Todd Harrison: "Sixteen Candles"
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Sendo as eleições presidenciais dos EUA no próximo dia 4 de novembro, penso que se refere ao dia seguinte, em que se terá um novo Presidente Eleito (provavelmente o Obama) e uma nova realidade, acabando com as especulações e ansiedades correntes sobre a direcção provavel dos acontecimentos.
Interessante mesmo é a referência a um possivel "evento" geopolitico, que possa acontecer até essa data, com elevado risco de guerra (WW3).
Será porque esse é um dos argumentos que a campanha de Mccain tem usado para "bater" em Obama, e que o presente inquilino da Casa Branca, se possa tentado, a desencadear um tal evento, nos ultimos dias da sua presidência, de maneira a ajudar o candidato do seu partido? Não sei, mas que tem havido algums sinais preeocupantes no médio oriente, lá isso tem.
Interessante mesmo é a referência a um possivel "evento" geopolitico, que possa acontecer até essa data, com elevado risco de guerra (WW3).
Será porque esse é um dos argumentos que a campanha de Mccain tem usado para "bater" em Obama, e que o presente inquilino da Casa Branca, se possa tentado, a desencadear um tal evento, nos ultimos dias da sua presidência, de maneira a ajudar o candidato do seu partido? Não sei, mas que tem havido algums sinais preeocupantes no médio oriente, lá isso tem.
- Mensagens: 205
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Todd Harrison: "Sixteen Candles"
"Monday Morning Quarterback: Sixteen Candles"
Todd Harrison
Oct 20, 2008 9:40 am
" Election Day is right around the corner.
Sweet Sixteen. It’s a time of innocence and a coming of age. As we power up a fresh five-session set, it’s also the countdown to new leadership for the United States of America.
At the beginning of 2008, we offered Ten Themes in Minyanville that we believed would come to fruition this calendar year.
Nestled in that discussion was the notion that:
“One of the more troubling dynamics last year was the societal acrimony that manifested despite the market probing all-time highs. We were, by conventional metrics, enjoying an economic expansion yet nobody seemed to feel like we were in a bull market.
If the collective stress was that high in a “good” market, what will happen when the other side of the business cycle arrives? We’ve already entered recession, albeit one that’s been masked by the lower dollar and hidden with economic numbers skewed by a slimming margin of society.
This dynamic will inevitably manifest into the elections, both stateside and abroad, as political infighting and geopolitical tensions mount.”
With just over two weeks until ballots are cast, we’ve entered a risky stretch for financial markets and the world at large. Social mood and risk appetites shape the tape and global tensions are percolating at an accelerated pace.
While I continue to operate with a sense that we may have seen the 2008 trading low (not to be confused with a market bottom), the onus is on us to respect the other side of that ride. Risk management over reward chasing has been a mainstay mantra in Minyanville.
On Friday’s Buzz & Banter, Minyan Peter offered the following thought:
“Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) canceled its credit line to Pdvesa, the National Petroleum Company of …and it may be coincidence that RBS is dropping its line to the Venezuelans less than a week after the injection of capital by the British government.
Credit is the oxygen to commerce. Todd offered long ago that the next war would be over water—does liquidity count?”
Building upon his missive, cutting off credit to the emerging world isn’t in the best interests of recently nationalized world banks. If derivatives are the weapons of mass destruction, liquidity could be the neutron bomb. Pull the pin and it sucks the life out of the global economy.
Couple that with crude 50% lower than where it was earlier this year and the Middle East protecting their interests (it was reported over the weekend that OPEC may cut production by 2 million barrels per day), the pain trade of “higher crude and lower equities” may begin to take shape.
While that may occur without “something serious” happening on the geopolitical front before the election, my antennae continue to vibe that something disturbing is afoot. It’s my wish that we arrive at November 5th without incident but the next few weeks may be the highest risk of the start—or continuation—of WW3 that we’ve seen in our lifetimes.
Minyanville prides itself on presenting the financial news you need to know before you know you need it. We’re often early, as evidenced by the warnings of debt and derivatives in 2003, concerns regarding “socioeconomic malaise entirely more depressing than a recession” in 2006 and a litany of forward-looking calls including the risks to Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual, the short side of crude (into the highs) and the potential for a car crash into September, going so far as to ask whether “the big one was coming.”
This particular “sense,” for lack of a better word, is one I sincerely hope passes without coming to bear. Given our mission is to provoke—rather than shape—thought, I wanted to share the fare so Minyans have it on their radar. We’ll walk the road together, counting down the days, and assimilate fresh data points in real-time as they occur.
T-16 days, Minyans, tick tock, tick tock, tick tock…
Random Thoughts
Barron’s noted over the weekend that for the week ending October 14th, insider buying trumped selling by a three to one margin. That, along with the emergence of M&A—if and when—is bullish on the margin. Please note that the absence of IPO’s has now hit ten weeks, the longest such stretch since 1980.
I continue to feel that there will be a “seismic shift” in the world reserve currency. European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny seems to agree, floating the notion of a “tri-polar” global currency system in Asia, Europe and the (which could, I suppose, merge the Loonie, Peso and Dollar as a North American currency).
Credit—as measured by LIBOR and TED spreads—continues to move in a more constructive direction but spreads remain elevated by historical standards.
The December 4th Minyanville Festivus—our Frienassaince Festival to benefit children— is quickly approaching on December 4th. Lock your spot for the holiday trot and let’s belly up for a great cause.
My Raiders did everything in their power to lose in the fourth quarter again but squeaked one out in the Black Hole. It’s true what they say about reduced expectations—the grass is greener and the wine is sweeter after a long drought.
Professor Bennet Sedacca posted the following thoughts on the Buzz & Banter this morning:
Credit Market Update
Bennet Sedacca
8:37 AM
I just saw a run of offerings of some of the 'chosen' ones.
5 year General Electric (GE) trading +480.
10 year Morgan Stanley (MS) trading at 10%.
10 year Goldman Sachs (GS) trading 83 bid, 87 offered ($ price).
10 year Bank of (BAC) +375.
No Virginia , the credit market hasn't thawed. One would think that given the amount of intervention/interruption that bonds would be trading much better.
But sadly, they are not. Until this changes, we stay cautious, although I must say that if i had a 10 year time horizon and never had to mark my bonds to market every day, some of these are appealing.
As I continue to “trade around” my book, my current exposure includes starter positions (expecting to add lower) in the FXI (china) and EEM (emerging markets) and energy space exposure via Weatherford (WFT) and BHP Billiton (BHP). I will continue to trade—and manage risk—accordingly as per our eyes on the Buzz & Banter.
S&P 910, 900 and 840—in that order—act as defined risk for those looking for a technical context.
R.P."
(in www.minyanville.com)
Todd Harrison
Oct 20, 2008 9:40 am
" Election Day is right around the corner.
Sweet Sixteen. It’s a time of innocence and a coming of age. As we power up a fresh five-session set, it’s also the countdown to new leadership for the United States of America.
At the beginning of 2008, we offered Ten Themes in Minyanville that we believed would come to fruition this calendar year.
Nestled in that discussion was the notion that:
“One of the more troubling dynamics last year was the societal acrimony that manifested despite the market probing all-time highs. We were, by conventional metrics, enjoying an economic expansion yet nobody seemed to feel like we were in a bull market.
If the collective stress was that high in a “good” market, what will happen when the other side of the business cycle arrives? We’ve already entered recession, albeit one that’s been masked by the lower dollar and hidden with economic numbers skewed by a slimming margin of society.
This dynamic will inevitably manifest into the elections, both stateside and abroad, as political infighting and geopolitical tensions mount.”
With just over two weeks until ballots are cast, we’ve entered a risky stretch for financial markets and the world at large. Social mood and risk appetites shape the tape and global tensions are percolating at an accelerated pace.
While I continue to operate with a sense that we may have seen the 2008 trading low (not to be confused with a market bottom), the onus is on us to respect the other side of that ride. Risk management over reward chasing has been a mainstay mantra in Minyanville.
On Friday’s Buzz & Banter, Minyan Peter offered the following thought:
“Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) canceled its credit line to Pdvesa, the National Petroleum Company of …and it may be coincidence that RBS is dropping its line to the Venezuelans less than a week after the injection of capital by the British government.
Credit is the oxygen to commerce. Todd offered long ago that the next war would be over water—does liquidity count?”
Building upon his missive, cutting off credit to the emerging world isn’t in the best interests of recently nationalized world banks. If derivatives are the weapons of mass destruction, liquidity could be the neutron bomb. Pull the pin and it sucks the life out of the global economy.
Couple that with crude 50% lower than where it was earlier this year and the Middle East protecting their interests (it was reported over the weekend that OPEC may cut production by 2 million barrels per day), the pain trade of “higher crude and lower equities” may begin to take shape.
While that may occur without “something serious” happening on the geopolitical front before the election, my antennae continue to vibe that something disturbing is afoot. It’s my wish that we arrive at November 5th without incident but the next few weeks may be the highest risk of the start—or continuation—of WW3 that we’ve seen in our lifetimes.
Minyanville prides itself on presenting the financial news you need to know before you know you need it. We’re often early, as evidenced by the warnings of debt and derivatives in 2003, concerns regarding “socioeconomic malaise entirely more depressing than a recession” in 2006 and a litany of forward-looking calls including the risks to Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE), Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual, the short side of crude (into the highs) and the potential for a car crash into September, going so far as to ask whether “the big one was coming.”
This particular “sense,” for lack of a better word, is one I sincerely hope passes without coming to bear. Given our mission is to provoke—rather than shape—thought, I wanted to share the fare so Minyans have it on their radar. We’ll walk the road together, counting down the days, and assimilate fresh data points in real-time as they occur.
T-16 days, Minyans, tick tock, tick tock, tick tock…
Random Thoughts
Barron’s noted over the weekend that for the week ending October 14th, insider buying trumped selling by a three to one margin. That, along with the emergence of M&A—if and when—is bullish on the margin. Please note that the absence of IPO’s has now hit ten weeks, the longest such stretch since 1980.
I continue to feel that there will be a “seismic shift” in the world reserve currency. European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny seems to agree, floating the notion of a “tri-polar” global currency system in Asia, Europe and the (which could, I suppose, merge the Loonie, Peso and Dollar as a North American currency).
Credit—as measured by LIBOR and TED spreads—continues to move in a more constructive direction but spreads remain elevated by historical standards.
The December 4th Minyanville Festivus—our Frienassaince Festival to benefit children— is quickly approaching on December 4th. Lock your spot for the holiday trot and let’s belly up for a great cause.
My Raiders did everything in their power to lose in the fourth quarter again but squeaked one out in the Black Hole. It’s true what they say about reduced expectations—the grass is greener and the wine is sweeter after a long drought.
Professor Bennet Sedacca posted the following thoughts on the Buzz & Banter this morning:
Credit Market Update
Bennet Sedacca
8:37 AM
I just saw a run of offerings of some of the 'chosen' ones.
5 year General Electric (GE) trading +480.
10 year Morgan Stanley (MS) trading at 10%.
10 year Goldman Sachs (GS) trading 83 bid, 87 offered ($ price).
10 year Bank of (BAC) +375.
No Virginia , the credit market hasn't thawed. One would think that given the amount of intervention/interruption that bonds would be trading much better.
But sadly, they are not. Until this changes, we stay cautious, although I must say that if i had a 10 year time horizon and never had to mark my bonds to market every day, some of these are appealing.
As I continue to “trade around” my book, my current exposure includes starter positions (expecting to add lower) in the FXI (china) and EEM (emerging markets) and energy space exposure via Weatherford (WFT) and BHP Billiton (BHP). I will continue to trade—and manage risk—accordingly as per our eyes on the Buzz & Banter.
S&P 910, 900 and 840—in that order—act as defined risk for those looking for a technical context.
R.P."
(in www.minyanville.com)
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