Inflação nos alimentos em máximos de agosto de 2023

[Ulisses Pereira]

Mais um interessante artigo do Todd Harrison.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

"Answers I Really Wanna Know: When Will THE Stock Market Bottom Arrive?"
Todd Harrison
Nov 11, 2008 9:15 am

" In the thirteen recessions since 1929, the median S&P low has occurred 58% of the way through.




Is it safe to assume the current recession "officially" started in the fourth quarter of 2007?


The thirteen recessions since 1929 lasted on average ten months?


The longest recession ever—The Depression—lasted 44 months?


The second longest recessions—1973-1975 and 1981-1982—lasted 16 months each?


In the thirteen recessions dating back to 1929, the median S&P bottom occurred 58% of the way through the recession?


The average return from the recession's closing low to the end of the recession was 20.3% while the average return for the year following the recession was 15.9%?


Is it safe to assume the current recession "officially" started in the fourth quarter of 2007?


The thirteen recessions since 1929 lasted on average ten months?


The longest recession ever—The Depression—lasted 44 months?


The second longest recessions—1973-1975 and 1981-1982—lasted 16 months each?


In the thirteen recessions dating back to 1929, the median S&P bottom occurred 58% of the way through the recession?


The average return from the recessions' closing low to the end of the recession was 20.3% while the average return for the year following the recession was 15.9%?


Did I thank Mike O'Rourke from BTIG for this fantastic data?


If our current conundrum is on par with The Great Depression in terms of duration (44 months) and we apply the median S&P bottom (58%) while assuming it started in the fourth quarter of last year, can we extrapolate that THE bottom will arrive in the first quarter of 2010?


What makes you think we've ever seen a recession like this?


Do you think FDR knew what a derivative was?


Was over 60% of the U.S. population invested in financial assets at the time?


Was the world tied together with upwards of $500 trillion in exotic financial instruments?


As we’re in unchartered waters, shouldn’t we preserve our capital, stay out of debt, protect ourselves and save for our children?


Which is a different conversation that catching the “hit it to quit it” rallies that will inevitably litter the landscape?


Isn’t it ironic that after all the pundits declared “a new paradigm” during the dot.com daze, the housing boom, the emerging market mania and the commodity craze, we’ve actually arrived in a new paradigm after the fact?


Why should we listen to those who didn't see this coming for advice as to when it will end?


With the mainstay averages down 40% year over year, isn’t this is the medicine of time and price that long we've spoken of?

Aren't the greatest opportunities bred from the most profound obstacles?


Won’t there be profound rewards for those who properly prepare?


Shifting gears, what does it mean that yesterday’s volume was the lowest since the Friday before Labor Day?


And November volumes are about 65% of what they were in the middle of October?


Is it pervasive apathy or a bullish sign, as lower volume “re-tests” typically are?


Can the government confiscate your 401(k)?


Whatever happened to all those adjustable-rate mortgages Alan Greenspan pushed on the American public?


Europe is facing $2 trillion in debt refinancing over the next three years?


Harvard University is expecting “unprecedented” losses in its $36.9 billion endowment and will seek new sources of revenue?


Where the heck will all that money come from?


Have you taken your FREE two week trial to our Buzz & Banter for real-time commentary from the best and brightest?


Will American Express (AXP) have black, platinum, gold and green deposit slips?


How much does it suck to burn your tongue at the beginning of a good meal?


Will General Motors (GM) be A-I-Geed (AIG), Lehmanned or Wamued?


Societal acrimony? What societal acrimony?


How the heck will the president-elect prioritize his efforts with oh-so-many in need?


Is there really such a thing as an ugly pet?


Are we really only 21 days until E-Day?


And 23 short days until our annual Festivus celebration in NYC that will bring together the Minyanville community in the name of children’s education?


If the camera adds ten pounds, what’s my excuse on the other ten?


Can YOU handle the truth?

R.P."

(in www.minyanville.com)