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Cramer: "Margin Matters"

Espaço dedicado a todo o tipo de troca de impressões sobre os mercados financeiros e ao que possa condicionar o desempenho dos mesmos.

por Elias » 10/5/2011 15:55

AutoMech Escreveu:Neste momento ando dividido em termos de opinião. Se por um lado é essencial que as margens assegurem a solvabilidade do mercado, por outro espero que não haja a tentação de manipular as margens dos vários activos com outros intuitos, que não apenas o da solvabilidade...


Camarada AutoMech,

Parece que o camarada se esqueceu que andamos todos ao mesmo :mrgreen:
 
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por Automech » 10/5/2011 15:54

Neste momento ando dividido em termos de opinião. Se por um lado é essencial que as margens assegurem a solvabilidade do mercado, por outro espero que não haja a tentação de manipular as margens dos vários activos com outros intuitos, que não apenas o da solvabilidade...
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Cramer: "Margin Matters"

por Ulisses Pereira » 10/5/2011 14:29

"Margin Matters"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/10/2011 6:37 AM EDT


"When the CME (CME - commentary - Trade Now) broke the back of the silver market with increasing margin requirements, it was huge news. Of course, it took a virtual doubling in the requirements to shoot that elephant, and the beast stirred in yesterday's session. Nevertheless the CME's move certainly cooled the frenzy.

Can margin requirements do the same for oil? Looks like the CME wants to find out after the harrowing session last week that saw oil plummet $10 in a couple of hours. That's why I think last night's 25% increase in margin for buying in the oil complex could have impact.

It took at 84% increase in margin requirements to stop silver in its tracks, causing a 27% plunge in the precious metal. We are nowhere near that, with these boosts in margin. However, the exchange didn't take up the margin rates 84% in one fell swoop, so I expect more increases if the zaniness continues.

The weird thing is that you can hardly find a word about these increases last night. No coverage to speak of at all. It started just like that with silver too, as if people didn't think it would matter -- but it mattered plenty.

The reason why it could matter greatly here, too, has to do with the way oil is consumed. There's not much oil that isn't used. So at any given moment the margin price can be tilted by keeping some of the market through speculative tie-ups. You need those tie-ups to cost more to discourage them but, of course, the exchange doesn't feel like that's its job.

But oil is not silver. It is not something we can just say, "You know what, I will just pump salad dressing into my car today." So these changes could mean some downward bias even though they are not big requirement lifts and the market is allegedly very deep. I write "allegedly" because no market that falls as quickly as this one did last week can possibly be deep. That's just nonsensical no matter how many graybeards and commodity apologists/professors tell us otherwise.

No matter, the requirement boost, while played down in the media, is a big deal. And if the dollar keeps getting stronger, I expect a retest for lower oil quickly ... and I bet, if we hear talk of more margin boosts, it won't hold. "

(in www.realmoney.com)
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Ulisses Pereira

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