Economia portuguesa quase estagnada desde final do ano passado

[Adrox]

Desculpa dizer Ulisses, mas apesar de tu dizeres que o Cramer lança as suas analises de curto-prazo e tanto está Bull como Bear, desde há 1 semana e meia, ou 2 semanas que ele está Super-Bear!

Sim, eu sei que ele há uns meses tem lançado analises Bulls e Bears, mas desde há umas semanas para cá, que só vejo Bear no Cramer, e isto já foi discutido noutro artigo dele.

O que não quer dizer que tenha alguma critica a fazer, porque gosto mito dos artigos dele, principalmente das perguntas que ele deixa para o leitor reflectir.
Apenas deixar a constatação que a Bearish do Cramer continua.

Cumprimentos.

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Why We Can't Find a Bottom"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
11/15/2008 11:05 AM EST


"Am I too negative?




I focus on that every day. Every day. I want to see the silver linings that the press gives us daily and the managers who come on TV tell us about. I know we are not supposed to wait for the data to make us bullish and we have to buy into the teeth of the negative news.

But the negative news just keeps getting more negative. We do tons of bailouts -- this latest one with insurers buying these little banks to get in on the plan is about as spurious as they get -- but all they seem to do is hold us together to play another day.

The Treasury quickly backed away from the one thing that could really help us --root and branch buying of the mortgages and then refinancing them or sending them to the FHA for refinancing.

Now the FDIC wants to do it but doesn't have the capital to do so even as it is so right to do. Treasury and the Fed are making it up as they go along and other than a Barney Frank-led hearing this week well covered by Joe Nocera in this morning's New York Times, we have made no serious attempt to unwind the mortgages in the CDOs, which represent about 80% of the bad ones and can't be redone because of the CDO contracts that no one in Congress or Justice or anyone in government are willing to tackle.

Private enterprise at its best, the equivalent of the Eastern banks that hobbled the agrarians in the panic of 1896.

I know I hear about the big "tax cut" that comes from the lower gasoline prices. Yet, then I see the retail sales and they are so dismal that I know the Retail HOLDR (RTH - commentary - Cramer's Take) short-sellers are going to break the group. Then I fret that who the heck is going to lend the retailers money to hold down inventory for Christmas, and I see the prices of Liz Claiborne (LIZ - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Talbot's (TLB - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Ann Taylor (ANN - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Nordstrom (JWN - commentary - Cramer's Take) and J.C. Penney (JCP - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Sears (SHLD - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- oh man, Sears -- and I think that these are all better than any of the newly private companies like Neiman Marcus, and I know bankruptcies are around the corner.


Plus, GM (GM - commentary - Cramer's Take) . The company will most surely run out of money by year-end, and everyone acts as if it is enough to give the workers some benefits and close the company --"rationalize it" -- without recognizing that there are millions of ancillary jobs that are affected and in many ways will make things much worse.

Then there is Fannie (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Freddie (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take), which are finally showing their true colors as loss-making machines and can't buy the mortgages they typically do and mortgage rates aren't at 4% where they should be yet no homebuilder goes out of business and they keep pumping out homes.

And then there is AIG (AIG - commentary - Cramer's Take), which I am doing more work on this weekend. AIG which is making bogus CDO mortgage trusts whole simply because the exposure is so great to so many of the holders, most of whom are hedge funds and the contracts can't be broken.

Lehman hangs over us like a specter as do the annuities that can' tbe paid by the insurers. Meanwhile, if you try to tell the truth or show outrage about the insurers mismanagement they tell you that you are all wrong and then don't give us any data that tells us that.

We still have no major bankruptcies other than Lehman. We still have no resolution to the credit problems that is tenable enough to break the hold of fear. One look at all the publicly traded media companies tells me they are not on any footing, at least most of them, to survive. But there is no rationalization of the industry.

Of course all of the bulls keep getting discredited. Warren Buffett's new holdings come out and they will pop just like GE (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take) did oh so long ago. His "I'm buying" call on The New York Times op-ed page should have been labeled, "I have been buying," and his portfolio of insurance, sold S&P puts, furniture, bricks, gypsum board, carpets, paints and executive jet-leasing has to be among the worst.



And yet because the futures rally and rally hard we are supposed to be bullish even as the buyers are thinly capitalized funds that try to manipulate things up using ProShares Double and Triple and ETFs for Exxon (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Chevron (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take), lethal leveraged weapons, and often succeed.

It is true that the levels of stocks are amazing and when you check the charts out you can't believe the depths to which so many stocks have sunk. But there is no money for takeovers to clean up the mess and no company believes its stock should be where it is so they don't roll up all of the oils or the retailers or the infrastructure or the machine plays.

So it doesn't matter. Meanwhile the endless and reckless shorting of all of the etfs is so rapid that no natural buyers dare surface except the value funds that have money coming out of their eyeballs. The hedge funds are busy readying cash for end of year redemptions and the brokers have no capital to principal bid the sellers. So the selling goes on endlessly despite the bullishness I hear everywhere. The land of 1000 Bull Dances, I call it on my show.

There is a nascent belief that we have seen the lows and tested them and that we are through for the year when it comes to the downside. Indeed, big ECB and Chinese cuts and an auto bailout might help cure the uncertainty.

But every time I buy I get hurt. So does everyone else.

The bottom remains elusive. Endlessly so.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Chevron, General Electric and Goldman Sachs. "

(in www.realmoney.com)