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Traders Aren't Economists, They're Gamblers

Espaço dedicado a todo o tipo de troca de impressões sobre os mercados financeiros e ao que possa condicionar o desempenho dos mesmos.

por migluso » 1/8/2010 21:51

Em resposta a estas ideias, nada melhor que o vídeo seguinte:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNbYdbf3 ... re=related

ou então, já que o senhor pensa que os economistas são os detentores do conhecimento e da verdade:

“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”
F A Hayek
The Fatal Conceit
"In a losing game such as trading, we shall start against the majority and assume we are wrong until proven correct!" - Phantom of the Pits
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Traders Aren't Economists, They're Gamblers

por atomez » 1/8/2010 20:40

Em plena Silly Season aqui vai um artigo provocador, ou apenas irónico, para meditar entre duas idas à piscina.


O que ele diz não é novidade nenhuma, mas no "imaginário colectivo" as coisas não funcionam assim.

No fundo é o "Espírito do Capitalismo", ou de como milhões de intervenientes interagindo através de um mercado livre, cada um deles defendendo o seu interesse individual, põem em movimento um sistema que beneficia todos. Pelo menos a maior parte das vezes. A tal "mão invisível" de Adam Smith.

Pelo menos historicamente apresenta muito melhores resultados que um qulquer sistema controlado centralmente por políticos e/ou economistas por mais "Thoughtful Study" que façam...


Em video:

<embed src="http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/cbsnews_player_embed.swf" scale="noscale" salign="lt" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" background="#333333" width="425" height="279" allowFullScreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" FlashVars="si=254&uvpc=http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/uvp_cbsnews.xml&contentType=videoId&contentValue=50091045&ccEnabled=false&hdEnabled=false&fsEnabled=true&shareEnabled=false&dlEnabled=false&subEnabled=false&playlistDisplay=none&playlistType=none&playerWidth=425&playerHeight=239&vidWidth=425&vidHeight=239&autoplay=false&bbuttonDisplay=none&playOverlayText=PLAY%20CBS%20NEWS%20VIDEO&refreshMpuEnabled=true&shareUrl=http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6734041n&tag=related;photovideo&adEngine=dart&adCallTemplate=http%3A//www.cbs.com/thunder/ad.doubleclick.net/adx/request.php%3F/can/news/%7B%25videoNode%7D%3Bsite%3Dnews%3Bshow%3D%7B%25videoParentNode%7D%3B%7B%25videoFeatPath%7Dpartner%3Dnews%3Blvid%3D%7B%25videoId%7D%3Boutlet%3DCBS+Production%3BnoAd%3D%7B%25videoNoAd%7D%3Btype%3Dros%3Bformat%3DFLV%3Bpos%3D%7B%25posDart%7D%3Bsz%3D320x240%3Bord%3D%7B%25random%7D%3B&adPreroll=true&adPrerollType=PreContent&adPrerollValue=1" />


Em prosa:

Traders Aren't Economists, They're Gamblers

Ben Stein Says Real Power of Markets Comes Not From Thoughtful Study of Economics but From Calling Another Trader's Bluff

A word of warning: There are serious troublemakers out there and they are the real powers in the universe today.

They are called "traders."

They lurk in board rooms and offices and homes and sometimes nowadays, they are not even human. They lurk in software programs and infinitely small circuits on infinitely small chips.

Every day, they wake up or get switched on, trying to figure out, a way to jam my gears.

Now, to be sure, probably they are not actually thinking about Ben Stein, my own old self. But they are thinking about how to trade stocks or bonds or commodities or options or some darned thing that will move the markets and make money for them.

They are not economists. They don't sell millions of shares every few seconds because they did a study of the world's economies and came out with careful, measured results.

No, no: They are gamblers. They gamble on whether the other traders will trade in the same direction they trade, and if they do, and if the trend gains momentum and "breadth," as they say, they go along with the crowd until the crowd shouts "switch," and then they switch to doing the other thing.

They can turn markets upside down with their massive money power and their trading speed.

When they do, when they move the markets on some trivial bit of news like something meaningless that happened in Athens or Lisbon, they scare the wits out of governments and legislatures and central bankers, who think the traders might actually know something (even though they rarely do).

They make us think there is an oil shortage. They make us think the world is about to go broke. It doesn't matter if it's true; the traders can make us think it's true, and make money.

And their power extends into my own intestines. When they are in a mood to move the market up a lot, I feel great. When they are in a mood to move the market down a lot, I feel terrified, and tell my wife we have to eat leftovers that night and every night from now on, even though I know it will all change in a day or two or in a year or a decade.

They have their clever little hands wrapped around my guts, and the world's guts. And they're just guys and gals who put on their pants one leg at a time. But, wow, do they have power! And they answer to no one but the other traders trading against them.

It is terrifying. All hail the almighty power: Money and lots of it.
As pessoas são tão ingénuas e tão agarradas aos seus interesses imediatos que um vigarista hábil consegue sempre que um grande número delas se deixe enganar.
Niccolò Machiavelli
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