Greve alargada a mais três setores e contratos a prazo a três anos

[Pijama]

Já que se trata deste multimilionário, quando sairá a actualização da revista Forbes para os homens mais rioos do mundo relativa a 2008?

Cumprimentos

[Açor3]

Homem mais rico do mundo também despede


03/03/2009


O multimilionário Warren Buffett, que registou os seus piores resultados de sempre em 2008, vai reduzir postos de trabalhos e encerrar fábricas, numa altura em que a recessão piora.

A Berkshire, holding que concentra os negócios do homem mais rico do mundo, reduziu o número de empregados na Clayton Homes em 16% no ano passado para 11.998. Já a Shaw Industries vai cortar 6,2% da sua força de trabalho, anunciou a empresa em comunicado citado pela Bloomberg.

Segundo a mesma fonte, “as empresas operacionais da Berkshire têm e vão continuar a reduzir custos para responder à actual situação económica, incluindo a redução de produção, a diminuição de despesas de capital, encerramento de fábricas e corte de empregos para compensar, em parte, as quedas na procura”.

A Berkshire junta-se, assim, a empresas como a General Motors e a Macy’s em despedir trabalhadores no contexto da pior crise financeira em sete décadas.

O presidente Barack Obama, que tem procurado aconselhar-se com Buffett sobre assuntos económicos, já disse que o plano de estímulos vai salvar ou criar 3,5 milhões de postos de trabalho, e a Reserva Federal (Fed) está a injectar liquidez nos mercados para reavivar o crédito e restabelecer o crescimento.

A taxa de desemprego nos EUA foi de 7,6% em Janeiro, a mais elevada desde 1992, anunciou o Departamento do Trabalho. Segundo economistas consultados pela agência noticiosa norte-americana, a taxa deverá aumentar para 7,9% em Fevereiro.

Para os especialistas “Buffett não pode ser a Segurança Social”. O multimilionário já tinha ontem dado sinais de que poderia tomar medidas já que considera que a economia vai estar “desorganizada” este ano e talvez por mais tempo, antes de recuperar da crise de crédito que causou a pior “queda livre” nunca antes por ele assistida no sistema financeiro.




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Banco BPI

[atomez]

Há cerca de três anos atrás, sabiam-se que ele tinha um número incrivel de put options a 5 anos para se proteger em caso de crash. Essas opções que estavam totalmente out of the money devem agora valer bastante. Será que ainda as mantém...?

Parece que sim

He specifically addresses the "equity put" contracts that have caused some concern among investors, revealing that Berkshire has "added modestly" to them.

The contracts, which insure against stock market declines over a period of many years, total $37.1 billion. They're written against the S&P 500, the U.K.'s FTSE 100, the Euro Stoxx 50 in Europe, and Japan's Nikkei 225.

Berkshire is only required to make any payments when the contracts expire. The first comes due in 2019 and the last in 2028. The mark-to-market, or 'paper', loss on the equity put contracts totals $5.1 billion.

[Pata-Hari]

Há cerca de três anos atrás, sabiam-se que ele tinha um número incrivel de put options a 5 anos para se proteger em caso de crash. Essas opções que estavam totalmente out of the money devem agora valer bastante. Será que ainda as mantém...?

[Pata-Hari]

Muito interessante, Atomez. É sempre importante saber o que Ele pensa.

[atomez]

Warren Buffett Tells Shareholders He Did "Some Dumb Things" In 2008

Buffett admits that "I made at least one major mistake of commission and several lesser ones that also hurt... Furthermore, I made some errors of omission, sucking my thumb when new facts came in that should have caused me to re-examine my thinking and promptly take action."

The mistake of commission: buying a large amount of ConocoPhillips [COP 37.35 -1.10 (-2.86%) ] stock just as energy prices were near their peak. Buffett writes, "I in no way anticipated the dramatic fall in energy prices that occurred in the last half of the year." He still thinks oil will eventually go well above its current $40-$50 range, "but so far I have been dead wrong."

Even if energy prices do rise, "The terrible timing of my purchase has cost Berkshire several billion dollars."

Buffett also reveals that he spent $244 million for shares of two Irish banks that "appeared cheap" to him. At the end of the year, they were written down to their market price of $27 million, for a loss of 89 percent, and they've continued to drop.



"The tennis crowd would call my mistakes 'unforced errors.'"

But he says he's not bothered by the overall "significant decline" in Berkshire's portfolio. "We enjoy such price declines if we have funds available to increase our positions."

Buffett confirms that he sold some stocks he would have preferred to keep to fund Berkshire's purchases of $14.5 billion in fixed-income securities from Wrigley, Goldman Sachs [GS 91.08 -1.07 (-1.16%) ], and General Electric [ Loading... () ]. He calls the holdings "more than satisfactory" based just on the high current yields they are delivering. Equity participation is a "bonus."

Those sales primarily involved Johnson & Johnson [JNJ 50.00 -2.44 (-4.65%) ], Procter & Gamble [PG 48.17 -0.80 (-1.63%) ], and Conoco. (See last week's WBW post Why Warren Buffett Isn't a Hypocrite.)

"I have pledged - to you, the rating agencies and myself - to always run Berkshire with more than ample cash. We never want to count on the kindness of strangers in order to meet tomorrow's obligations. When forced to choose, I will not trade even a night's sleep for the chance of extra profits."

BERKSHIRE'S WORST YEAR

The letter also reveals a 9.6 percent decline in Berkshire's book value per-share last year, making 2008 the company's worst year since Buffett took over in 1965. Book value fell by $11.5 billion during the year.

There has been only one annual decline before this one. In 2001, book value fell 6.2 percent.

Compared to the S&P, however, Berkshire's drop is relatively small. With dividends included, the S&P's book value fell 27.4 percent, giving Berkshire its biggest "win" since 2002.

In the letter, Buffett notes that it was also the S&P's biggest decline during the past 44 years.

"By yearend, investors of all stripes were bloodied and confused, much as if they were small birds that had strayed into a badminton game."

DEFENDING THE DERIVATIVES

In a lengthy section on derivatives, Buffett calls them "dangerous" but defends Berkshire's 251 contracts. "I believe each contract we own was mispriced at inception, sometimes dramatically so."

He says the derivatives "float" (payments made to Berkshire by the contracts' buyers minus losses paid by the company) totaled $8.1 billion at the end of the year, money that can be invested.

And "only a small percentage of our contracts call for any posting of collateral when the market moves against us."

He specifically addresses the "equity put" contracts that have caused some concern among investors, revealing that Berkshire has "added modestly" to them.

The contracts, which insure against stock market declines over a period of many years, total $37.1 billion. They're written against the S&P 500, the U.K.'s FTSE 100, the Euro Stoxx 50 in Europe, and Japan's Nikkei 225.

Berkshire is only required to make any payments when the contracts expire. The first comes due in 2019 and the last in 2028. The mark-to-market, or 'paper', loss on the equity put contracts totals $5.1 billion.

Buffett emphasizes a point that he says is often misunderstood. "For us to lose the full $37.1 billion we have at risk, all stocks in all four indices would have to go to zero on their various termination dates." If the indices are down 25 percent, Berkshire would owe about $9 billion between 2019 and 2028, and would have had use of the $4.9 billion premium all along.

Buffett's conclusion: "We have told you before that our derivative contracts, subject as they are to mark-to-market accounting, will produce wild swings in the earnings we report. The ups and downs neither cheer nor bother Charlie (Munger) and me. Indeed, the 'downs' can be helpful in that they give us an opportunity to expand a position on favorable terms. I hope this explanation of our dealers will lead you to think similarly."