Tarifas só em agosto podem salvar prendas de Natal

[Pata-Hari]

Interessante, sem dúvida. Obrigada.

[LTCM]

Price momentum in gold has come to a standstill. With therisk for a larger price pullback, speculative accounts havestarted to scale back their long positions in gold futures.•Though price dips close to the 200-day moving average lookto be in the cards, we believe these levels should be used tobuild up new long positions.•We stick to our USD 1,650/oz price target for the next 12months on inflation and currency uncertainty.

Gold is not yet at a turning point
The price chart of gold does not reveal a price-supportive outlookin the short run. From a technical perspective, the metal is likelyto head into a consolidation. In the coming days, the gold price islikely to test the 200-day moving average, which implies price dipstoward USD 1,285/oz.

Hawkish comments by ECB President Trichet and reduced uncer-tainty over peripheral Europe's sovereign debt problems as well asa lack of price momentum triggered some sizable closing of longpositions in gold futures. The speculative community in the US hasscaled back its long exposure by 10 million ounces since peak levelsin December 2010. While more positions could be squared-off inthe short run, we believe the structural story for higher gold pricesremains intact.Inflation is gearing up, especially in emerging countries. Since cen-tral banks around the world are still providing ample liquidity, infla-tion pressure is likely to remain high. The outlook that monetarypolicy in key economies will turn less accommodative should notderail the broader uptrend.

Central banks are likely to keep real in-terest rates in negative territory for the remainder of the year. More-over, debt problems in the developed world have yet to be tackledseriously, including ballooning fiscal deficits in the US and the risk ofbroad USD weakness in real terms. Thus, financial demand shouldremain high in search of wealth preservation

Dominic Schnider, analyst, UBS AG