"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[LuisFTAntunes]

James T. Areddy, Sky Canaves e Shai Oster
The Wall Street Journal, de Xangai e Pequim

As empresas estrangeiras que operam na China começaram a tomar medidas para se protegerem agora que a prisão formal de quatro empregados da mineradora Rio Tinto reavivou questões sobre os limites do comportamento comercial aceitável no país, e as punições por sair da linha.

O australiano Stern Hu e três cidadãos chineses, todos membros da equipe de venda da mineradora anglo-australiana, foram formalmente presos na terça-feira por suspeita de corrupção e roubo de segredos comerciais, depois de mais de cinco semanas em detenção.

A China parece ter recuado das acusações de que os quatro roubaram segredos de Estado, uma ofensa criminal mais grave que pode implicar a pena de morte.

Mas permanece o nervosismo entre algumas empresas estrangeiras sobre o que pode causar-lhes apuros parecidos, segundo advogados e executivos baseados na China.

Uma advogada de um escritório de advocacia internacional disse que foi solicitada a preparar um relatório para uma empresa europeia sobre a probabilidade de seus executivos enfrentarem acusações ligadas à segurança do Estado ao fazer negócios na China. Algumas empresas estrangeiras, segundo outros advogados, começaram a apagar dados potencialmente delicados de seus computadores.

As empresas precisam assegurar que os empregados na China sejam "cuidadosos sobre que tipos de informação e dados solicitam, recebem ou usam no curso de seu trabalho e especialmente informação de agências governamentais e quase-agências como as empresas estatais", disse James Zimmerman, um sócio em Pequim do escritório de advocacia Squire Sanders & Dempsey. "Este caso aumentou o nível de incerteza de operar na China", afirmou.

[LTCM]

Fundos de emergentes têm saque de US$ 1,87 bilhão; Brasil também perde

Publicada em Valor Online

SÃO PAULO - A quarta semana de junho marcou o fim de uma corrida iniciada em meados de março que tinha como destino os mercados emergentes e que também favoreceu os Fundos de Ações do Brasil. Na semana encerrada dia 24, as carteiras dedicadas ao país perderam mais de US$ 350 milhões, pondo fim a uma sequência de 15 semanas consecutivas de captação. Os saques não foram exclusividade dos fundos brasileiros. De acordo com dados compilados pela EPFR Global, todos os fundos emergentes acompanhados perderam US$ 1,87 bilhão na semana.

No entanto, a saída de recursos dos veículos com foco no Brasil não causa muita surpresa. Basta lembrar que o saldo de investimento estrangeiro calculado pela Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (Bovespa) estava em terreno negativo desde o começo do mês. Segundo os dados mais recentes, no acumulado de junho até o dia 23, o saldo de negociação direta do não residente estava negativo em R$ 3,18 bilhões.

As categorias Fundos de Ações da Ásia (ex-Japão) e Fundos de Ações da América Latina lideraram os saques, perdendo US$ 660 milhões e US$ 457 milhões, respectivamente.

Para a EPFR Global, os saques na Ásia e América Latina refletiram o questionamento dos agentes sobre onde e quando a demanda pelos produtos manufaturados do primeiro grupo, e pelas commodities do segundo, começará, de fato, a aumentar.

Por aqui, a avaliação mais disseminada é de realização de lucros, algo que pode ser visto com certa naturalidade depois de um rali de alta que durou três meses, e resultou em valorização superior a 50% em dólar para a bolsa brasileira.

Embora os países com foco em commodities tenham sofrido saques, a consultoria notou que os fundos Bric (Brasil, Rússia, Índia e China) sustentaram a tendência de atração de recursos.

Durante a semana, todos os fundos de ações acompanhados pela EPFR Global perderam US$ 4,12 bilhões, enquanto todos os fundos de renda fixa (ex-money market funds) ganharam US$ 1,94 bilhão.

(...)

[Pata-Hari]

A fonte é o http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/01/busin ... &st=Search

July 1, 2009
Some Economies Show Signs of Less Reliance on U.S.
By BETTINA WASSENER
HONG KONG — For a while, when the economic crisis was at its worst, it was a dirty word that only the most provocative of analysts dared to use. Now, the D-word — decoupling — is making a comeback, and nowhere more so than in Asia.

Put simply, the term refers to the theory that emerging markets — whether China or Chile — will become less dependent the United States as their economies become stronger and more sophisticated.

For much of last year, the theory held up. Many emerging economies had steered clear of investments that dragged down banking behemoths in the West, and saw nothing like the turmoil that began to engulf the United States and Europe in 2007. But then, last autumn, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers caused the financial system to convulse and consumer demand to shrivel, emerging economies around the world got caught in the downdraft, and the D-word became mud.

Now, the tables are turning, especially in Asia, where many emerging economies are showing signs of a stronger recovery than in the West. And economists here have begun to talk of the decoupling once again.

“Decoupling is happening for real,” the chief Asia-Pacific economist at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, Michael Buchanan, said in a recent interview.

To be sure, the once sizzling pace of Asian economic growth has slowed sharply as exports to and investments from outside the region slumped. Across Asia, millions of people have lost their jobs as business dropped off and companies cut costs and output. Asia is heavily dependent upon selling its products to consumers in the United States and Europe, and many executives still say a strong American economy is a prerequisite for a return to the boom of years past.

But for the past couple of months, data have revealed a growing divergence between Western economies and those in much of Asia, notably China and India.

The World Bank last week forecast that the economies of the countries that use the euro and the United States would contract 4.5 percent and 3 percent, respectively, this year — compared with 7.2 percent and 5.1 percent growth forecast for China and India. Forecasts from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that were also published last week backed up this general trend.

Major statistics for June, due Wednesday, are expected to show manufacturing activity in China and India are on the mend. By contrast, purchasing managers indexes for Europe and the United States are forecast to be merely less grim than before but still show contractions.

Why this diverging picture?

The crisis hit Asia much later. While the American economy began languishing in 2007, Asian economies were doing well until the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September. What followed was a rush of stimulus measures — rate cuts and government spending programs. In Asia’s case, these came soon after things soured for the region; in the United States, they came much later.

Moreover, developing Asian economies were in pretty good shape when the crisis struck. The last major crisis to hit the region — the financial turmoil of 1997-98 — forced governments in Asia to introduce overhauls that ultimately left them with lower debt levels, more resilient banking and regulatory systems and often large foreign exchange reserves.

Another crucial difference is that Asia, unlike the United States and Europe, has not had a banking crisis. Bank profits in Asia have plunged and some have had to raise extra capital but there have been no major collapses and no bailouts.

“The single most important thing to have happened in Asia is that there has not been a banking crisis,” said Andrew Freris, a regional strategist at BNP Paribas in Hong Kong. “Asia is coming though this crisis with its banking system intact. Yes, some banks may not be making profits — but it is cyclical and not systemic.”

The lack of banking disasters also has meant that, unlike in Europe and the United States, Asian governments have not had to spend cash to clean the balance sheets of faltering banks.

Add to that the fact that companies and households in Asia are typically not burdened with the kind of debt that is forcing Americans and Europeans to cut back consumption and investment plans.

Asians are generally big savers; those in developing nations have limited health care and pension systems to fall back on. So they put aside cash for retirement, sickness and their children’s education, rather than maxing out multiple credit cards.

Paul Schulte of Nomura said this difference was leading to a long-term shift. Western nations and consumers will struggle for years to pay down debt — and in some cases face higher taxes as governments try to rein in their swelling budget deficits. Consumers there, he said, will thus spend less.

In developing Asia, by contrast, incomes are expected to rise gradually and savings rates to fall as improving health and welfare systems make the region’s fast-growing population less determined to save.

Taken together, Mr. Schulte said, this means Asian consumers, as a whole, will become more important in global terms — another example of how the region will become less dependant on the West.

Similarly, companies in developing Asian nations tend to have fewer debts — partly because the region enjoyed several years of strong economic growth.

Low corporate and household debts mean governments in the region have had more firepower to pursue aggressive stimulus measures, said Jonathan Garner, head of emerging markets strategy at Morgan Stanley.

The Chinese stimulus package of 4 trillion renminbi yuan, or $585 billion, announced last November, has led to a boom in spending and is a major reason why economists are optimistic about China, and about much of the region as a whole.

Asia’s generally lower debt levels also mean there has been no credit crunch of the kind that has handicapped companies and consumers elsewhere.

“Asia does not have a credit crunch. It has excess liquidity,” Mr. Neumann of HSBC said. “The banking system is stuffed with liquidity.”

This is benefiting Asian asset markets — from stocks to property — and is leading to a gradual “financial decoupling” from the United States and Europe, Mr. Neumann said.

“For the past two decades, equities markets have been driven by Western risk capital, not Asian investors themselves,” he said. “Now, you’re finding that Asian money is increasingly driving the market.”

Analysts at Merrill Lynch agree. In a recent research note they said the Hong Kong stock market, for example, had performed much better than markets in the United States, and property prices in the city have risen, partly because of capital inflows from mainland China.

Of course, none of this means Asia has become completely independent from the rest of the world. Asia remains heavily reliant on exports for economic growth.

The result, despite increased “decoupling,” is that growth in Asia has slowed down, in some cases sharply.

The Indonesian economy, for example, is expected to grow 3.6 percent this year, the Asian Development Bank forecasts. This compares to more than 6 percent in 2008 and 2007.

The bank expects the Indian economy to grow to 5 percent this year, and the Chinese economy 7 percent — down from 7.1 percent and 9 percent, respectively, in 2008.

Nor has the effect been uniform. Developed Asian economies, like Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong, are much more tightly tied into the world economy and financial system. All three are in recessions.

“The United States has deep structural problems that are coming home to roost — Asia hasn’t got those, and that has been very, very important,” says Mr. Garner of Morgan Stanley.

“Emerging Asian nations went into recession last,” he says. Increasingly, they are looking like they will also to come out first — and strongest.”