Oeiras é onde os rendimentos são mais elevados. Veja no seu concelho

[Ulisses Pereira]

Freaky Friday Potpourri: Two Invisible Catalysts?
Todd Harrison
Feb 13, 2009 10:35 am


" Mark-to-market suspension and the wiping of CDS contracts deserve your attention.




“This desperation, dislocation, separation, condemnation, revelation, in temptation, isolation, desolation, let it go.”
--U2

Following a stretch that felt stranger than it was—the Sleep-O-Meter has been pounding the right side of the tachometer—we power up for the final fifth of our freaky week.

I was at an off-site yesterday afternoon and returned to my turret to find intraday Snappers littered across my eight screens. While the rally coincided with the plan to help homeowners, my initial instinct was that someone pushed a button on the Beltway.

I used to be called a conspiracy theorist when I wrote that. Now, it’s a central policy tool. Scary sign of the times, eh?



The big picture dynamic remains decidedly daunting as we’ve got textbook negative churns across mainstay indices and a marked deterioration in social mood and risk appetites.

On the flip side—and there’s always two sides—in addition to the sheer magnitude of stimuli which will eventually lend bear market rally, there are two potential “game changing” catalysts. The first is the suspension of mark-to-market accounting and the second is wiping out CDS contracts that aren’t hedges against underlying instruments.

Neither of those efforts are solutions but rather drugs that mask the symptoms of the disease. Still, if we’re to focus on the journey rather than the destination, we must respect that a corner and caged animal will do anything as they fight for survival.

Risk management over reward chasing and let’s be careful out there.

Random Thoughts:



Heartfelt gratitude to the amazing Minyanville Board of Advisors—Bill, Chris, Tom, Roger, Larry, Wenda, Len, Succ, Tom, Fish and Charlie—for their awesome effort and excellent smiles this week.


Community isn’t going to be defined by red states, blues states, borders or religion. It will be about human capital, a common belief system and inner strength as we find our way.


S&P 800 is a level of lore and one we've been watching for some time. Should it break—and remember, levels weaken with each subsequent retest—it paves the way to Pep's long-offered level S&P 783 vibe.


I entered Thursday with a placeholder USO call position (defined risk) and added into yesterday’s oil slick. I also nibbled on a snivlet of Yahoo (YHOO), where I'm "trading around" a small core.


Back scratch anyone?


I’ve been buying dips to sell blips in the banks these last few weeks but entered yesterday flat to the share. Before I stepped out for an afternoon meld, I bought some financial crack (FAS) in the abyss and slapped a $1 trailing stop on the position. Given the end of session lift, I carry that risk into this morning’s glory.


To be clear—and this is important—I’m not a fan, per se, of ultra-ETF’s. I only use them for intraday or—at most—a few days at a time. It’s the definition of playing with fire and the concerns of the Minyanville professors are well documented.


Take some time to chew through the Emmy Award Winning Hoofy and Boo episodes. A little levity goes a long way, now more than ever.


Keep BKX 25 on your radar as a level of multiple lows.


N's over S's yesterday as evidenced by Google (GOOG), Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple (AAPL) and the semis on one side and General Electric (GE) and the rest of the cyclicals on the other.



Answers I Really Wanna Know...


Oy! T.O. and Vick wearing Silver and Black?


Y'all see that downside gap in Bank America (BAC) between $5.35 and $4.90?


Is it safe to say that sub-prime is no longer contained?


Is it possible that the fear of missing still dominates the fear of losing?


The best business advice I ever got? "Do you trust them?"


Why can't I shake the sense that General Electric (GE) will follow in the footsteps of other financials in drag such as General Motors (GM) and Ford (F)?


Is Research in Motion (RIMM) tainted love for a while?


Is anyone else really excited for our three-day requisite respite?

Good luck, Minyans, and let’s end this week with a smile on our puss and some jingle in our jeans.


R.P."

(in www.minyanville.com)