Imigração e lei da nacionalidade. Afinal, o que quer mudar o Governo?

[pisão]

Eurozone crisis focuses on Andalucía, home to sun, sand and soaring deficits

Senior Spanish officials admitted they were clueless as to the real size of the debt in the biggest region of all

It sells itself to British tourists as a holiday heaven of golden beaches, flamenco dresses and well-stocked sherry bars, but southern Andalucía – home to the Costa del Sol – has now become the focus of worries about the euro.

As inspectors from Brussels demanded answers this week from the Spanish government about how it plans to bring profligate regional governments under control, senior officials admitted they were clueless as to the real size of the debt in the biggest region – party-loving Andalucía.

Antonio Beteta, the junior minister responsible for the regions, claimed that Andalucía was cooking its books and hiding unpaid bills to cover up that debt.

"Andalucía is not being transparent," he said. "There is a problem of both transparency and credibility."

Officials in Andalucía reacted angrily to the claims that they were hiding debt. "I demand that the EU inspectors come to Andalucía and look at our accounts, because they are not opaque and there is no hidden deficit," the region's finance boss Carmen Martínez told El País newspaper.

Beteta's words will not trouble British tourists practising their golf swing or soaking up the sun on Andalucía's Mediterranean beaches, but they must have produced shudders in Brussels – and on the international bond markets that now view Spain as the biggest threat to the euro.

Their worries are centred on the 17 regional governments, which together spend almost four out of every 10 euros of Spain's public money – as much as bailed-out Greece and Portugal spend together.

Last year, despite Spanish pledges of austerity, the regions failed to cut their joint deficit by a single euro – sending Spain's total deficit wildly off target and leaving its reputation for budget control in tatters.

That left the country having to borrow some €17bn (£14bn) more than expected, with wary markets demanding ever higher interest rates as what was once one of Europe's lowest sovereign debts swelled.

A new conservative government led by Mariano Rajoy of the People's party has so far failed to convince investors it can tame the regions and has seen bond yields soar over the past fortnight.

On Friday 10-year bond yields – the interest rate investors demand to lend money to Spain – were pushed up to breach 6%.

Andalucía was one of eight regions that ignored government demands last year to embrace intense austerity, and which produced even higher deficits than in 2010.

Beteta has warned civil servants in the regions, where payrolls swelled by 42% between 2006 and 2010 as local politicians expanded their power bases, that they must change their culture of "coffee breaks and reading the newspaper".

Regional politicians are behind some of Spain's biggest and most costly white elephants. From Valencia's huge, spaceship-like City of the Arts and Sciences to Santiago de Compostela's vast, half-empty City of Culture, loss-making monuments to their vanity abound.

A race to construct flashy public buildings by cutting-edge architects, combined with a taste for under-used infrastructure projects, has helped push up debt and deficit. So, too, have regional broadcasters whose vast workforces can dwarf their puny audience shares.

On Friday the huge airport in Ciudad Real, 115 miles south of Madrid, shut after attempts to turn it into the capital's second airport failed. Its runways are now closed to the handful of private jets that brought wealthy hunting parties, some including British royals, to kill deer in the region's overstocked private estates.

Ciudad Real is in the central Castilla-La Mancha region, the worst regional offender last year with a deficit that grew to 7.3% of regional share of GDP. The local savings bank, partly controlled by politicians, had to be rescued by taxpayers after it lent too much to property developers and bankrupt projects – such as the airport.

In Madrid on Friday Brussels inspectors were seeking answers to how Spain thinks it can manage to meet its national deficit target of 5.3% of GDP this year. Many economists consider the task impossible, though Rajoy insists his government will make it.

The inspectors were expected to demand proof that Rajoy's government can avoid the pitfalls of last year.

The prime minister has this month presented a budget with €27bn of tax rises and spending cuts in the central government budget, but the key to meeting targets lies in the regions. Last year they failed to cut any of the €17bn they were asked to find. This year they have been set a savings target of €15bn.

The socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, which lost elections in November, had claimed until the end that the regions were under control. The finance minister Elena Salgado even claimed the regions had produced a budget surplus during the third quarter.

But Spain was off track. It had promised its national deficit would drop from 9.5% of GDP to 6%, but turned in an 8.5% deficit that made it the laughing stock of austerity Europe – and left Rajoy's new government having to clean up the mess, which also includes 24% unemployment and a recession that will shrink the economy by 1.7%.

The regions provide the key amenities of the welfare state, such as health and education, so regional austerity means cuts to basic services. Protests have been loudest and, on occasions violent, in regions that managed some deficit reduction last year, such as Catalonia and Murcia.

Spooked by market pressure, Rajoy last week announced a further €10bn in health and education "savings", which will be implemented by the regions. On Thursday, the government passed a law that allows it to take control of the finances of regions that fail to stick to the austerity plans .

Rajoy, however, may find it politically inopportune to take control of three of the four regions that account for most of the deficit headache.

They include Valencia and Castilla-La Mancha, which – like most of the regions – are run by his party, and Catalonia, where any central government intervention would inflame nationalist sentiment.

He may, however, enjoy taking control of the finances of Andalucía, which is run by the opposition socialists. Rajoy's party failed to win elections for the region's parliament in March.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012 ... sh-regions

[gorgo]

Como o tópico é sobre a Espanha, vejamos:

O IVA pode subir 6 pontos percentuais, para 23%.
Os impostos sobre combustíveis ainda têm muita folga para estarem como Portugal e mais se igual à França.

Os ordenados mais elevados da função pública, governo central e regioões ainda têm muito para reduzir.

A poupança Espanhola estará nos 20%, embora sejam mais consumidores do que nós. O rácio de dívida pública é dos mais baixos da Europa, cerca de 85%. Nós estamos em 110%.

Só agora estão a acordar e a gerir o ciclo politico.

Ainda lhes falta bastante para estarem como nós, emboram não possam dormir descansados a partir de agora.
O PSOE andou no último ano a tratar das eleições, mas de nada serviu. O Povo gosta de viver acima das suas possibilidades. Este Rubalcaba não estará fora da realidade? Aquela ministra dos militares era bem mais interessante!

Para nós era positivo a subida do IVA e respetivo ISP.

[BearManBull]

1-
Acabar com automatismos totais em fábricas, obrigar a um rácio homem/produto produzido (para criar emprego e massa monetária circulante)

não existem automatismos totais, excepto talvez na industria química, e a razão de não existirem é simples "you can choose any colour you want as long as it is black" Henry Ford. Maior automação < flexibilidade.

Queria ver se não fosse a automação como é que se podia competir com a China. Os produtos produzidos no ocidente iam ser bem mais caros.

Estamos no século XXI grande parte do emprego está alocado nos serviços e construção civil, este sim o verdadeiro calvário do desemprego.

E depois essa questão de que a tecnologia destroi empregos é completamente errada por cada profissão que desaparece aparecem umas novas 10. Basta olhar-se para a área das TI. Ainda no ano 2000 quem trabalhava neste sector ganhava pequenas fortunas e eram poucos hoje em dia cada vez à mais informáticos (basta ver a Índia) e cada vez há mais procura mas com os ordenados a descer. Uma coisa é certa é um sector com mais peso do que o de manufactura que há uma década atrás mal existia.

[artista_]

Dentro de cada português há sempre um ditador, um Salazar!

Não sabia que também tinhas um dentro de ti!

[Quico]

Dentro de cada português há sempre um ditador, um Salazar!

[Pata-Hari]

Vamos mandar o ferradura para o século XVIII. Seria um homen feliz. Sem net mas feliz.

[ferradura]

Só há 2 soluções para o mundo ocidental:

1-Criar uma guerra mundial de modo a matar milhoes e detruir tudo, como na 2ª guerra (mas como há mais coisas e mais gente, terá de ser mais mortifera)

OU

1-
Acabar com automatismos totais em fábricas, obrigar a um rácio homem/produto produzido (para criar emprego e massa monetária circulante)

-Proibir acumulações de fortunas colossais superiores a um determinado valor (penso que 100 milhoes de euros deveria ser o máximo)

-Nacionalzar alguns sectores (energia)

-Limitar o consumo da mesma, e investir fortemente da eficiencia energética.

[MERCW125]

Qual é a duvida, e para a Espanha agora já existe dinheiro ou seja anossa economia com depende muito de Espanha nem daqui a 5 anos voltará a crescer o que quer que seja, a receita está ERRADA, simplesmente, ouçam a DILMA no Brasil senhores custa muito??

[pisão]

Artigo interessante que põe a nu as fragilidades de Nuestros Hermanos.

Segurem-se bem que isto vai começar a tremer muito ali ao lado, infelizmente.

Spain: The Ultimate Doomsday Presentation

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/07/2012 13:55 -0400

Since we have grown tired of variations on the theme of "The Pain in ...." (having been guilty of encouraging it ourselves), we will spare readers this triteness, and instead summarize the attached must read slidedeck from Carmel Asset Management as the ultimate Spanish doomsday presentation. Naive and/or idealistic Spanish readers are advised to resume sticking their heads in the sand, and to stay as far away as possible from the attached 54 pages, which prove without any doubt why not only was Greece the appetizer (have your UK law:non-UK Law divergence trade on yet?) but why things in Europe are about to get far, far worse, as the Hurricane shifts to its next preferred location, somewhere above and just south of the Pyrenees.

In summary, here are Carmel's five reasons why Spain's problems are worse than the market anticipates:

1. Spain’s national debt is 50% greater than the headline numbers

Spain’s debt-to-GDP balloons from 60% to 90% of GDP with regional and other debts

2. Spain’s housing prices will fall by an additional 35%

Spain built one house for every additional person added to the population during the past two decades; the fall will decrease GDP by ~2% each of the next two years

3. Spain has “zombie” banks with massive loans to developers and to homeowners

Banks have not begun to realize losses and are vastly undercapitalized

4. Spain’s economy has not stabilized and will continue to deteriorate

Spain has the highest unemployment in the developed world, one of the highest overall debt loads, and the most uncompetitive labor market in Europe

5. The EU will not have the firepower or political will to bail out Spain

Rescue fund headline numbers are misleading and count capital that is not yet committed

And here are the problems that will manifest themselves over the next 12 months:

Spain’s true debt burden will pass the 90% “tipping point” identified by Rogoff and Reinhart
Housing prices will fall further and faster than anticipated (consensus is 15%; CAM estimate is 35%)
Banks underestimate the residential real estate loan defaults (consensus estimate is 2.8% vs. CAM estimate of 11%)
Expected housing price depreciation and loan defaults will deepen Spain’s recession (additional 2% contraction in 2012 and 2013)
Spain will need to refinance €186.1 Billion in 2012 alone

End result: surging CDS and/or plunging bond prices, if faith in the sovereign CDS market continues to be at rock bottom lows courtesy of ISDA nearly blowing its own head off.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-ult ... esentation