Irmãos Martins estão de saída da Martifer

[Expat]

Tambem gostei muito de ler este artigo.
E adorei quando apareceu no filme do Iron Man
Se tivesse seguido os conselhos dele a algumas semanas atras tinha ja ganho algum dinheiro pois a VISA que ele recomendou vender depois disso deu um trambolhao bem bom, mas com os resultados de hoje ja voltou a recuperar e amanha espero que suba mais um pouco.
Bons negocios

[Dwer]

O melhor texto do Cramer que já li.

[Pata-Hari]

mas aparece um momento da entrevista que passou ontem neste clip, acho eu...

[Crómio]

Bom artigo, mais uns pontos a ter em conta na observação dos mercados.

Em relacção ao showman, não consegui encontrar essa do Conan O'Brian porque já foi retirada (direitos?) mas encontrei este apanhado revelador do calibre quer de analista, quer de entertainer...


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Abraço

[Pata-Hari]

Olha, eu acho um apanhado muitissimo interessante de análise de comportamento de mercado. Mas concordo contigo que ele é mais do que avariado, é muito avariado! ontem deu uma entrevista no late show do brian não-sei-o-quê, de chorar a rir. Ainda melhor que analista, ele é comediante e actor.

[Crómio]

In short: how can you tell which way a stock is going to move before it happens?

Não li que já não aguento com sono, mas este tipo é um show man das stocks...

Parte-me todo com as adivinhações exaltadas...
E agora vem ensinar a adivinhar... isto vai tudo por aí abaixoooo!!!

Não é que seja parvo de todo mas aquilo faz muito barulho

Abraço e prometo que para a próxima não venho dizer parvoíces

[atomez]

How to Spot Moves Early

By Jim Cramer, author of Action Alerts PLUS


Introduction

How do you spot a bottom before it happens?

How can you call a top, in a stock or the whole market, so you can get out before things tumble down?

How do you know when money is about to move from one sector to another?

In short: how can you tell which way a stock is going to move before it happens?

If you can spot a big move in a stock or the whole market before it happens, you’ve got it made.

Anticipating a Market Bottom

So how do we see a bottom coming? If there's one thing I think I've done best in my 25-year career on Wall Street, it's spotting bottoms in the market. Understand, real bottoms don't happen all that often; but when they do, if you call them correctly, you can stand to make a small, or not so small, fortune. Bottoms are great because they represent fantastic buying opportunities with not very much risk, as long as your bottom call is right.

So how do you call a bottom? There are no techniques, no formulas, and no real hardand-fast rules for doing this well. But, let me tell you, there is a wrong way to do it, and then I'll help you get it right. A lot of people want to rely on pure technical analysis — which is Wall Street gibberish for looking at a chart of where a stock has traded, and predicting what it will do in the future.

But technical analysis, as they say, is always right until its wrong.

These analysts look at a chart, see that a stock has been knocked way down and then stopped moving. These chartists, even the best ones, are often wrong. Sometimes a stock that goes into free-fall and then stops is only taking a breather before sprinting toward zero, because its earnings are falling off a cliff or it’s saddled with debt.

The chart is not enough, you need to look at the fundamentals, too.

I've never seen a stock bottom out based on earnings reports either. The thing about a bottom is that if too many people see it coming, it won't happen. A bottom is a contrarian call.

The other crucial fact about bottoms is that they rarely happen all at once. Usually the market bottoms in thirds, sector by sector, over a period of days if not weeks. That’s not always the case, but it’s how you should approach a bottom.

Now, here's how I assess investment bottoms, or really, investment mega-bottoms in the market. You want to see three things when looking for a bottom.

1) Market sentiment must be bad — front page of The New York Times bad. When the malaise reaches there, that's a terrific indicator that we're nearing a bottom. You can also look at the Investors Intelligence survey of money managers. When you have a majority of bears, that's a good sign you're close to a bottom.

2) When you see mutual funds pulling out of the market in a significant way, that's another signal that a bottom might be nigh. Understand, to correctly spot a bottom, you need to be right when almost everybody else in the market is wrong. You also want to be looking for capitulation from the bulls who were holding out hope. When they give up, you get a massive "crescendo sell-off." You'll see lots of volume and sinking prices as the last hold-outs give up. You will not have a bottom until these investors have thrown in the towel. A crescendo bottom is one of those rare times when the market bottoms all at once, not in thirds, and you can really back up the truck and start buying.

3) Finally, big bottoms usually have a catalyst — when market sentiment is in the gutter, or when even the most bullish of the bulls are off sulking like Achilles in his tent. On top of that, you get some bad news for the market, maybe it's just a subprime lending crisis, or a Fed rate-hike, something that's not a catastrophe, but has a widespread effect on the market.

The last two times we went to war with Iraq I indentified and profited from exquisite bottoms. Understand, the market hates nothing more than uncertainty. In the 24 hours leading up to both wars, I managed to catch great bottoms because investors couldn't handle the total lack of certainty. Even though I knew these wars were going to eliminate all the uncertainty once they happened, everybody else couldn't have been more nervous — so I got to buy up a lot of stocks on the cheap.

Bottom line: Don’t be discouraged when you see these three things. Don't give up when everyone else is giving up. It's a bottom, and you want to be the only one who knows it so that you can buy up stocks for next to nothing and then relax as they start to rise.

Now that we’ve been through bottoms, I want to talk about something that could be even more important: tops.

Getting Out at the Top

What exactly is a top? It's when a stock or the whole market reaches some price and then comes tumbling down. If you try to ride out a top you could lose all your gains and then some — think 2000. And round-tripping a winning position, where all your hard-earned profits evaporate and the position even turns into a loss, is the worst feeling that an investor can experience.

People don't like to talk about tops, not on Wall Street and especially not in the financialmedia. When things are good, boy, do we ever hate to talk about a top. For a lot of the institutions, probably your broker, sell is a dirty word. A top is never a top; it's just a temporary breakdown, some mild turbulence, that will eventually beovercome.

When I first got to Goldman I remember asking a co-worker when I should tell a client to sell. This is what all the graybeards would tell me: when the stock gets downgraded, that's when you sell. Who wants to sell after a downgrade, after the stock has already hit its top, after it's come down? Not me.

All the time you're told to buy and hold stocks, or to buy and hold an index fund. You know I think this stuff is garbage — I believe in buy and homework. And one of the biggest reasons for that is the existence of tops. You can't fight the tape, and the fact is that the market moves in cycles.

And that's why being able to spot a top is important. How would you have felt if you followed the conventional wisdom, and you bought and held a standard S&P 500 index fund through the crash in 2000? Pretty terrible, I bet. But if you'd been able to spot that top, you could've sold and escaped some serious pain.

These things hurt; they're a key reason buy and hold doesn't work, and, as I've said before, they are the bane of investing. So how do we see them coming and get out before the top hits?

Sooner or later every stock, every market, reaches a point where it can go no higher, and, in fact, starts going a whole lot lower. We know this will happen because it has happened historically without fail. If you own a stock and that stock keeps chugging along, going higher and higher, at a certain point you know you should get out. But who wants to sell a stock that's been a proven winner, a real money maker? Nobody, that's who.

Don't get caught up with selling at the highest price, just like the odds are miniscule that you'll buy at the absolute nadir. That's why you have to sell when you see a top coming. And in order to do that you need to be honest with yourself, to admit that there will be a top and you'd better be looking for it.

But how do you know when that top is coming? I have five key tells.

One of the best ways you can tell that a stock, especially one that's had a lot of momentum, is played out is when the bears start disappearing. When all the analysts who cover the stock have either none or very few sells left, that's a great sign in a momentum stock that you're about to run smack into a top. The reason? There are no bears left to convert. Everyone who wants the stock owns it, and that means the buying will stop soon. With no more buying, you've got a top — time to sell.

The second reason to abandon a stock, even one you know and like, is competition. You might not want to believe the competition matters, especially if you've got a history with your stock, but you need to be objective. The only way you can tell that the competition is about to come in and destroy your company's business is by being vigilant. The price of profits is eternal vigilance. It's not enough to merely do homework on your stock, you need to monitor the whole sector. You need to make sure there aren't any up-and-comers ready to gobble up market share and send your stock hurtling down. I'd say a solid 70% of the tops I've seen was caused by competition. Competition, as much as anything else, is the reason it's imperative that you spend one hour per week doing homework. Otherwise, I can practically guarantee that you will get blindsided, your stock will hit a top, and you will lose money.

The third cue is accounting irregularities. I say this in Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World, and I'm saying it again now: accounting irregularities equal a sell. No matter what. I don't care what you think of a company. I don't care how well it's worked for you in the past. When you see a company messing around with its financials you know it's in trouble. It's not just that lying about the numbers is illegal. It's that the only companies that screw with their numbers are the ones that can't make them. However, not every company with an accounting scandal is an Enron waiting to happen — although I'll note that if you'd sold Enron when the first news of their accounting fraud broke, you could've made it out of the stock with some of your money intact, rather than with nothing.

The next way you can see a top coming a mile away is overexpansion. I like growth. I recognize that growth is an addiction on Wall Street — they can't get enough of it. They love acquisitions and rapid expansion, and those are the easiest ways to make growth happen. Sometimes an acquisition is great, but sometimes it's a problem —a sign of overexpansion, a sign you should get out. The same with frenetic store openings, or office expansions. It's hard to execute these things properly, and if a company can't pull it off, your stock will end up peaking rather than going higher.

The last sign of an impending top is government action. The government, at the federal or the state level, can do more to hurt a company than any competitor. How do you spot this kind of top? Check out the front pages of The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today and The Washington Post. I start my day with them, electronically, inserting my stocks' names in their search engines to see what articles come up. Don't just stick to the Business section, because it never pays enough attention to Washington.

Bottom line: if you want to spot a top and get out before it happens, watch for an absence of bears, competition, accounting irregularities, overexpansion, and government intervention. Easier said than done, I know; but these are the issues that will trip up a stock when folks say that it's "priced for perfection."

Making Moves Ahead of a Sector Rotation

Spotting a sector rotation, when money moves from one sector or group of sectors into another because of the business cycle, is of the utmost importance. It's one of the key moves you need to spot before it happens if you want to make money in the market.

Fifty percent of how a stock moves depends upon the performance of the sector it's in. If you can call the sector, you can call half the gains or losses in a given stock. Why is this true? Because most of the big fund managers are committed to sector-based thinking, and they're the buyers and sellers who set prices.

This isn't complicated. You've got two kinds of companies out there. Cyclical businesses do well when the economy is growing fast, when the Fed has rates low, but they don't do so well when the economy slows down. These cyclical businesses include airlines, autos, raw materials, consumer durables, heavy equipment, that kind of thing.

Then you've got your secular stocks. In addition to not keeping the Sabbath, these companies aren't sensitive to the underlying strength or weakness of the economy. So how do you spot these sector rotations before they start moving the stocks? How do you buy the seculars before they go higher, and the same with the cyclicals? Easy.

At the top of the cycle, before you think a downturn is coming, maybe because the Fed is raising rates, you load up on your secular stocks. At the bottom, you swap out for some beaten-up cyclicals. Let me repeat: when the economy is humming along with high growth, you sell cyclicals and buy secular stocks. When our GDP growth is in the gutter, but you think it's done going down, that's the time to load up on cyclicals.

The reason this is actually difficult, the reason you can make money off this playbook, is that it's very counter-intuitive. When cyclical stocks start to bottom, everyone cuts their earnings estimates for them. Remember, this is the bottom of the cycle and the companies are suffering. So, the estimates get slashed, but the company has hit bottom. It won't go much lower.

That makes these stocks look "expensive," because it's not the price we care about, it's the price-to-earnings multiple. When these companies are at their most "expensive" at the bottom of the cycle, you have to buy. You buy because you know that their earnings are going to increase as the economy picks up, and you'll never be able to buy them so low after we get a little steam.

Bottom line: play defense. Buy secular stocks at the top of the cycle, and go on offense with cyclicals when the economy is so bad that you need to take away the tie and the shoelaces. Don't get killed by the idiots out there who can't think a little counter-intuitively.

You watch the indicators, you stay disciplined, and the rest of the market will follow you. That's the situation you want to be in. The lead dog might feel lonely, but he's got the best view.

Now you know the playbook for being a market oracle, for looking into the crystal ball and spotting moves before they happen. You can call bottoms, tops and, most important, the holy grail — sector rotations. You've got your edge.