Incerteza global já se reflete nos lucros das cotadas da bolsa

[salvadorveiga]

Deixo aqui o relato de uma newsletter, e que por curiosidade Portugal esta' no topo, pelas razoes mais negativas =/

August 29, 2008

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You might make more money, but are you richer? Today’s definitive answer
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Sell in September? History shows you might be in the red next month
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Market led higher by an unlikely cast of characters
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Chuck Butler with a currency buying opportunity
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Plus, Gunner’s latest solar energy play… probably not what you’re expecting


As if the savings rate weren’t already a problem, personal income for Americans tumbled in July by its largest measure in three years. The Commerce Department announced today that earnings fell nearly 1% during the month, the biggest drop since Katrina.

At the same time, year-over-year inflation rose to 4.5%... by the government’s own calculation. That’s the fastest pace since George Bush I was begging voters to read his lips.

Hmnn… dwindling income… rising inflation… not exactly the most succulent ingredients for a wealth-producing stew.


“Real gross domestic income (GDI) has contracted for two consecutive quarters,” reports John Williams.

“Technically, GDI, which is the income-side equivalent to the consumption-side gross domestic product (GDP), is now in recession.Traditionally, two consecutive quarterly contractions in GDP have constituted a formal recession. The GDI contracted in the fourth and first quarters.”


The Economist just published this chart, too:



Nearly a quarter of all Americans who answered the poll say they have no discretionary income -- second only to Portugal in the Western economies.

Aren’t we supposed to be growing our way out of the low savings and high debt scenario?


Heh, but we’re all just whistling by the graveyard… consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high this month. That’s according to the latest from the University of Michigan today. Its monthly gauge of consumer glee rose to a score of 63 this month, higher than expected. But we’re still just 13 points above the record low, set in 1980.


No worries for the stock market, either. The major U.S. indexes all raced ahead yesterday, led by the full cast of unsavory characters: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the bond insurers. Better-than-anticipated earnings from luxury goods purveyors Tiffany and Zales and an unexpected boost from the airlines also helped push the Dow up 1.8%. The S&P 500 was close behind, at 1.5%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.2%.


Despite being 90% below its all-time high today, Fannie has managed to rally over 60% this week. Together, Fannie and Freddie eked out $3 billion in bond sales this week at slightly more reasonable yields.

Traders are also backing up the truck on word of yet another executive shakedown. Fannie fired its CFO, chief risk officer and chief business officer. Of course, that strategy worked really well in 2004, when they canned Franklin Raines, didn’t it?

What’s that definition of insanity again? When you keep trying the same things, but expect different results… hmmmnnn.


Financial Guarantee Insurance Corp. (FGIC) -- one of MBIA’s rivals -- closed a deal with MBIA for $200 billion worth of bonds. MBIA picked up the portfolio for a penny on the dollar.

Shares of bond insurers MBIA and Ambac soared themselves yesterday, by as much as 30%.


If you’ve got the cajones to buy Fannie and MBIA these days, here’s a word of advice: Take the gains while you can get them. September is traditionally a tough month on investors:


Since 1950, September has averaged a loss of nearly 1% in the market’s largest stocks. The past 28 years have fared worse still.


Lehman Bros. announced today it’ll be firing another 1,500 employees.


The dollar index is up to 77.1 today, about a half a point higher than yesterday’s low. The dollar got a nice kick in the pants from yesterday’s GPD “surprise." After a scant spat of profit taking this morning, the dollar is back on the rise. The euro is down a cent, to $1.57.


“The Chinese yuan will decline in August for the first time since China dropped the dollar peg, in 2005,” reports our currency counselor Chuck Butler. Indeed, the yuan is down about 1/10th cent this month. That movement clearly bucks the trend:

“I told you this could happen as we approached the election period in the U.S.,” Chuck chastises us.“The focus is on getting elected and not banging on the Chinese to allow their currency more flexibility.

“But we don't have to get all full of panic and rush to sell our renminbi. This is simply a bump in the road. China's still growing, and it will need a stronger currency to help fight the inflation pressures of that growth. While the U.S. is looking the other way, the Chinese have taken this opportunity to slow down the appreciation rate of the renminbi!”


Gold, on the other hand, is clutching to its recent highs like a 2-year-old with a pet stuffed pig. The spot price began the day at $835.


Hurricane Gustav is staying the course. The bold fellow is expected to hit the Gulf oil patch on Monday. And the Russia/Georgia conflict still has traders keeping an eye on the other side of the world. But until anything actually happens, no one’s making a move. Oil is biding its time at $117 today.

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