De bestial a besta? Novo Nordisk perde 80 mil milhões numa semana

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Tech's Still Only Good for a Rental"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
10/9/2008 8:00 AM EDT

"Will people believe IBM? Will people think earnings aren't falling off a cliff? Or will they simply believe IBM isn't fessing up or hasn't been hit by it yet. Because if they do believe that, you can see how Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- both of which have said they are doing well -- are way too low, and you can make a case for Qualcomm (QCOM - commentary - Cramer's Take), which I still think is a great 2009 story off of 4G.

But will it matter if we are going to have a recession in 2009?

So many stocks are pricing in something, meaning they are pricing in a mean season, so you can argue that they can be purchased now and held onto. But let's say IBM hasn't seen it yet. What would you be doing, making a bet that they will never see it? Making a bet that the stock is already where it will be in a recession (because while we busy ourselves every day with taking off the depression, we can't take off the recession)?

Or you would be making a bet that if they haven't seen it yet, they are never going to see it -- a General Mills (GIS - commentary - Cramer's Take) bet, so to speak.

I think Cisco, Qualcomm and H-P are higher-quality companies than IBM. If IBM does well now, these others should do very well. So I will hold them and expect to get some lift. If you own IBM I would hold it, too. We are oversold and the negativity is so thick that I have to believe some buyers will come in even up 3 or 4.

But until we can see some break in the decline here of the worlds' economies, you can only rent tech, even the best tech, because we are more likely to be in a 2000-2003 Nazz situation than in a brief cyclical downturn.

Random musings: How much is AIG (AIG - commentary - Cramer's Take) really on the hook for? I sense that between its CDO insurance and its credit default swap writing, it could be $500 billion. That's not a new figure for me, but last night's increase in the federal credit line tells you that this rogue operation was probably, with Lehman, the most reckless of the financials in America. Although with Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Washington Mutual, that's no sure thing.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cisco, Hewlett-Packard, General Mills and Qualcomm. "

(in www.realmoney.com)