Inflação nos alimentos em máximos de agosto de 2023

[Clinico]

Apesar do meu ingles ser bom, ás vezes tenho dificuldade em perceber o Cramer, mesmo nos programas loucos da TV, em volta lá da cozinha dele onde via sacando batatas e outros artigos que ele desencanta nas conversas dele...

Mas este artigo é claro como água! e diz o que se tem vindo a dizer aqui, vez após vez, após vez.
Stay out!

( eu já melhorei! tenho uma grande liquidez, apesar de ainda ter umas coizitas poucas - ouro, certificados petróleo e alguns bancos populares...mas burro velho não aprende)

Abraços
Clinico

[Ulisses Pereira]

"'Cheap' Is Meaningless"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
11/10/2008 9:10 AM EST

"All weekend I heard it. Stocks have gotten too cheap. Put 'em away cheap. Don't worry about 'em cheap. To which I say, stocks are only cheap if the companies make it. Stocks are only cheap if the bondholders don't claim them.

Every day I see cheap stocks. Ford (F - commentary - Cramer's Take) reported this morning. Ridiculously cheap. How cheap is Sprint (S - commentary - Cramer's Take), for heaven's sake? Did you see the Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ - commentary - Cramer's Take) numbers? That stock should show up when you enter "cheap stock" in Google. Except Las Vegas Sands (LVS - commentary - Cramer's Take) comes up.

When Warren Buffett says stocks are cheap, or Jeremy Grantham or Steve Leuthold or Jeremy Siegel, it's very heartening. You just want to go out there and buy cheap stocks like CBS (CBS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Ann Taylor (ANN - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Talbots (TLB - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Or do they mean Pepsi (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Procter (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Colgate (CL - commentary - Cramer's Take), which I like but which aren't cheap.

Or do they mean Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Qualcomm (QCOM - commentary - Cramer's Take), which aren't cheap now but could be cheap if the things they are saying -- the bleak outlooks -- aren't true.

You want cheap? How about Transocean (RIG - commentary - Cramer's Take)? How about Conoco (COP - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Occidental (OXY - commentary - Cramer's Take)? But if oil goes to $50, they aren't cheap. They are downright expensive.

Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) looks dirt-cheap, and Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) has to be the cheapest of all. But I thought Wachovia (WB - commentary - Cramer's Take) was cheap, and others thought Washington Mutual looked really cheap.


Isn't Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take) cheap at $10? It used to be at $40. Freeport-McMoRan's (FCX - commentary - Cramer's Take) as cheap as can be, until you consider Deere (DE - commentary - Cramer's Take). But if aluminum and copper and grains plummet in value, they might not be cheap.

Boeing's (BA - commentary - Cramer's Take) the cheapest in years. Until you read that Airbus sees a big decline in orders and you look at the incredibly cheap Genesis Lease (GLS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Aircastle (AYR - commentary - Cramer's Take), two big plane buyers in the mid-single digits.

Can you get cheaper than Home Depot (HD - commentary - Cramer's Take)? Look at that yield? But if housing plummets further, is the yield safe?

Centex (CTX - commentary - Cramer's Take), Lennar (LEN - commentary - Cramer's Take), KB Home (KBH - commentary - Cramer's Take), Horton (DHI - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Pulte (PHM - commentary - Cramer's Take) look so cheap they are scrumptious ... until you look at their credit lines, which make them seem downright expensive.

How could MetLife (MET - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Pru (PRU - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Hartford Financial (HIG - commentary - Cramer's Take) be so cheap? How cheap were Bear and AIG and Lehman at the end.

GM (GM - commentary - Cramer's Take) at $5?

Screaming how cheap it is?

Buffett, Siegel, Grantham, Leuthold -- they all have the luxury of saying things are cheap. Buffett can come out in an op-ed piece and say he is buying America.

I go out and recommend American stocks, what he's buying or owns -- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - commentary - Cramer's Take), Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take), Coke (KO - commentary - Cramer's Take), the rails, UnitedHealth (UNH - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- and I am dead wrong. Goldman (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take) was cheap at $120, GE (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take) at $22. Right? Didn't we buy them because he did?


How can he be so right and I when I recommend what he likes, I am dead wrong?

How can they say things are cheap when the environment is so uncertain that what's cheap today might turn out to be nonexistent later? How can they be right without looking at the obligations, the future, not just the near-term future?

"No," they would say, "those aren't the stocks we're talking about."

They are talking about the really good cheap stocks. They are talking about the S&P.

I am talking about the statistically cheapest and best stocks in the S&P on my show, and they go down all the time. Only the accidentally high yields save them.

Again, how can the graybeards see the market as cheap and not realize how much money they have lost saying and buying cheap stocks?

"Oh, but the long-term makes sense."

OK, how about I come out on my show and say, "Don't care about the next 50%, care about the next 50 years?" Is that good enough?

You see, the notion of the "cheap" stock is a luxury to talk about.

Is Siegel the best investor in the world? Grantham? Leuthold? Buffett in the last five years?


Is humility an issue here?

I would love to say that things are cheap.

I came out at Dow 11,000 and Dow 10,000 and said that I don't trust the market. It isn't working. It is broken. It is not a place to save money in for the next five years.

No matter that the market subsequently dropped about 25%, which, where I am from, is a decline worth missing considering that stocks on average have gone up about 7% year over year, making it hard to make that money back in the next four years. No matter that savings are being wiped out left and right in cheap stocks. No matter that we all know the fundamentals are the worst since the Depression.

My call to sell was the most reviled of my career. I have received more hatred for it, more scorn, whole ad campaigns against me, a vanishing act on major TV shows. I am a pariah.

I guess I should have said to stay the course at Dow 11,000 and Dow 10,000. I should have said how cheap things are.

I would be loved.

The issue?

I would be wrong.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco, Deere, Freeport-McMoRan, GE, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Pepsi, Procter & Gamble, Qualcomm and Wachovia. "

(in www.realmoney.com)