APB acusa Concorrência de lançar consulta enviesada e com "resultados predeterminados"

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Freaky Friday Potpourri: The Eye of the Tiger"
Todd Harrison
Jan 23, 2009 10:30 am


"We've been talking about the perfect storm brewing on the financial horizon for a mighty long time. In fact, when we first started handing umbrellas to ye faithful, most folks still had sunscreen on their nose.

Fast forward two years and 80%. Lehman Brothers? Gone. Fannie Mae (FNM)? Fini. AIG (AIG)? MIA. Merrill, Wachovia, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac (FRE)... you know the deal.

The government invented fingers as fast as they could to plug the holes in the proverbial dike but their efforts fell short. In the process, unintended consequences continued to manifest as social mood shifted and risk appetites abated.

It started with moral hazard, continued with Martial Law, changed the face of capitalism and forever altered the global socioeconomic landscape.

It's no shocker that the fundamental landscape has softened from Microsoft (MSFT) to Nokia (NOK) to General Electric (GE). And while select companies put on a brave face—Apple (AAPL) and IBM (IBM) come to mind—the universal view is that things are bad and they're getting worse.

While we loudly rang the "socioeconomic malaise entirely more depressing than a recession" bell in August 2006, we understand that the destination we arrive at pales in comparison to the path that we take to get there. Therein lies to trick to my trades and the nuts and guts where I spend my days.

A few days ago, I asked Will The Banking Industry Will Survive? The most obvious answer is "not in an iteration anything close to what it was" but the devils are in the details. As discussed in that column, nationalization, while perhaps warranted in select situations, poses grave risks in terms of motivating human capital to fix the system.

I believe there are potential stopgap solutions, including but not limited to issuing employees equity options at current levels as an incentive to stick around, but make no mistake that there are many moving parts.

My current effort in buying select banks—adding Bank America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) this morning (as well as some SSO with a tight trailing stop) is the definition of a pure trade or, in other words, an honest attempt to capture the disconnect between perception and reality.

In this wild world of wicked crosscurrents, that's where the profits reside.

Random Thoughts


"The January 20th transfer of power is an important inflection point, for if we can collectively navigate past that date without geopolitical conflict, stocks have room to run into March or April, when the bloom begins to fade on the new administration’s rose." Ten Themes, January 7, 2009.


As yesterday’s market closed and Professor Adam "Meow Mix" Katz sat in my office patiently awaiting our martini, sushi, Guitar Hero and Frozen Hot Chocolate, I was struck by the underlying bid to the tape. Why? Lemme count the ways:


Once upon a time, 15% losses in Citigroup and Bank America would have been reason enough to upchuck. That didn’t happen. In fact, the divergence of JP Morgan (JPM) (+2%), Goldman (GS) (+2%) and Mother Morgan (MS) (+4%) was a sea change for a sector that's been all for one and one for gall.


General Electric was higher—even a broken clock is right twice a day!—but I offered, on the Buzz & Banter, that something still didn’t feel right. Perhaps it’s a combination of the "financial in drag" vibe we trotted out in 2005 (when the stock was near $40) and the risks to conglomerates that Pep so presciently vibed last month.


Dig the 'Ville? Wear it proud, Yo, and remember that 10% of all Minyanville merchandise sales is channeled to the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education which, of course, honors the memory of my grandfather and best friend.


When pressed for some vehicles while giving a radio interview last night, I offered that Research in Motion (RIMM) and Amazon (AMZN) were potential bang for the buck plays while "stocks banged up for good reason" (financials, retail, energy) could also be considered. Remember, during bear market rallies, you need to flip your thought process upside down.


Seriously, I slay myself. Jay Z diggin' RIMM? Lemme lemme lemme upgrade!


Earlier this week, I eluded that M&A would be an incremental positive for this market on the margin. The proposed $60 billion Pfizer (PFE)-Wyeth (WYE) combination would most certainly qualify as an anecdotal piece to that puzzle.


If you haven't read Minyan Peter's Open Letter to Tim Geithner, please do so. In terms of "affecting positive change by being part of the solution," it doesn't get much better than this.


This Little Wing is for Minyan Mr. Mew, who thought I thought that it was an SRV rip. No sir, I know the roots—and have mad respect for Jimi—I just love the way Stevie brought it home. Either way and anyway, enjoy the master during this Freaky Friday session.


"Imagine life as a game in which you are juggling five balls in the air. You name them - work, health, family, friends and spirit - and your keeping all of these in the air.

You will soon understand that work is a rubber ball. If you drop it, it will bounce back. But the other four balls- health, family, friends and spirit are made of glass.

If you drop one of these, they will be irrevocably scuffed, marked, nicked, damaged, or even shattered. They will never be the same. You must understand that and strive for balance in your life." --Brian Dyson CEO of Coca Cola 1959-1994.


Hit ‘em hard Minyans and remember that profitability begins within and gratitude is latitude.

R.P."

(in www.minyanville.com)