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[Ulisses Pereira]

"This Brutal Market Has Shades of 1987"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
10/8/2008 6:08 PM EDT


"This market is so much like 1987, it freaks me out. In that market, in the week leading up to the crash and the crash week itself, you would enter an order to buy a stock when it was up 2, get the report that you bought it up 3, and then it would be down 2. That's exactly what happened with Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take) today. Exactly.




In that market you felt ripped off like you wouldn't believe. Every day. You would try to buy when the market sold off and never get the low or even lower prices, and you would feel like you could do nothing right.

It ground you up and spit you out. In that market you would get good news, and it would last long enough to draw you in, and then it would spit you out -- like Morgan Stanley (MS - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Now, I have to admit that I thought the market would finish up today. I figured it almost had to, because in the end it is still a big deal that we got a coordinated cut, even if it wasn't bigger.

Didn't matter.

I also figured that with credit markets actually beginning to thaw -- and I am talking about what Tony Crescenzi talks about -- we could catch a break. And the trade where hedge funds hedge their individual stock names with and S&P future shorts, the one Doug outlined, should have been good for more of a squeeze than we got. That seemed like a reasonable reason to go up, not to mention the minus 10 reading on the oscillator and only 25% bulls.

You didn't get those kinds of readings very often in the last 20 years and not bounce.

In fact I can only recall one of them: the week before the crash of 1987.


Tomorrow (isto foi publicado ontem )the short ban will come off. Tomorrow I presume that someone will try to break Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take). I figure someone will try to break General Electric (GE - commentary - Cramer's Take). Someone will try to push down Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take). These are all free-short-fire zones, if not tomorrow than Friday.

It is why, again, I reiterate, the operative models are 2000-2003 Nasdaq Composite and 1987.

Alas, I am heartened that the central banks no longer think inflation is the issue. I just hope they keep their eyes off gold for a moment, because it is going to go up, as there will always be people who believe the Fed should tighten, and they will buy gold. There are enough of them to take the precious metal up.

Why should you care? Because an aggressive ease -- which they refused to forecast, and all they had to say was "We will not stop cutting until business is revived and the deflationary spiral is broken" -- will eliminate the 1932 scenario.

Considering that I think 1987 and 2000-2003 NDX are on the table, you might not think there is much to be thankful for. But that's wrong, because the market came back from 1987, and in the end the 2000-2003 experience left you a lot of bull markets away from tech to play in. "

(in www.realmoney.com)