Cramer: "Better to Watch China's Next Move"
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O maior problema com a China a meu ver é que um dia eles vão deixar de poder controlar a moeda. Ao que parece a inflação por aqueles lados tem disparado o que implica que também os preços das matérias primas e custos com trabalhadores vão ter que aumentar.
Isto é tudo especulação, mas a verdade é que pode-se estar a criar uma bolha que nem a do Japão. Está tudo a investir na China como se não houvesse mais amanhã. Quero ver como vai ser com todas aquelas fábricas que correram para a China para produzir mais barato. Não fosse sermos todos afectados que eu até dizia "bem feito".
BTW: Nunca comprei um produto dos chineses que funcionasse por mais de 1 semana
Isto é tudo especulação, mas a verdade é que pode-se estar a criar uma bolha que nem a do Japão. Está tudo a investir na China como se não houvesse mais amanhã. Quero ver como vai ser com todas aquelas fábricas que correram para a China para produzir mais barato. Não fosse sermos todos afectados que eu até dizia "bem feito".
BTW: Nunca comprei um produto dos chineses que funcionasse por mais de 1 semana
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Cramer: "Better to Watch China's Next Move"
Cramer que tem estado muito "Bullish" sob a premissa de "Don`t fight the Fed", hoje esfria esse optimismo com o "Don`t fight the Chinese".
Uma das coisas interessantes do artigo é quando ele refere que a medida ainda não foi tomada por isso esse é o grande problema. Em Bolsa mais do que os momentos, normalmente os períodos mais complicados (ou mais eufóricos) são antes desses momentos.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
"Better to Watch China's Next Move"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
11/12/2010 6:13 AM EST
"A commodities-driven market can only take us so far. That's what we learned in 2008 and that's what it looks like we are going to learn today.
While commodity costs may be less than 10% of our cost or production, it's pretty obvious that for a growth country like China these days of dizzying heights of oil and copper and cotton can't be sustained.
In 2008 we learned two things: 1) you should be thrilled when commodities go up because it means you aren't going into or having too severe a contraction, and 2) you should fear commodities going up because the Chinese know they are driving commodity costs and they have enough of a command economy that they aren't going to tolerate endless price hikes.
Today's one of those days when we are squarely in the worry-about-No. 2, forget-No. 1-camp.
Given that the Chinese are only signaling that they will do something -- they haven't done it yet -- means that we will have multiple sessions of worry about their next move.
We have raised a lot of cash for ActionAlertsPlus.com in part to lock up some gains for the years and in part because we have had to give up on Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Trade Now).
I would normally be eager to put some of that right back in to today's weakness. But what we learned in 2008 -- that there has to be a tilt up in commodities, not a ramp up if you don't want to fight the Chinese -- makes me much less eager to take advantage of a sloppy day.
Better to watch. The only thing dumber than fighting the Fed is to fight the Chinese.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Uma das coisas interessantes do artigo é quando ele refere que a medida ainda não foi tomada por isso esse é o grande problema. Em Bolsa mais do que os momentos, normalmente os períodos mais complicados (ou mais eufóricos) são antes desses momentos.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
"Better to Watch China's Next Move"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
11/12/2010 6:13 AM EST
"A commodities-driven market can only take us so far. That's what we learned in 2008 and that's what it looks like we are going to learn today.
While commodity costs may be less than 10% of our cost or production, it's pretty obvious that for a growth country like China these days of dizzying heights of oil and copper and cotton can't be sustained.
In 2008 we learned two things: 1) you should be thrilled when commodities go up because it means you aren't going into or having too severe a contraction, and 2) you should fear commodities going up because the Chinese know they are driving commodity costs and they have enough of a command economy that they aren't going to tolerate endless price hikes.
Today's one of those days when we are squarely in the worry-about-No. 2, forget-No. 1-camp.
Given that the Chinese are only signaling that they will do something -- they haven't done it yet -- means that we will have multiple sessions of worry about their next move.
We have raised a lot of cash for ActionAlertsPlus.com in part to lock up some gains for the years and in part because we have had to give up on Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Trade Now).
I would normally be eager to put some of that right back in to today's weakness. But what we learned in 2008 -- that there has to be a tilt up in commodities, not a ramp up if you don't want to fight the Chinese -- makes me much less eager to take advantage of a sloppy day.
Better to watch. The only thing dumber than fighting the Fed is to fight the Chinese.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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