordance with periodic law.

"Science had laid down the principle that 'the properties of an element are a periodic function of its atomic weight.' A famous scientist has stated that 'we are brought to the conviction that diversity in phenomenal nature in its different kingdoms, is most intimately associated with numerical relationship. The numbers are not intermixed, chaotically and accidentally, but are subject to regular periodicity. The changes and developments are also seen to be in many cases undulatory.'

"Thus, I affirm, every class of phenomena, whether in nature or in the stock market, must be subject to the Universal Law of Causation and Harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.

"If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday said: 'There is nothing in the Universe but mathematical points of force.'

"Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe.

"Through the Law of Vibration every stock in the market moves in its own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume and direction; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized in its own rate of vibration. Stocks, like atoms, are really centers of energies, therefore they are controlled, mathematically. Stocks create their own field of action and power; power to attract and repel, which principle explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turn dead' at other times. Thus to speculate scientifically it is absolutely necessary to follow natural law.

"After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction as well as demonstrated to others that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market."

In order to substantiate Mr. Gann's claims as to what he has been able to do under this method, we called upon Mr. William E. Gilley, an Inspector of Imports, 16 Beaver Street, New York. Mr. Gilley is well-known in the downtown district. He himself has studied stock market movements for twenty-five years, during which time he has examined every piece of market literature that has been issued and procurable in Wall Street. It was he who encouraged Mr. Gann to study out the scientific and mathematical possibilities of the subject. When asked what had been the most impressive of Mr. Gann's work and predictions, he replied as follows:

"It is very difficult for me to remember all the predictions and operations of Mr. Gann which may be classed as phenomenal, but the following are a few: In 1908 when Union Pacific was 168-1/8, he told me that it would not touch 169 before it had a good break. We sold it short all the way down to 152-5/8, covering on the weak spots and putting it out again on the rallies, securing twenty-three points profit out of an eighteen-point wave.

"He came to me when United States Steel was selling around 50 and said "This Steel will run up to 58 but it will not sell at 59. From there it should break 16-3/4 points. 'We sold it short around 58-3/4 with a stop at 59. The highest it went was 58 3/4. From there it declined to 41 1/4 - 17 1/2 points.

"At another time wheat was selling at about 89 cents. He predicted that the May option would sell at $1.35. We bought it and made large profits on the way up. It actually touched $1.35-1/2.

"When Union Pacific as 172, he said it would go to 187 7/8 but not an eighth higher until it had had a good break. It went to 184-7/8 and came back from there eight or nine times. We sold it short repeatedly with a stop at 185 and were never caught. It eventually came back to 172-1/2.

"Mr. Gann's calculations are based on natural law. I have followed his work closely for years. I know that he had a firm grasp of the basic principles which govern stock market movements, and I do not believe any other man on earth can duplicate the idea or his method at the present time.

"Early this year he figures that the top of the advance would fall on a certain day in August and calculated the prices at which the Dow-Jones averages would then stand. The market culminated on the exact day and within four-tenths of one percent of the figures predicted."

"You and Mr. Gann must have cleaned up considerable money on all these operations," we suggested.

"Yes, we have made a great deal of money. He has taken half a million dollars out of the market in the past few years. I once saw him take $130, and in less than one month run it up to over $12,000. He can compound money faster than any man I ever met."

"One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer (1909) when he predicted that September wheat would sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option was selling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled. Mr. Gann said, 'If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there." It is common history that September wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of the trading, closing at that figure."

So much for what Mr. Gann has said and done as evidenced by himself and others. Now as to what demonstrations have taken place before our representative:

During the month of October, 1909, in twenty-five market days, Mr. Gann made, in the presence of our representative, two hundred and eighty-six transactions in various stocks, on both the long and short side of the market. Two hundred and sixty-four of these transactions resulted in profits, twenty-two in losses.

The capital with which he operated was doubled ten times, so that at the end of the month he had one thousand per cent on his original margin.

In our presence Mr. Gann sold Steel common short at 94-7/8, saying that it would not go to 95. It did not.

On a drive which occurred during the week ending October 29, Mr. Gann bought Steel common at 86-1/4, saying that it would not go to 86. The lowest it sold was 86-1/8.

We have seen him give in one day sixteen successive orders in the same stock, eight of which turned out to beat either the top or the bottom eighth of that particular swing. The above we can positively verify.

Such performances as these, coupled with the foregoing, are probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.

James R. Keene has said, "The man who is right six times out of ten will make his fortune." Here is a trader, who, without any attempt to make a showing (for he did not know the results were to be published), established a record of over ninety-two per cent profitable trades.

Mr. Gann has refused to disclose his method at any price, but to those scientifically inclined he has unquestionably added to the stock of Wall Street knowledge and pointed out infinite possibilities.

We have requested Mr. Gann to figure out for the readers of The Ticker a few of the most striking indications which appear in his calculations. In presenting these we wish it understood that no man, in or out of Wall Street, in infallible.

Mr. Gann's figures at present indicate that the trend of the stock market should, barring the usual rallies be toward lower prices until March or April, 1910.

He calculates that May wheat, which is now selling at $1.02, should not sell below 99 cents and should sell at $1.45 next spring.

On cotton, which is now at about the 15 cent level, he estimates that, after a good reaction from these prices, the commodity should reach 18 cents in the spring of 1910. He locks for a corner in the March or May option.

Whether these figures prove correct or not, will in no sense detract from the record which Mr. Gann has already established.

Mr. Gann was born in Lufkin, Texas, and is thirty-one years of age. He is a gifted mathematician, has an extraordinary memory for figures, and is an expert Tape Reader. Take away his science and he would beat the market on his intuitive tape reading alone.

Endowed as he is with such qualities, we have no hesitation in predicting that within a comparatively few years William D. Gann will receive full recognition as one of Wall Street's leading operators.

Note: - Since the above forecast was made, Cotton has suffered the expected decline, the extreme break having been 120 points. The lowest on May wheat thus far has been $1.01-5/8. It is now selling at $1.06-1/4.

Há muita mais informação sobre este tipo de "feitos" e até "documentada" pelo próprio Gann com um ano e mais de antecedência, efectuada ao longo de cerca de 2 décadas... esta entrevista ressalta somente pelo caracter sério da publicação e do acompanhamento "em real" de alguns negócios.

O homem tinha um barco e avião privado (com piloto privado também, uma senhora por sinal...) na década de 50. Se hoje isso é sinal de status/riqueza então na altura... lol

the lips of wisdom are closed except to(...)

[D1as]

eu acho q para se ser um bom trader tb tem de se ser um bom analista, independentemente do tipo de análise, pq na realidade a análise pode tão somente ser um medir do pulso aos sentimentos

semprefrio,
a meu ver, o q estás a falar n é um bom trader mas sim um bom "oportunista". ou melhor, um bom "oportunista", trader
qd desaparecerem as "muletas" q esses "oportunistas" usam, lá se vai o "bom" e fica só o trader

abraço

[semprefrio]

Agora deixo mais uma pergunta: existem bons traders que não sejam bons analistas (técnicos ou fundamentais)?

Um bom trader tem de ser um bom analista (nem que seja para uso domestico). Poderá é não ser um bom analista para as massas por dificuldade em se expressar ou transmitir de forma clara e lucida as suas opiniões...

Sabes Marco, a verdade é que eu cada vez me interrogo mais sobre esta questão.

Imagina uma pessoa que não percebe nada de análise. Apenas frequenta um forum para conhecer o ambiente: "as coisas estão a subir ou a descer?".
Estão a subir. Então apenas aplica regras de money management, tipo as 24 que de Gann que atrás enunciaste. Mas aplica-as mesmo. Não as descura.

Não é um bom analista. Aliás, não percebe nem quer perceber nada de análise. Entra aleatoriamente em big caps, corta cedo as perdas e deixa os ganhos rolarem. Chega ao fim do ano com um resultado extremamente positivo, melhor que o de muitos bons analistas.

Achas possível?

A minha dúvida acaba por ser esta: quem são os bons traders? É condição indispensável ser um bom analista para ser um bom trader?

Desculpa lá estas questões, mas por muito óbvias que sejam (e para mim não são), acho que temos muito a ganhar em discuti-las.

Um abraço,
semprefrio

[MarcoAntonio]

Agora deixo mais uma pergunta: existem bons traders que não sejam bons analistas (técnicos ou fundamentais)?

Um bom trader tem de ser um bom analista (nem que seja para uso domestico). Poderá é não ser um bom analista para as massas por dificuldade em se expressar ou transmitir de forma clara e lucida as suas opiniões...

[semprefrio]

Eu volto a insistir no meu ponto: Há pessoas que são excelentes analistas que recomendo vivamente a sua leitura e que são horríveis "traders". Uma coisa é o que se diz para fazer, o que se prevê, etc... outra é a forma como se negoceia na realidade.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Perfeitamente de acordo !!!

Como o outro poderia dizer: "Bons analistas há muitos..."

Em resumo:

- um mau analista pode nem perder dinheiro, basta não negociar, mas também não ganha;

- um mau trader perde dinheiro;

- um bom analista pode até perder dinheiro, basta não saber negociar;

- um bom trader ganha dinheiro.


Agora deixo mais uma pergunta: existem bons traders que não sejam bons analistas (técnicos ou fundamentais)?


Um abraço,
semprefrio

[MarcoAntonio]

Sem dúvida, Ulisses, e nisso estamos perfeitamente de acordo.

Volto ainda a insistir que a minha intervenção não pretendía defender ou atacar o mérito e valor de Gann (e das suas teorias) em si, mas apenas apresentar as reservas que eu creio que devemos ter pelo menos em relação a certas coisas que se escrevem sobre ele (algumas das quais são controversas e não estão devidamente provadas).

Só isso...

[Ulisses Pereira]

Eu volto a insistir no meu ponto: Há pessoas que são excelentes analistas que recomendo vivamente a sua leitura e que são horríveis "traders". Uma coisa é o que se diz para fazer, o que se prevê, etc... outra é a forma como se negoceia na realidade.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[semprefrio]

Bom dia.

Este tópico tem tido um desenvolvimento bastante interessante.

Todos os traders procuram prever o futuro. Isto é, quando se entra num trade é porque que se julga que as probabilidades do futuro se desenvolver na sua direcção são bastante superiores às probabilidades de isso não acontecer. Uns pensam numa escala de minutos, outros horas ... dias, ... semanas, ... meses, ... anos; mas todos tentam prever o futuro.

No entanto, tenho que reconhecer o meu cepticismo face a previsões (quase) exactas do futuro, seja a que nível for. Também reconheço que o meu cepticismo aumenta quando não compreendo o funcionamento dos instrumentos utilizados.

No entanto, algo que gostei de ver destacado pelo MA foram as 24 regras de Gann. Acho que a principal lição encontra-se aí: sejam quais forem as técnicas de previsão utilizadas e a confiança que o trader tenha nelas, nunca, mas nunca pode descurar as questões relacionadas com a preservação do capital.

Um abraço,
semprefrio

[MarcoAntonio]

Já agora, deixo aqui um excerto de um dos seus livros, que obtive após uma rapida pesquisa na documentação que tenho sobre Gann:

24 Never Failing Rules

1 - Amount of capital to use: Divide your capital into 10 equal parts and never risk more than 1/10 in any one trade.

2 - Use stop loss orders.

3 - Never Over trade. This would be violating your capital rule.

4 - Never let a profit run into a loss. After you once have a profit of 3 or more points, raise your stop loss order.

5 - Do not buck the trend. Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend according to your charts.

6 - When in doubt, get out and don’t get in when in doubt.

7 - Trade only in active stocks; keep out of slow dead ones.

8 - Equal distribution of risk. Trade in 4 or 5 stocks (Never more than 10)

9 - Never limit your orders or fix a buying or selling price. Trade at the market.

10 - Don’t close your trades without a good reason. follow up with stop loss order to protect your profits

11 - Accumulate a surplus. After you have made a series of successful trades put some money into surplus account to be used only in emergency or in times of (market) panic.

12 - Never buy just to get a dividend.

13 - Never average a loss. This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can do.

14 - Never get out of the market just because you have lost patience or get into the market because you are anxious from waiting.

15 - Avoid taking small profits and big losses.

16 - Never Cancel a stop loss order after you have placed it at the time you make a trade.

17 - Avoid getting in and out of the market too often.

18 - Be just as will to sell short as you are to buy. Let your be to keep with the trend and make money.

19 - Never buy just because the price of the stock is low or sell short just because it is high.

20 - Be careful about pyramiding at the wrong time. Wait until the stock is very active and has crossed Resistance Levels before buying more and has broken out of the distribution zone before selling more.

21 - Select the stocks with small volume of shares outstanding to pyramid on the buying side and ones with the largest volume of stock out standing to sell short.

22 - Never hedge. If you are long of one stock and it starts to go down, do not sell another stock short to hedge it. Get out at the market; take your loss and wait for another opportunity.

23 - Never change your position in the market without a good reason. When you make a trade, let it be for some good reason or according to some definite plan; then do not get out without a definite indication of a change in trend.

24 - Avoid increasing your trading after a long period of success or a period of profitable trades

A generalidade destas regras são hoje em dia sobejamente conhecidas, encontram-se em inumeros livros de inumeros autores e muitas deles podemos já considerar lugares comuns entre os traders. Suponho que Gann terá sido dos primeiros, talvez juntamente com Livermore, a escrever este tipo de máximas, mas como estamos a falar da primeira metade do Séc. XX podem existir outros autores - ou mesmo traders que não chegaram a escrever - que defendiam regras deste tipo. É ainda possível que as regras já fossem lugares comuns nesta altura entre os investidores experientes...

[MarcoAntonio]

Eu tb não sou fã de gann nem ganncéptico (sinceramente, não o estudei suficientemente aprofundadamente para tomar qq uma das posições).

Sou antes céptico relativamente a algumas coisas que se dizem sobre Gann (o que não quer que ele não tenha valor ou mérito). Basta ver algumas coisas que surgem nos textos que Cem aqui colocou. Há passagens como a história de o método dele ser tão preciso que só falhava quando quería que... enfim. Eu não consigo não ficar céptico perante determinadas coisas. Mas volto a dizer, uma coisa é a mistificação que fazem de Gann (não tenho grandes dúvidas que parte é mistificação que serve interesses comerciais), outra é o valor que realmente Gann tinha e sobre esse, sinceramente, não me posso pronunciar...

Relativamente ao Money Managament, apesar de conhecer Gann muito superficialmente creio saber que era algo a que ele dava muita atenção e que fala nos seus livros (stop losses, disciplina, money managemente e gestão de posições parciais, etc). Creio que ele fala bastante nisso nos seus livros e que era algo a que ele dava grande atenção.

O que dizes é verdade, Ulisses, mas creio que não se aplicaría neste caso (ou supostamente não se aplica, pois era algo que ele defendia e sobre o que escrevía, a disciplina, o moneymanagement, os stop losses, etc).

[Ulisses Pereira]

Ter uma excelente % de acertos e perder dinheiro é perfeitamente possível, assim como o inverso. Gann podia, de facto, ter extraordinárias %s de acerto e descurar completamente o "moneymanagement", não ter "stops", ser teimoso, etc... o que o levaria à ruína.

Falo de cor, sem saber exactamente a história, mas acreditem que há extraordinários analistas que depois acabam por perder bastante dinheiro por serem indisciplinados e não saberem lidar com as perdas.

Nem sou fã de Gann nem Ganncéptico

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Ming]

E, já agora, que é que ele fez aos milhões ganhos?

[Ming]

Cem:

Gostaria de realçar as palaras do MA sobre a credibilidade dos sites defensores (e geralmente vendedores) do Gann. Afinal de contas tambem encontras n sites a defender que os extraterrestes andam entre nós e até sites a defender a Al Qaeda.

Pensa nesta citação do primeiro dos sites que referencias:

He netted over $50,000,000 from the markets during his trading career, averaging success rate for trades of 80%-90%. It has been said that Gann could very well have been right ALL the time: any losses incurred by him were only there by his own design and not because any faults with his methods.

Ok. Ele era deus. Acertava 100% das vezes nas previsões, mas depois às vezes falhava os trades porque queria. (Só lamento que, já agora, não tenham explicado porque é que ele queria falhar à vezes. Devia ter piada ler essa explicação.)

Ou exemplo, de outra das tuas citações de sites:

W. D. Gann was so accurate in his techniques that he made 286 trades in a period of 25 market days with 264 trades being profitable. Mr. Gann in 1933 made 479 trades of which 422 were winners and 57 were losers and he had a return of over 4000%. Gann consistently repeated these incredible trading feats during the rest of his career, with forecasts in the markets one year in advance.

Ok.
Mas amanhã eu posso ter no ar um site que diz que durante 40 dias consecutivos, em 1930, o gann realizou 410 trades e perdeu em 293, após o que se retirou dos negócios durante várias semanas, durante as quais ficou fechado em casa sem que ninguem lhe conseguisse pôr a vista em cima...

[MarcoAntonio]

Viva,

não resisto a colocar um aparte.

Mas antes demais devo dizer que, relativamente a Gann, sei pouco. É um assunto que nunca me despertou verdadeiramente a atenção (possivelmente qq dia dedico-lhe alguma atenção para estudar mais aprofundamente as teorias dele pois o que sei é superficial).

Mas gostaría de referir que é necessário ter alguma cautela sobre o que se encontra escrito na net. Já li por diversas vezes de que não existe qq prova de que ele tenha realmente feito 50 Milhões de Dolares embora isso apareça escrito em muito lado. Uns dizem que é mito outros dizem que ele «escondeu» o dinheiro dos herdeiros (que sinceramente me parece mais mitologia em cima de mitologia, mas para ser honesto não tenho conhecimento de causa suficiente para opinar).

No entanto, atribuo uma credibilidade muito baixa a estes exemplos, principalmente sabendo que existe quem defenda que não passa de um mito.

Seja verdade, seja mentira, a verdade é que na internet os Mitos passam com grande facilidade e as mensagens proliferam-se com uma velocidade e um alcance incrível. Obviamente que o Mito, a existir, não será duvido unicamente à internet, mas esta ajuda a exponencia-lo pois os autores do site editam textos muitas vezes que são retirados de outros locais e sobre os quais não é verificada a autencidade.

Este fenomeno é tão prolífero na internet que existem sites que se dedicam a desfazer mitos e já deparei com alguns desses sites descobrindo coisas interessantíssimas.

Um dos exemplos que costumo citar é o já célebre equívoco sobre a caneta da era espacial (que escreve na ausencia de gravidade) que custou não sei quantos milhões de dolares ao governo dos Estados Unidos e que os Soviéticos, muito pragmáticos, pouparam (os milhões de dolares) usando simplesmente... um lápis.

Este exemplo, o que tem de interessante, é que, como é contado e consitui uma bela historia, convence qq um que não se dá ao trabalho de verificar a veracidade da história. A verdade é que a historia, tal como é contada, nada tem de verídico. O lápis é perigoso no espaço e mesmo os soviéticos evitaram usa-lo. O que é que usaram então?...

Precisamente a caneta inventada pelos americanos (ou melhor cópias dela).

Enfim, a história ainda tem mais pormenores falsos (como os milhões gastos no seu desenvolvimento, que não foram gastos pelo governo americano mas sim pela empresa privada que a desenvolveu e que facilmente recuperou depois o investimento com marketing e vendendo a caneta ao publico em geral).

Aparentemente esta historia não terá nada a ver com o assunto em causa. Mas o que eu pretendo destacar é que a veracidade do que se encontra na internet é, a maioría das vezes, bastante discutível, infelizmente e eu tornei-me um céptico por natureza.

A relação com Gann?

Apenas que é uma bela historia (seja verdade ou seja mentira) que ele tenha feito 50 milhoes de dolares e que é o tipo de historia que proliferá por sites da internet com toda a facilidade (até porque muitos recorrem a outros sites, que por sua vez recorreram a outros sites e por aí adiante).

Não estou a dizer, sublinho, que é verdade ou que é mentira. O pouco que sei sobre o assunto é que esse valor é referido muitas vezes mas que também é referido que ele deixou uma modesta conta aos herdeiros e que não existe qq prova dos 50 Milhoes...

Sobre as previsões e grande taxa de acerto, tenho uma certa dose de cepticismo. Aliás, para ele ser um bom analista nem precisaría de tal taxa de acerto que sinceramente me parece exagerada e mistificada (até poderá ser verdade). A questão é que quando se fala de previsões e de visionários, principalmente à posteriori, tende a ser bastante empolado porque constituiem historias interessantes e que mexem connosco e nos maravilham. Um exemplo clássico é o de Nostradamus, sobre o qual 90% do que se diz sobre as fabulosas previsões é mistificação. Quem ler as célebres «centúrias» rapidamente constata que as previsões são tudo menos evidentes e que se os acontecimentos posteriores tivessem sido diferentes, as centúrias continuaríam a servir, com outras interpretações é claro mas continuaríam a servir como fabulosas previsões.

Só para finalizar, não digo de forma alguma que Gann não tenha mérito algum (em boa verdade não conheço o trabalho dele detalhadamente). Mas tenho sérias dúvidas quanto à exactidão daquilo que se diz (nomeadamente sobre a taxa de acerto)...

[Cem]

Bem, Ming, certamente nós não estávamos lá a assistir à taxa de sucesso das previsões, mas uma data de fontes diversas falam de valores nessa ordem de grandeza.
O texto que deixei acima, assinado pelo neto dele, falava em 85% mas para evitar tendenciosismos fui ao motor de busca da net "Mamma.com" e meti as palavras chave de: Gann AND success AND rate e logo nos primeiros sites obtive:

"WILLIAM D. GANN was a trader of the early part of this century. His abilities for profiting from the stock and commodity markets remain unchallenged and his methods of technical analysis for projecting both price and time targets are unique. Even today, his efforts have yet to be duplicated.
Known as 'The Master Trader' W.D. Gann was born in 1878, in Lufkin, Texas. He netted over $50,000,000 from the markets during his trading career, averaging success rate for trades of 80%-90%. It has been said that Gann could very well have been right ALL the time: any losses incurred by him were only there by his own design and not because any faults with his methods. His successes are legendary. Gann literally converted small accounts into fortunes, increasing their net values by several hundred per cent."

No site logo a seguir estava:

"W. D. Gann started trading in 1902, and opened his own brokerage firm, W.D.Gann & Co. in 1908. During this time Gann based his trading methods on "time", rather than on "price". Using this method made it possible for Gann to determine not only when a change in trend was going to happen, but also at what price he should enter or exit the markets. In 1919 at the age of 41, W.D. Gann began publishing a daily market letter, the Supply and Demand Letter. The letter covered both stocks and commodities and provided its readers with annual forecasts. Forecasting was an activity with which W.D. had become fascinated.
W. D. Gann was so accurate in his techniques that he made 286 trades in a period of 25 market days with 264 trades being profitable. Mr. Gann in 1933 made 479 trades of which 422 were winners and 57 were losers and he had a return of over 4000%. Gann consistently repeated these incredible trading feats during the rest of his career, with forecasts in the markets one year in advance.
W. D. Gann spent more than ten years overseas studying esoteric books on Natural Law, cycles and number vibration that occur in esoteric and religious writings. W.D. Gann believed that studying all aspects of Natural Law, particularly the study of Vibration would increase his knowledge in the markets and how they reacted. His understanding of the esoteric nature of the markets is one of his secrets to trading success!
Some people claim that Gann theory is a wide range of unrelated discoveries. This is not true. Gann believed that the key variables of technical analysis (price, range and time) could be analysed in the same manner. Gann discovered that support and resistance prices could be calculated by taking the price of a market top and dividing this price by four, and by three - in other words, into quarters and thirds. He discovered what is today known as the 'squaring of time and price' and his 'squares' of 52, 90 and 144. Further price resistance points can be calculated by performing similar calculations on ranges and time frames. Gann was an abundant researcher throughout his lifetime with his interests in numerology, weather forecasting, and astrology. He was a very religious man who claimed that he learned about forecasting price movement from the Bible. His knowledge of mathematical and astrological relationships was very advanced in that he used it to formulate trading and technical analysis techniques.
W. D. Gann made other discoveries of a rather esoteric nature. These include the Square of Nine and his other spiral calculators such as the Square of Four, the 360 Degree Circle Chart and the Hexagon Chart. These calculators can sometimes be used to forecast sequences of tops and bottoms in an impressive manner though they are not always right. His average in trading was around 85%, a still very impressive rate of success!"

No quinto site da sequência estava:
"With Gann was 24 in 1902, he made his first trade in cotton futures contract and enjoyed the profit from trading. The 53 years of trading hereafter, it was said that he had gained US$50 million from the market. The wealth of that scale compared with the purchasing power at his time was, in deed, very substantial.
In 1906, Gann moved to Ohakama with ambition to start up his career as broker and trader. His life and trading are with up and down. His advice after decades of trading were that if an investor enters the investment market without a grasp of knowledge, his chance to failure would be 90%. The reasons behind their failures are human emotions: hope, greed and fear are the enemies of success.
Knowledge is the way to win in the market. Starting from his early age, Gann had already realized that the natural law is the underlying driving force that moves the market. He claimed that he had spent 10 years in studying the relationship between natural law and the market. During these 10 years, he had traveled to England, Egypt and India for knowledge. When he was in England, he spent days and nights in the British Museum to study the financial markets for over a hundred years. During that time, he focused himself on ancient mathematics, geometry and astrology for inspiration and revealed their relationships with the financial markets. One of his important techniques, the Gann Cardinal Square, was said to be inspired from the structure of Egyptian and Indian temples.
After the long journey for knowledge, he concluded his findings that the financial markets are driven by the "Law of Vibration". The law once grasped, one can tell the future market time and price with high accuracy. Gann also claimed that the "Rate of Vibration" of individual stocks and futures contracts determine the up and down of their prices.
Unfortunately, the details of his theory are often kept in veil. Late comers are very difficult to grasp the essence of his techniques. In general, his theories are based on the followings: ancient mathematics, geometry, numerology and astrology.
In 1908, Gann moved to New York at the age of 30, where he started his brokerage and research business and serious tested his theories and trading techniques. In the same year, he developed his major technique "Master Time Factor" with success that made him famous on the Wall Street.
In October 1909, he was interviewed by Richard D. Wyckoff of the Ticker and Investment Digest, a then popular financial magazine in early twenties. The interview extended for an usual period of one month in order for the reporter to monitor his trading activities.
To the surprise of the reporter, Gann stroked a return of 1000% on his trading capital. He had made a total of 286 trades in 25 market days, 264 times won and 22 times lost. The profit rate was up to 92.3%. During that month, the average interval between trades was only 20 minutes. On one trading day, he made totally 16 trades, 8 out of them are the reversal points of the intra-day market fluctuation.
According to Gann's friend William Gilley, "One of the most astonishing calculations made by Mr. Gann was during last summer [1909] when he predicted that September Wheat would sell at $1.20. This meant that it must touch that figure before the end of the month of September. At twelve o'clock, Chicago time, on September 30th (the last day) the option was selling below $1.08, and it looked as though his prediction would not be fulfilled. Mr. Gann said, 'If it does not touch $1.20 by the close of the market it will prove that there is something wrong with my whole method of calculation. I do not care what the price is now, it must go there.' It is common history that September Wheat surprised the whole country by selling at $1.20 and no higher in the very last hour of trading, closing at that figure."
At the peak of his career, Gann founded two market research companies, W. D. Gann Scientific Service, Inc. and W. D. Gann Research Inc., and employed 35 people to produce technical charts and conduct market research. He published investment newsletters and made annual stock and commodity forecasts that attracted much attention from the investment community. Gann also hosted several investment and trading seminars. Gann tried to make his teaching secret and confined to few people, every student is not allowed to give the materials out to others. The fees for these seminars were US$2500 and sometimes US$5000, which enormous at his time. It may be equivalent to US$25,000 to US$50,000 nowadays!


His Methods

According to his followers, the accuracy of W. D. Gann's prediction was up to 85%. His predictions actually were not restricted to financial market, Gann also gave predictions on the election of US President and the beginning and ending of World Wars. Gann claimed that his every forecast was solely based on mathematical principles. With sufficient information, he could forecast the forthcoming events with his cycle theory based on ancient mathematics and geometry. In his mind, the nature of things had not changed, all of the events were based on mathematical principles.
What are the mathematical principles?
W. D. Gann said that the 360 degrees of a circle and the numbers from 1 to 9 were the origin of mathematics. In a circle, there may place a square and a triangle. Outside the circle, we may also construct a square and a triangle. These constructions are in fact the dimensions of the market.
Strange enough? In fact, W. D. Gann believed that the market reversal points (tops and bottoms) were related by the mathematical principles. There are no single market top or bottom cannot be explained by angles and support / resistance levels. In other words, if he was given the time and prices of the historical tops and bottoms of any market, he could utilize the mathematical and geometrical principles to predict futures market turning points."

Bem, isto foi só o princípio da informação disponível, que pelos vistos é coincidente, e a realidade é que o Gann só começou a ver muitos dos seus seguidores a virarem-lhe as costas quando começou a usar relações astrológicas e esotéricas que no início da sua actividade nunca existiram!
Mas ok, ninguém está aqui a querer impingir nada que não se goste à partida!
Um abraço,
Cem

[Ming]

Cem:

Como é que é possível chegar a esse resultado de 85% de previsões acertadas?

Isso é a totalidade de previsões realizadas ao longo da sua vida? Ou refere-se só às previsões financeiras?

Como é que foram verificadas? Por quem?

Estamos a falar de previsões binárias (com uma taxa de acerto aleatória de 50%) quantificaveis e verificáveis?

Admitindo isso, como é que é possível que um businessman tão precoce, decidido, trabalhador, etc., que dedicou o essencial da sua vida adulta aos mercados de capitais, tenha conseguido não converter essa fabulosa taxa de previsões acertadas em lucros?

Sinceramente, a nível dos ganns, só quem não quiser ver as coisas é que não as vê...