Investidores querem auditor a fixar preço da OPA à Martifer

[J.Smith]

Sim eu sei, mas esse topico do MarcoAntonioé em relaçao aos participantes do caldeirao, ao que me estou a referir tem a ver com alem fronteiras, com as noticias que saiem, previsao de resultados etc.

Abraço

[vold]

J. Smith o MarcoAntónio abre um tópico desses todas as semanas, com poll para permitir registar as opiniões dos participantes.

o desta semana já está aberto BULL/BEAR caldeirao semana 23

[J.Smith]

Further job losses could dash recovery hopes

Any notion that the economy has turned a corner toward recovery is likely to be dashed in the coming week by weak economic numbers on job growth, household wealth, auto sales, construction spending, and the factory sector, economists said.

The first week of the month is always the busiest, with two of the most important monthly indicators scheduled: the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday and the Institute for Supply Management index for manufacturing on Monday. Both indicators are expected to show a sluggish economy.

"Indicators as a whole are going to be tilted on the downside," wrote Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, economists for Global Insight.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak twice, including a remote appearance at a major international monetary policy in Barcelona.

Payrolls

Nonfarm payrolls will get the most attention. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch see payrolls falling by 50,000 in May, worse than the 20,000 lost in April and about average for the monthly losses this year.

It would be the fifth straight decline in payrolls.
The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.1% or perhaps 5.2% from 5% in April.

Job growth has been weak, but not as weak as it typically is during the first months of recession. Initial jobless claims have averaged about 370,000 per week, instead of the 400,000 or more that's typical.

"This reflects the fact that much of the non-financial corporate sector did not over-hire during this business cycle -- nonfarm payroll growth was only about two-thirds as fast as during the 1990s expansion - and therefore has less need to slash payrolls now that sales growth has slowed," wrote economists for Lehman Bros.

Lehman economists said expected job losses were likely concentrated in construction, manufacturing and retail. "Construction employment has still not fully adjusted to the 57% decline in housing starts."

Construction spending declined 0.5% in April after a 1.1% decrease in March, economists say. Commercial construction is beginning to slow, lagging behind the collapse in home building and the slowdown in the economy. The construction data will be released on Monday at the same time the ISM index is released.

Manufacturing

The ISM is expected to be nearly unchanged at 48.7% in May vs. 48.6% in April, the economists say. At that level, the ISM shows a contraction in manufacturing activity, but not the collapse normally seen in recessions.

The auto sector is weighing on manufacturing. Motor vehicle sales, especially of the trucks Detroit has found so profitable in the past, are expected to fall yet again in May when they're reported by the automakers on Tuesday.

But exports are growing. "The weak dollar coupled with solid global activity has helped manufacturing hold up better than expected," wrote economists for Wachovia.

New orders are weaker than inventories for the first time since 2001, noted economists for Credit Suisse.

Falling home prices have sapped the net worth of Americans. On Thursday, the Fed will report on the wealth and borrowing of the economy in its quarterly flow of funds report. Net worth dropped at a 3.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter, and likely accelerated in the first quarter.

The report will also detail how households and businesses are coping with the severe credit crunch stemming from the collapse of structured financing.



Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

[J.Smith]

Meus caros forenses,

Surgiu-me a ideia de criar um topico com o objectivo de mostrar sentimento e o que se espera dos mercados para a semana seguinte. Para nao falar que tambem é bom assunto para discutir e aprender com a opinião de todos, o que dizem?

Coming Week: Bulls Grow Louder

On Friday, the Labor Department will release information on the unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls. On Thursday, initial jobless claims come out. Preceding those both will be the ADP employment report on Wednesday.

All those numbers are expected to weaken, but now that the economy is starting to look like it's escaped with positive gross domestic product growth in both the first and the second quarters of the year, investors are taking heart.

"You probably have a bias going into this now where people are starting to believe the economy may be better than expected," says Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management.

"What comes out of the employment reports next week sets the tone for the month. If you have numbers that are woefully weak, you could have some pretty big adjustments, while if reports come in as expected or better, you are probably going to see big upward moves in the stock market."

Paulsen says he's also going to be watching the Institute for Supply Management report on the health of the manufacturing economy, which comes out on Monday.

Ted Weisberg, floor trader at Seaport Securities, agrees that there's a bullish tone to the market activity heading into next week.

"I think the market in general is acting remarkably well in light of all the negative economic news," he says. "Most of the major indexes are bouncing up against their 200-day moving averages, and a move above those would be technically very positive."

However, Weisberg cautions that "there is a real risk that negative surprises are out there." He notes that "slower growth and the prospect of higher interest rates is not a positive scenario for the stock market."

He also says that last week may have skewed positive because it ended the trading month of May, and "there's a tendency to mark things up when you get to the end of the month."

Stocks did enjoy a good 4-day week last week, which was shortened by Monday's Memorial Day holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.3% over the four trading sessions to 12,638.32, while the S&P 500 gained 1.8% to 1400.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index added a full 3.2%, ending the week at 2522.66.

Shawn Price, portfolio manager at Navellier Calculated Investing, says there's one thing all the market bears didn't count on: the global growth story.

"The weak dollar, combined with strong international growth, means there's a huge global buildout going on," he says. "I don't think analysts have the mechanisms to gauge why growth is so strong," because "they don't have all the networks and channels to analyze" the global factors in addition to the domestic ones.

"Anything outside of housing and, to a large extent, the financial sector, is in a pretty healthy situation," Price says.

In housing itself, data continue to come in weaker and weaker even as optimism about the broader economy takes root. Tuesday holds earnings news from Toll Brothers and Hovnanian Enterprises, both of which should provide a progress update on the housing downturn.

In addition, Monday's earnings report from Thornburg Mortgage, which grabbed headlines for a time as a poster child of the subprime meltdown, could be interesting.

The rest of the earnings calendar is light. A few reports on Thursday -- Del Monte, Vail Resorts and Take-Two -- will be some of the only highlights.

Stocks have probably been helped by crude oil's rapid easing after it broke through $135 last week. There's a strong bullish case to be made that worldwide demand is driving prices higher, but the rapid rise in oil has led some to voice concern about a speculative bubble.

If oil continues to fall, it could hurt investors in the commodity itself, in related ETFs such as the U.S. Oil, or in sector stocks including Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips.

Investors will also be watching the fixed-income area of the market.

"The 10-year Treasury yield above 4% is more positive than negative," Weisberg says. "To me, it indicates that people who flocked to the Treasury market in the first quarter are now beginning to regain some confidence. Of course, it also could be that people are concerned about inflation."

Paulsen agrees. "If growth is going to prove to be stronger than expected again, you could see bond people ticking up the yield on concerns about inflation and Fed tightening." He adds that at current levels, "there's really no buffer in the 10-year for inflation."