Robert Prechter - Elliott Theory
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By John Parry
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks will remain in a bear market for years as company earnings shrink further, and the S&P 500 could fall by half from current levels even though there could be a sharp short-term rally soon, Robert Prechter, who had forecast the 1987 market crash, said on Friday.
"My long term opinion is that the bear market has several years left to run, and stock prices will go a lot lower," Prechter, chief executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International, said in a telephone interview. "So any rally that happens is going to be a bear market rally."
The S&P this week broke below 745 points -- 19 months after Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International had recommended shorting the benchmark index down to that level.
Now, Prechter said, the S&P index could fall by half from these levels over the long term, although he declined to give a specific forecast.
"We are less than halfway through it price-wise," he said. "The market is still overvalued, one reason being that companies continue to lower earnings."
But near term, the risk of a kneejerk rebound in stock prices has risen.
This week Prechter recommended closing out the short position recommended on the S&P 500 back in 2007, because too many investors are now betting that prices will drop.
"The bear side has gotten a bit crowded in the stock market," Prechter said, but said this is a short term strategic view only.
On Friday morning, the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low around 735 points, mauled by deepening worries about the banking system and government data showing the deepest quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s.
NO GLITTER IN GOLD
Prechter now advocates betting on a decline in precious metals, after investors fearful about the safety of their money amid the biggest global financial crisis since the Great Depression have piled into the classic safe haven of gold in recent weeks, boosting its price.
On Monday, Prechter forecast that gold had just peaked, at $1,000 an ounce.
"Gold and silver should go significantly lower," he said. "Too many people now think owning them is a good idea. Remember when everybody thought owning real estate and stocks was a good idea?"
Gold, which briefly topped the $1,000 mark last week on escalating fears about the deeply impaired state of debt-burdened banks, has since slipped to about $950. Gold hit "an important intermediate term peak," at $1,000, Prechter said.
"Again, nothing is certain, but I like betting against crowds. And we have had so many to bet against in recent years: real estate, stocks, subprime mortgages, The New Economy, oil, collectibles, commodities, baseball salaries, and now silver and bonds. It's been a smorgasbord of opportunity," Prechter said.
In addition, Prechter has a pessimistic outlook on U.S. government bonds.
"Treasury bonds have started a bear market," over the longer term, he said.
"Several scenarios could unfold to explain why: one of them is that government borrowing demands could go up and up and creditors could demand higher yields," he said. The U.S. government is expected to issue some $2 trillion of debt this year.
Fixed-income analysts have been stepping up warnings that over recent months that gargantuan government bond issuance to pay for financial rescue efforts may push yields, which move inversely to prices, steeply higher. The 10-year yield traded one percentage point its five-decade trough on Friday, at 3.04 percent.
But Prechter, as he originally urged in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, continues to favor safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.
"It's a deflationary environment. Safe cash equivalents are still where you want to be," he said. "I am still in favor of (U.S.) T-bills," he said. "The dollar bull market has more to run. That is one reason to hold them."
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks will remain in a bear market for years as company earnings shrink further, and the S&P 500 could fall by half from current levels even though there could be a sharp short-term rally soon, Robert Prechter, who had forecast the 1987 market crash, said on Friday.
"My long term opinion is that the bear market has several years left to run, and stock prices will go a lot lower," Prechter, chief executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International, said in a telephone interview. "So any rally that happens is going to be a bear market rally."
The S&P this week broke below 745 points -- 19 months after Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International had recommended shorting the benchmark index down to that level.
Now, Prechter said, the S&P index could fall by half from these levels over the long term, although he declined to give a specific forecast.
"We are less than halfway through it price-wise," he said. "The market is still overvalued, one reason being that companies continue to lower earnings."
But near term, the risk of a kneejerk rebound in stock prices has risen.
This week Prechter recommended closing out the short position recommended on the S&P 500 back in 2007, because too many investors are now betting that prices will drop.
"The bear side has gotten a bit crowded in the stock market," Prechter said, but said this is a short term strategic view only.
On Friday morning, the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low around 735 points, mauled by deepening worries about the banking system and government data showing the deepest quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s.
NO GLITTER IN GOLD
Prechter now advocates betting on a decline in precious metals, after investors fearful about the safety of their money amid the biggest global financial crisis since the Great Depression have piled into the classic safe haven of gold in recent weeks, boosting its price.
On Monday, Prechter forecast that gold had just peaked, at $1,000 an ounce.
"Gold and silver should go significantly lower," he said. "Too many people now think owning them is a good idea. Remember when everybody thought owning real estate and stocks was a good idea?"
Gold, which briefly topped the $1,000 mark last week on escalating fears about the deeply impaired state of debt-burdened banks, has since slipped to about $950. Gold hit "an important intermediate term peak," at $1,000, Prechter said.
"Again, nothing is certain, but I like betting against crowds. And we have had so many to bet against in recent years: real estate, stocks, subprime mortgages, The New Economy, oil, collectibles, commodities, baseball salaries, and now silver and bonds. It's been a smorgasbord of opportunity," Prechter said.
In addition, Prechter has a pessimistic outlook on U.S. government bonds.
"Treasury bonds have started a bear market," over the longer term, he said.
"Several scenarios could unfold to explain why: one of them is that government borrowing demands could go up and up and creditors could demand higher yields," he said. The U.S. government is expected to issue some $2 trillion of debt this year.
Fixed-income analysts have been stepping up warnings that over recent months that gargantuan government bond issuance to pay for financial rescue efforts may push yields, which move inversely to prices, steeply higher. The 10-year yield traded one percentage point its five-decade trough on Friday, at 3.04 percent.
But Prechter, as he originally urged in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, continues to favor safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.
"It's a deflationary environment. Safe cash equivalents are still where you want to be," he said. "I am still in favor of (U.S.) T-bills," he said. "The dollar bull market has more to run. That is one reason to hold them."
-
- Mensagens: 4483
- Registado: 12/3/2008 22:06
By John Parry
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks will remain in a bear market for years as company earnings shrink further, and the S&P 500 could fall by half from current levels even though there could be a sharp short-term rally soon, Robert Prechter, who had forecast the 1987 market crash, said on Friday.
"My long term opinion is that the bear market has several years left to run, and stock prices will go a lot lower," Prechter, chief executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International, said in a telephone interview. "So any rally that happens is going to be a bear market rally."
The S&P this week broke below 745 points -- 19 months after Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International had recommended shorting the benchmark index down to that level.
Now, Prechter said, the S&P index could fall by half from these levels over the long term, although he declined to give a specific forecast.
"We are less than halfway through it price-wise," he said. "The market is still overvalued, one reason being that companies continue to lower earnings."
But near term, the risk of a kneejerk rebound in stock prices has risen.
This week Prechter recommended closing out the short position recommended on the S&P 500 back in 2007, because too many investors are now betting that prices will drop.
"The bear side has gotten a bit crowded in the stock market," Prechter said, but said this is a short term strategic view only.
On Friday morning, the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low around 735 points, mauled by deepening worries about the banking system and government data showing the deepest quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s.
NO GLITTER IN GOLD
Prechter now advocates betting on a decline in precious metals, after investors fearful about the safety of their money amid the biggest global financial crisis since the Great Depression have piled into the classic safe haven of gold in recent weeks, boosting its price.
On Monday, Prechter forecast that gold had just peaked, at $1,000 an ounce.
"Gold and silver should go significantly lower," he said. "Too many people now think owning them is a good idea. Remember when everybody thought owning real estate and stocks was a good idea?"
Gold, which briefly topped the $1,000 mark last week on escalating fears about the deeply impaired state of debt-burdened banks, has since slipped to about $950. Gold hit "an important intermediate term peak," at $1,000, Prechter said.
"Again, nothing is certain, but I like betting against crowds. And we have had so many to bet against in recent years: real estate, stocks, subprime mortgages, The New Economy, oil, collectibles, commodities, baseball salaries, and now silver and bonds. It's been a smorgasbord of opportunity," Prechter said.
In addition, Prechter has a pessimistic outlook on U.S. government bonds.
"Treasury bonds have started a bear market," over the longer term, he said.
"Several scenarios could unfold to explain why: one of them is that government borrowing demands could go up and up and creditors could demand higher yields," he said. The U.S. government is expected to issue some $2 trillion of debt this year.
Fixed-income analysts have been stepping up warnings that over recent months that gargantuan government bond issuance to pay for financial rescue efforts may push yields, which move inversely to prices, steeply higher. The 10-year yield traded one percentage point its five-decade trough on Friday, at 3.04 percent.
But Prechter, as he originally urged in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, continues to favor safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.
"It's a deflationary environment. Safe cash equivalents are still where you want to be," he said. "I am still in favor of (U.S.) T-bills," he said. "The dollar bull market has more to run. That is one reason to hold them."
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks will remain in a bear market for years as company earnings shrink further, and the S&P 500 could fall by half from current levels even though there could be a sharp short-term rally soon, Robert Prechter, who had forecast the 1987 market crash, said on Friday.
"My long term opinion is that the bear market has several years left to run, and stock prices will go a lot lower," Prechter, chief executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International, said in a telephone interview. "So any rally that happens is going to be a bear market rally."
The S&P this week broke below 745 points -- 19 months after Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International had recommended shorting the benchmark index down to that level.
Now, Prechter said, the S&P index could fall by half from these levels over the long term, although he declined to give a specific forecast.
"We are less than halfway through it price-wise," he said. "The market is still overvalued, one reason being that companies continue to lower earnings."
But near term, the risk of a kneejerk rebound in stock prices has risen.
This week Prechter recommended closing out the short position recommended on the S&P 500 back in 2007, because too many investors are now betting that prices will drop.
"The bear side has gotten a bit crowded in the stock market," Prechter said, but said this is a short term strategic view only.
On Friday morning, the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low around 735 points, mauled by deepening worries about the banking system and government data showing the deepest quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s.
NO GLITTER IN GOLD
Prechter now advocates betting on a decline in precious metals, after investors fearful about the safety of their money amid the biggest global financial crisis since the Great Depression have piled into the classic safe haven of gold in recent weeks, boosting its price.
On Monday, Prechter forecast that gold had just peaked, at $1,000 an ounce.
"Gold and silver should go significantly lower," he said. "Too many people now think owning them is a good idea. Remember when everybody thought owning real estate and stocks was a good idea?"
Gold, which briefly topped the $1,000 mark last week on escalating fears about the deeply impaired state of debt-burdened banks, has since slipped to about $950. Gold hit "an important intermediate term peak," at $1,000, Prechter said.
"Again, nothing is certain, but I like betting against crowds. And we have had so many to bet against in recent years: real estate, stocks, subprime mortgages, The New Economy, oil, collectibles, commodities, baseball salaries, and now silver and bonds. It's been a smorgasbord of opportunity," Prechter said.
In addition, Prechter has a pessimistic outlook on U.S. government bonds.
"Treasury bonds have started a bear market," over the longer term, he said.
"Several scenarios could unfold to explain why: one of them is that government borrowing demands could go up and up and creditors could demand higher yields," he said. The U.S. government is expected to issue some $2 trillion of debt this year.
Fixed-income analysts have been stepping up warnings that over recent months that gargantuan government bond issuance to pay for financial rescue efforts may push yields, which move inversely to prices, steeply higher. The 10-year yield traded one percentage point its five-decade trough on Friday, at 3.04 percent.
But Prechter, as he originally urged in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, continues to favor safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.
"It's a deflationary environment. Safe cash equivalents are still where you want to be," he said. "I am still in favor of (U.S.) T-bills," he said. "The dollar bull market has more to run. That is one reason to hold them."
-
- Mensagens: 4483
- Registado: 12/3/2008 22:06
By John Parry
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks will remain in a bear market for years as company earnings shrink further, and the S&P 500 could fall by half from current levels even though there could be a sharp short-term rally soon, Robert Prechter, who had forecast the 1987 market crash, said on Friday.
"My long term opinion is that the bear market has several years left to run, and stock prices will go a lot lower," Prechter, chief executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International, said in a telephone interview. "So any rally that happens is going to be a bear market rally."
The S&P this week broke below 745 points -- 19 months after Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International had recommended shorting the benchmark index down to that level.
Now, Prechter said, the S&P index could fall by half from these levels over the long term, although he declined to give a specific forecast.
"We are less than halfway through it price-wise," he said. "The market is still overvalued, one reason being that companies continue to lower earnings."
But near term, the risk of a kneejerk rebound in stock prices has risen.
This week Prechter recommended closing out the short position recommended on the S&P 500 back in 2007, because too many investors are now betting that prices will drop.
"The bear side has gotten a bit crowded in the stock market," Prechter said, but said this is a short term strategic view only.
On Friday morning, the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low around 735 points, mauled by deepening worries about the banking system and government data showing the deepest quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s.
NO GLITTER IN GOLD
Prechter now advocates betting on a decline in precious metals, after investors fearful about the safety of their money amid the biggest global financial crisis since the Great Depression have piled into the classic safe haven of gold in recent weeks, boosting its price.
On Monday, Prechter forecast that gold had just peaked, at $1,000 an ounce.
"Gold and silver should go significantly lower," he said. "Too many people now think owning them is a good idea. Remember when everybody thought owning real estate and stocks was a good idea?"
Gold, which briefly topped the $1,000 mark last week on escalating fears about the deeply impaired state of debt-burdened banks, has since slipped to about $950. Gold hit "an important intermediate term peak," at $1,000, Prechter said.
"Again, nothing is certain, but I like betting against crowds. And we have had so many to bet against in recent years: real estate, stocks, subprime mortgages, The New Economy, oil, collectibles, commodities, baseball salaries, and now silver and bonds. It's been a smorgasbord of opportunity," Prechter said.
In addition, Prechter has a pessimistic outlook on U.S. government bonds.
"Treasury bonds have started a bear market," over the longer term, he said.
"Several scenarios could unfold to explain why: one of them is that government borrowing demands could go up and up and creditors could demand higher yields," he said. The U.S. government is expected to issue some $2 trillion of debt this year.
Fixed-income analysts have been stepping up warnings that over recent months that gargantuan government bond issuance to pay for financial rescue efforts may push yields, which move inversely to prices, steeply higher. The 10-year yield traded one percentage point its five-decade trough on Friday, at 3.04 percent.
But Prechter, as he originally urged in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, continues to favor safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.
"It's a deflationary environment. Safe cash equivalents are still where you want to be," he said. "I am still in favor of (U.S.) T-bills," he said. "The dollar bull market has more to run. That is one reason to hold them."
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks will remain in a bear market for years as company earnings shrink further, and the S&P 500 could fall by half from current levels even though there could be a sharp short-term rally soon, Robert Prechter, who had forecast the 1987 market crash, said on Friday.
"My long term opinion is that the bear market has several years left to run, and stock prices will go a lot lower," Prechter, chief executive officer at research company Elliott Wave International, said in a telephone interview. "So any rally that happens is going to be a bear market rally."
The S&P this week broke below 745 points -- 19 months after Gainesville, Georgia-based Elliott Wave International had recommended shorting the benchmark index down to that level.
Now, Prechter said, the S&P index could fall by half from these levels over the long term, although he declined to give a specific forecast.
"We are less than halfway through it price-wise," he said. "The market is still overvalued, one reason being that companies continue to lower earnings."
But near term, the risk of a kneejerk rebound in stock prices has risen.
This week Prechter recommended closing out the short position recommended on the S&P 500 back in 2007, because too many investors are now betting that prices will drop.
"The bear side has gotten a bit crowded in the stock market," Prechter said, but said this is a short term strategic view only.
On Friday morning, the S&P 500 fell to a 12-year low around 735 points, mauled by deepening worries about the banking system and government data showing the deepest quarterly contraction in the U.S. economy since the early 1980s.
NO GLITTER IN GOLD
Prechter now advocates betting on a decline in precious metals, after investors fearful about the safety of their money amid the biggest global financial crisis since the Great Depression have piled into the classic safe haven of gold in recent weeks, boosting its price.
On Monday, Prechter forecast that gold had just peaked, at $1,000 an ounce.
"Gold and silver should go significantly lower," he said. "Too many people now think owning them is a good idea. Remember when everybody thought owning real estate and stocks was a good idea?"
Gold, which briefly topped the $1,000 mark last week on escalating fears about the deeply impaired state of debt-burdened banks, has since slipped to about $950. Gold hit "an important intermediate term peak," at $1,000, Prechter said.
"Again, nothing is certain, but I like betting against crowds. And we have had so many to bet against in recent years: real estate, stocks, subprime mortgages, The New Economy, oil, collectibles, commodities, baseball salaries, and now silver and bonds. It's been a smorgasbord of opportunity," Prechter said.
In addition, Prechter has a pessimistic outlook on U.S. government bonds.
"Treasury bonds have started a bear market," over the longer term, he said.
"Several scenarios could unfold to explain why: one of them is that government borrowing demands could go up and up and creditors could demand higher yields," he said. The U.S. government is expected to issue some $2 trillion of debt this year.
Fixed-income analysts have been stepping up warnings that over recent months that gargantuan government bond issuance to pay for financial rescue efforts may push yields, which move inversely to prices, steeply higher. The 10-year yield traded one percentage point its five-decade trough on Friday, at 3.04 percent.
But Prechter, as he originally urged in his 2002 book "Conquer the Crash," which warned of the dangers of a U.S. debt bubble and deflationary depression, continues to favor safer cash proxies such as Treasury bills.
"It's a deflationary environment. Safe cash equivalents are still where you want to be," he said. "I am still in favor of (U.S.) T-bills," he said. "The dollar bull market has more to run. That is one reason to hold them."
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- Mensagens: 4483
- Registado: 12/3/2008 22:06
vi agora... e realmente o que ele diz, nao foi nada do que vi na Net.
Ele simplesmete disse que era uma altura de ele e os seus clientes nao arriscarem mais o $$ uma vez que a convicçao dele era que tinham que quebrar os minimos de 2002 e quebrar os minimos de Novemobro... isso ja o foi feito, entao e' uma questao de tomar lucros.
700 pontos desde que aconselhou shorts em Nov 2007.
Disse ainda, que ve no curto prazo ainda mais uns minimosmas pouco.
Diz tambem que um dos factores foi ver demasiado sentimento Bearish, segundo ele 97%, e ele nao gosta de estar no rebanho.
Disse tambem o mesmo do ouro e da prata, que o sentimento e' de 96% bullish no metais preciosos e que acha q esta' muito "crowded" para alem de que mostrou um grafico de 20 e tal anos em como o ouro costuma fazer topos no primeiro trimestre do ano sendo esta uma altura propicia...e sendo ele um amante do ouro que lhe era dificil ir contra o ouro mas que acha que estamos num topo significativo...acha q devemos ter ouro mas que ainda nao e' a altura deapostar nele, que acredita q melhores preços virao
Para finalizar, acha qo o Bear Market ainda esta' longe de acabar 2/3 anos disse ele...
Gostei da entrevista.
Ele simplesmete disse que era uma altura de ele e os seus clientes nao arriscarem mais o $$ uma vez que a convicçao dele era que tinham que quebrar os minimos de 2002 e quebrar os minimos de Novemobro... isso ja o foi feito, entao e' uma questao de tomar lucros.
700 pontos desde que aconselhou shorts em Nov 2007.
Disse ainda, que ve no curto prazo ainda mais uns minimosmas pouco.
Diz tambem que um dos factores foi ver demasiado sentimento Bearish, segundo ele 97%, e ele nao gosta de estar no rebanho.
Disse tambem o mesmo do ouro e da prata, que o sentimento e' de 96% bullish no metais preciosos e que acha q esta' muito "crowded" para alem de que mostrou um grafico de 20 e tal anos em como o ouro costuma fazer topos no primeiro trimestre do ano sendo esta uma altura propicia...e sendo ele um amante do ouro que lhe era dificil ir contra o ouro mas que acha que estamos num topo significativo...acha q devemos ter ouro mas que ainda nao e' a altura deapostar nele, que acredita q melhores preços virao
Para finalizar, acha qo o Bear Market ainda esta' longe de acabar 2/3 anos disse ele...
Gostei da entrevista.
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- Mensagens: 4483
- Registado: 12/3/2008 22:06
Enslaved Escreveu:salvadorveiga Escreveu:Parece q ele vai ser entrevistado na Bloomberg ou na CNBC as 5 pm americanas.... portanto as nossas 21 ou 22 n tenho a certeza...
Só li agora o email. Já deu?
Vai dar agora.
Surf's up and down in the markets
http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/
http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/
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- Mensagens: 3355
- Registado: 28/2/2007 18:24
- Localização: Valhalla
salvadorveiga Escreveu:Parece q ele vai ser entrevistado na Bloomberg ou na CNBC as 5 pm americanas.... portanto as nossas 21 ou 22 n tenho a certeza...
Só li agora o email. Já deu?
Surf's up and down in the markets
http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/
http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/
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- Mensagens: 3355
- Registado: 28/2/2007 18:24
- Localização: Valhalla
salvadorveiga Escreveu:nao ? pensei q tinha sido ontemlol
Ontem batemos em valores de 2002-2003.
O Dow é que já está lá e... The Dow leads the way
"Experiência é o nome que nós damos aos nossos próprios erros."
http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/
http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/
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- Mensagens: 472
- Registado: 11/12/2004 4:46
salvadorveiga Escreveu:pois... dai eu estar curioso em saber as posiçoes dos Elliottistas ca' da casa...
Boas salvador, o que ele diz não é nada de novo. Ele prevê meramente a onda B deste bear market. A curto prazo ainda não chegaram ao fim as quedas e posso-te garantir que isso é unânime pela EWI
.
Abraços
Surf's up and down in the markets
http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/
http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/
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- Mensagens: 3355
- Registado: 28/2/2007 18:24
- Localização: Valhalla
Estamos descansados pois ainda não batemos nos valores de 12 anos atrás no SPX
"Experiência é o nome que nós damos aos nossos próprios erros."
http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/
http://elliottmarketwaves.blogspot.com/
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- Mensagens: 472
- Registado: 11/12/2004 4:46
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- Mensagens: 4483
- Registado: 12/3/2008 22:06
Este homem é um génio. 
Remember the Golden Rule: Those who have the gold make the rules.
***
"A soberania e o respeito de Portugal impõem que neste lugar se erga um Forte, e isso é obra e serviço dos homens de El-Rei nosso senhor e, como tal, por mais duro, por mais difícil e por mais trabalhoso que isso dê, (...) é serviço de Portugal. E tem que se cumprir."
***
"A soberania e o respeito de Portugal impõem que neste lugar se erga um Forte, e isso é obra e serviço dos homens de El-Rei nosso senhor e, como tal, por mais duro, por mais difícil e por mais trabalhoso que isso dê, (...) é serviço de Portugal. E tem que se cumprir."
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- Mensagens: 3030
- Registado: 28/2/2007 14:18
Robert Prechter - Elliott Theory
Prechter Advises Closing Short Positions on Stocks (Update2)
By Sarah Jones
Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Elliott Wave International Inc.’s Robert Prechter, who advised shorting U.S. stocks three months before the bear market began, said investors should end that bet after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled to a 12-year low.
He warned of a “sharp and scary” rebound for anyone still wagering on a retreat, according to this month’s “Elliott Wave Theorist.” Short selling is the sale of borrowed stock in the hope of profiting by buying the securities later at a lower price and returning them to the shareholder.
“This is an environment of escalating financial chaos,” wrote Prechter, famous for cautioning that stocks would crash two weeks before the Black Monday retreat in 1987. “Our main job is to keep the money we have. If we exit now, we will do that.”
The 60-year-old former rock-and-roll drummer is an advocate of the wave principle, a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. Elliott concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.
In addition, the waves share a variety of features: Wave two never falls below the starting level of wave one; wave three is never the shortest; waves one and five tend to be of equal length; and wave sizes are often related by a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence, wherein each number is based on the sum of the two previous ones.
‘Aggressive Speculators’
The S&P 500 has sunk 52 percent since its October 2007 record as financial firms worldwide posted $1.11 trillion in credit-related losses and the U.S., Europe and Japan fell into the first simultaneous recessions since World War II. In July 2007, Prechter advised shorting U.S. stocks, saying “aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position.” He has now reversed that call.
Prechter’s recommendation follows the advice of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s U.S. equity strategist Thomas Lee, who today issued a “trading buy” recommendation on the S&P 500. The index fell to 743.33 yesterday. Lee set a “short-term” forecast of 800.
“The market is compressed,” Prechter said in the note published yesterday. “When it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than late.”
He has written or edited 13 books, including “Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior” in 1978 and “Conquer the Crash” in 2002. His 1995 book “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market,” was published five years before the Internet bubble burst, driving a 49 percent retreat in the S&P 500 through October 2002. Still, investors who followed his advice missed out on the index more than doubling.
Pergutno eu, aos EW's aqui do forum o que acham do "bitate" (que diga-se de quem vem, tem q ser levado a serio...) deste senhor ?
By Sarah Jones
Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Elliott Wave International Inc.’s Robert Prechter, who advised shorting U.S. stocks three months before the bear market began, said investors should end that bet after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled to a 12-year low.
He warned of a “sharp and scary” rebound for anyone still wagering on a retreat, according to this month’s “Elliott Wave Theorist.” Short selling is the sale of borrowed stock in the hope of profiting by buying the securities later at a lower price and returning them to the shareholder.
“This is an environment of escalating financial chaos,” wrote Prechter, famous for cautioning that stocks would crash two weeks before the Black Monday retreat in 1987. “Our main job is to keep the money we have. If we exit now, we will do that.”
The 60-year-old former rock-and-roll drummer is an advocate of the wave principle, a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. Elliott concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.
In addition, the waves share a variety of features: Wave two never falls below the starting level of wave one; wave three is never the shortest; waves one and five tend to be of equal length; and wave sizes are often related by a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence, wherein each number is based on the sum of the two previous ones.
‘Aggressive Speculators’
The S&P 500 has sunk 52 percent since its October 2007 record as financial firms worldwide posted $1.11 trillion in credit-related losses and the U.S., Europe and Japan fell into the first simultaneous recessions since World War II. In July 2007, Prechter advised shorting U.S. stocks, saying “aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position.” He has now reversed that call.
Prechter’s recommendation follows the advice of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s U.S. equity strategist Thomas Lee, who today issued a “trading buy” recommendation on the S&P 500. The index fell to 743.33 yesterday. Lee set a “short-term” forecast of 800.
“The market is compressed,” Prechter said in the note published yesterday. “When it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than late.”
He has written or edited 13 books, including “Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior” in 1978 and “Conquer the Crash” in 2002. His 1995 book “At the Crest of the Tidal Wave: A Forecast for the Great Bear Market,” was published five years before the Internet bubble burst, driving a 49 percent retreat in the S&P 500 through October 2002. Still, investors who followed his advice missed out on the index more than doubling.
Pergutno eu, aos EW's aqui do forum o que acham do "bitate" (que diga-se de quem vem, tem q ser levado a serio...) deste senhor ?
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