Financial crisis fears grow in Ireland, Portugal
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ferreira10 Escreveu:E lá se vai, Elias, o possível efeito positivo sobre o CAC, da demissão do governo Francês.
É verdade, até porque esta demissão (ou pelo menos uma remodelação) já era mais ou menos esperada, ao passo que a demissão do Oskar Lafontaine a que fiz referência neste post apanhou os mercados de surpresa.
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Elias Escreveu:Portugal é hoje a terceira peça do dominó que começou a tombar na Grécia. É o dominó GIPSI (foneticamente semelhante a "gipsy", ou cigano), acrónimo que estabelece a ordem da queda: primeiro a Grécia, depois a Irlanda, Portugal, Espanha ("Spain") e em último a Itália. Eis-nos emparedados entre o provável pedido de ajuda da Irlanda e o impossível SOS da Espanha.
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php ... &id=453439
Discordo com o artigo, quando a Grécia pediu ajuda, quem estava na fila para ser o proximo (na opinião da CS) era Portugal, basta ver as yields da epoca, Portugal estava em 2º a seguir à Grécia e a Irlanda em 3º. Actualmente a Irlanda já nos ultrapassou e já nos colocam para irmos a seguir, mas discordo. Se os politicos portugueses tiverem juizo, aprovarem um bom orçamento (na optica da redução da despesa e do defice) não necessitaremos de pedir ajuda.
"Só duas coisas são infinitas, o universo e a estupidez humana. Mas no que respeita ao universo ainda não tenho a certeza" Einstein
“Com os actuais meios de acesso à informação, a ignorância não é uma fatalidade, mas uma escolha pessoal" Eu
“Com os actuais meios de acesso à informação, a ignorância não é uma fatalidade, mas uma escolha pessoal" Eu
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Elias Escreveu:Portugal é hoje a terceira peça do dominó que começou a tombar na Grécia. É o dominó GIPSI (foneticamente semelhante a "gipsy", ou cigano), acrónimo que estabelece a ordem da queda: primeiro a Grécia, depois a Irlanda, Portugal, Espanha ("Spain") e em último a Itália. Eis-nos emparedados entre o provável pedido de ajuda da Irlanda e o impossível SOS da Espanha.
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php ... &id=453439
Exacto! Isto..., remete-nos para este oportuno artigo do PSG.
Tinha uma entrada programada para segunda no BCP.Aproveitar o momento técnico.Mas caso se confirme, antes de segunda, uma comunicação que vá no sentido do pedido de ajuda da Irlanda, mais vale estar quieto.Os bancos são aqueles que mais sofrem nestas situações.
E lá se vai, Elias, o possível efeito positivo sobre o CAC, da demissão do governo Francês.
Mas lá está, na bolsa tudo é possível; e até pode ser tudo ao contrario daquilo que estou para aqui a dizer.
“Successful trading is really very simple. Buy a stock at the right time and sell it at
the right time.”«Mel Raiman»
the right time.”«Mel Raiman»
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Portugal é hoje a terceira peça do dominó que começou a tombar na Grécia. É o dominó GIPSI (foneticamente semelhante a "gipsy", ou cigano), acrónimo que estabelece a ordem da queda: primeiro a Grécia, depois a Irlanda, Portugal, Espanha ("Spain") e em último a Itália. Eis-nos emparedados entre o provável pedido de ajuda da Irlanda e o impossível SOS da Espanha.
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php ... &id=453439
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php ... &id=453439
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Esta noticia a juntar aquela que por aqui deixo em forma de link, só vêm piorar as coisas.Ou é brincadeira dos jornais Ingleses (e não me admiraria nada; não obstante ser de mau gosto) ou, a ser verdade, se a Irlanda "cair" deixa Portugal desprotegido.
E a seguir temos o gigante que alguns dizem ser muito grande para necessitar de ajuda.Falo da Espanha.Os ministros das Finanças do Euro grupo que tenham juízo, e clarifiquem com veemência a situação.
Noticia em questão:
«Europa pressiona Irlanda a pedir ajuda
13 Novembro 2010 | 23:19
Nuno Carregueiro - nc@negocios.pt
As notícias sobre o pedido de ajuda da Irlanda ao fundo de emergência da União Europeia intensificaram-se hoje, com a imprensa internacional a dar conta que os ministros europeus estarão a pressionar Dublin a solicitar ajuda. O FMI diz que está pronto, mas confia que não será necessário.(...)
Continuação da noticia neste link:
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php ... &id=453611
E a seguir temos o gigante que alguns dizem ser muito grande para necessitar de ajuda.Falo da Espanha.Os ministros das Finanças do Euro grupo que tenham juízo, e clarifiquem com veemência a situação.
Noticia em questão:
«Europa pressiona Irlanda a pedir ajuda
13 Novembro 2010 | 23:19
Nuno Carregueiro - nc@negocios.pt
As notícias sobre o pedido de ajuda da Irlanda ao fundo de emergência da União Europeia intensificaram-se hoje, com a imprensa internacional a dar conta que os ministros europeus estarão a pressionar Dublin a solicitar ajuda. O FMI diz que está pronto, mas confia que não será necessário.(...)
Continuação da noticia neste link:
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php ... &id=453611
“Successful trading is really very simple. Buy a stock at the right time and sell it at
the right time.”«Mel Raiman»
the right time.”«Mel Raiman»
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- Mensagens: 1499
- Registado: 29/11/2007 3:18
Financial crisis fears grow in Ireland, Portugal
LONDON - European officials on Friday scrambled to ease a brewing market panic over financial troubles in Ireland, Portugal and Spain, as speculation mounted that one or more of those nations may be forced to follow in the footsteps of nearly bankrupt Greece and ask for an international bailout.
The bonds of hard-hit Ireland in particular have taken a severe beating in recent days on the back of fears that its financial woes are reaching critical levels. But investors have especially moved to dump bonds on the heels of a German-backed plan that might see bond-holders take a loss if Ireland, or any other troubled nation in the European Union, is forced to ask for aid as Greece did last spring.
The idea, German officials argue, is that investors should share the burden if countries that have over-borrowed and overspent now need financial rescues from their bigger, wealthier neighbors.
That threat - coupled with the deteriorating financial and political situation in Ireland in particular - is raising a red flag in Europe, with investors this week moving to dump Irish and Portuguese bonds. Both nations are struggling to reignite their economies while at the same time attempting to slash runaway government spending.
Fears are additionally driving up borrowing rates for larger economies such as Spain, which is also facing a massive budget deficit, as well as Italy, the third-largest economy among the 16 nations that share the euro as a currency, as well as one of the most heavily indebted.
But in a statement issued at the G-20 summit of major industrial powers in Seoul, European financial chiefs sought to clarify the still-fluid plan for any potential bailout. They said Friday that the policy may only involve a voluntary commitment by investors to take some kind of loss, rather than a requirement to do so. In addition, the policy wouldn't come into effect until 2013, meaning current bondholders would not be affected.
That was enough to ease some of the market concerns, with bond pressure easing somewhat Friday on Ireland and other nations.
"Whatever the debate within the euro area about the future [bailouts] and the potential private sector involvement . . . we are clear that this does not apply to any outstanding debt and any program under current instruments," the finance ministers of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Britain said in the statement.
Nevertheless, Irish and Portuguese bonds are now so hard-hit, analysts say, that markets appear to be pricing a default on at least some of their obligations to investors.
Such a move could undermine the value of the euro, which had fallen in recent days before rebounding Friday, and cause a new round of political wrangling within the European Union about whether some of its more financially troubled members should be forced to abandon the euro and readopt their own national currencies.
It happens as new figures released Friday showed economic growth cooling across the eurozone, rising only 0.4 percent in the second quarter, or modestly lower than analysts had predicted.
One problem facing the region, analyst say, is that solutions being tried by nations such as Ireland to right their finances don't appear to be working.
Facing a devastating recession and real estate bust in the wake of the global financial crisis, Ireland has sought to rein in government spending by pushing through harsh budget cuts.
But in recent months, the government has also been forced to spend billions more to control a roiling banking crisis, driving up the Irish budget deficit to unsustainable levels equal to 32 percent of the national economy.
Although the Irish government is seeking to reduce spending even more with a new round of draconian cuts set for approval in parliament next month, the reduction in government spending is contributing to a still-harsh economic downtown there that is only making its financial situation worse.
As a result, some analysts now think Ireland may have no choice but to request a bailout from the European Union, and, possibly, the International Monetary Fund - speculation that Irish officials again strongly denied Friday.
"I think we're likely to see more turbulence in the weeks ahead, especially as they try to approve the new Irish budget in December," said Gavan Nolan, research analyst at London-based Markit Group. "The market is getting mixed messages from the European Union on how they are going to handle the problem. There needs to be more clarity."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/12/AR2010111206488.html
The bonds of hard-hit Ireland in particular have taken a severe beating in recent days on the back of fears that its financial woes are reaching critical levels. But investors have especially moved to dump bonds on the heels of a German-backed plan that might see bond-holders take a loss if Ireland, or any other troubled nation in the European Union, is forced to ask for aid as Greece did last spring.
The idea, German officials argue, is that investors should share the burden if countries that have over-borrowed and overspent now need financial rescues from their bigger, wealthier neighbors.
That threat - coupled with the deteriorating financial and political situation in Ireland in particular - is raising a red flag in Europe, with investors this week moving to dump Irish and Portuguese bonds. Both nations are struggling to reignite their economies while at the same time attempting to slash runaway government spending.
Fears are additionally driving up borrowing rates for larger economies such as Spain, which is also facing a massive budget deficit, as well as Italy, the third-largest economy among the 16 nations that share the euro as a currency, as well as one of the most heavily indebted.
But in a statement issued at the G-20 summit of major industrial powers in Seoul, European financial chiefs sought to clarify the still-fluid plan for any potential bailout. They said Friday that the policy may only involve a voluntary commitment by investors to take some kind of loss, rather than a requirement to do so. In addition, the policy wouldn't come into effect until 2013, meaning current bondholders would not be affected.
That was enough to ease some of the market concerns, with bond pressure easing somewhat Friday on Ireland and other nations.
"Whatever the debate within the euro area about the future [bailouts] and the potential private sector involvement . . . we are clear that this does not apply to any outstanding debt and any program under current instruments," the finance ministers of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Britain said in the statement.
Nevertheless, Irish and Portuguese bonds are now so hard-hit, analysts say, that markets appear to be pricing a default on at least some of their obligations to investors.
Such a move could undermine the value of the euro, which had fallen in recent days before rebounding Friday, and cause a new round of political wrangling within the European Union about whether some of its more financially troubled members should be forced to abandon the euro and readopt their own national currencies.
It happens as new figures released Friday showed economic growth cooling across the eurozone, rising only 0.4 percent in the second quarter, or modestly lower than analysts had predicted.
One problem facing the region, analyst say, is that solutions being tried by nations such as Ireland to right their finances don't appear to be working.
Facing a devastating recession and real estate bust in the wake of the global financial crisis, Ireland has sought to rein in government spending by pushing through harsh budget cuts.
But in recent months, the government has also been forced to spend billions more to control a roiling banking crisis, driving up the Irish budget deficit to unsustainable levels equal to 32 percent of the national economy.
Although the Irish government is seeking to reduce spending even more with a new round of draconian cuts set for approval in parliament next month, the reduction in government spending is contributing to a still-harsh economic downtown there that is only making its financial situation worse.
As a result, some analysts now think Ireland may have no choice but to request a bailout from the European Union, and, possibly, the International Monetary Fund - speculation that Irish officials again strongly denied Friday.
"I think we're likely to see more turbulence in the weeks ahead, especially as they try to approve the new Irish budget in December," said Gavan Nolan, research analyst at London-based Markit Group. "The market is getting mixed messages from the European Union on how they are going to handle the problem. There needs to be more clarity."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/12/AR2010111206488.html
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