Semana decisiva para acordo de tarifas. EUA esperam dias “atarefados”

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Everything Must Go!"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
6/23/2011 11:17 AM EDT


"They've got to sell something!

Put yourself in the shoes of all of the hedge funds that used borrowed money to buy oil. Think about all of the non-consumers that took it as a given that oil is inexorably going higher. What do they do? They have to blow out of everything. Think of the hedge funds that are facing liquidations as it is the end of the quarter. That's very big and they, too, have to sell everything.

What is "everything"? It tends to be stocks, as we saw with hedge funds that went wild in 2008.

Sometimes the structural really rules. The structural forces everything to go down. Sometimes the structural trumps all of this risk-on/risk-off stuff that all of these glib commentators are always talking about because, clearly, they have never faced liquidations.

Liquidations might not be done in a day, but it is pretty darned clear that there are winners and losers from oil being down. Because of liquidations they will all be down. I like to think of earnings as a driver. I like to ask, "Will this event raise or lower earnings per share for companies?" That's because earnings and earnings growth drive stocks in the long term.

Now, here are things I don't care about:


1. How oil goes down, margin vs. supply. I don't mind this way of doing it because what mattered is to trigger the non-consumers into panicking and releasing their oil.

2. Claims that this is a desperate measure, something the Republicans are saying. I mean, hello? What the heck is political about lowering gasoline prices? It's in the national interest for heaven's sake.
3. That it came right after Bernanke's downbeat talk. So what? It also comes at a time when China and India and Brazil are tightening.

I know there are many issues swirling around today. But while the hedge funds are liquidating, the real consumers of oil are winning. Let the hedge funds do their damage. I can only tell you that we had one of the largest cash positions ever for Action Alerts Plus and we are buying, not selling.

My late friend Mark Haines always said buy when it is ten-to-one sell-to-buy. We have that right now. Mark, I am thinking of you and obeying your teachings. "

(in www.realmoney.com)