Crude, trigo ou ações. Como a cimeira de Trump e Putin no Alasca mexe com os mercados

[EuroVerde]

Talvez este artigo nos possa dar uma dica relevante.
Que me dizem desta visão? Eu tenho-a em conta.

[Eagle Eye 2002]

Nao concordo, nem discordo, do teu raciocinio, neste momento os dois cenarios sao possiveis.

Deixo apenas um informaçao adicional: o VIX continua a avançar para novos minimos (estabelecidos ontem e hoje), no entanto o S&P nao faz novos maximos...

Bull ou Bear?

Um abraço,

Eagle Eye

[Robin Citadino]

Apesar de apresentar razões para optimismo que contrapõem a sua própria opinião pessoal, parece-me que Harrison continua nas entrelinhas a manifestá-la. Quero com isto dizer que é capaz de não ser uma opinião completamente imparcial, como no início alega que vai dar.

E se as coisas estão ao contrário do costume (Janeiro costuma ser um excelente mês e a partir deste momento - Maio - é que alguns investidores costumam "fazer as malas") também poderão continuar ao contrário e este ano termos algo do género "Buy in May and make your day".

E estou à vontade para dar esta opinião porque, tal como tenho manifestado todas as semanas na votação, não é tempo para euforias mas também não o é para desgraças.

Vai demorar um pouco mais a entrarmos no ritmo em que estávamos no primeiro semestre do ano passado (internamente talvez quando chegarmos aos 11450pts). E apesar da lembrança da bolha de 2000 pairar sobre as nossas cabeças, acredito que para já a história não se irá repetir.

Apenas teremos de estar mais vigilantes enquanto a volatilidade se mantiver.

Mas é apenas a minha opinião.
E respeito todas as outras!

Abraços!

[Eagle Eye 2002]

"What I can offer is that risk management trumps reward chasing, capital preservation is the first step towards prolonged profitability and financial intelligence will serve you in good stead. It may not be sexy but effective money management rarely is. That’s one of the misguided legacies left over from the bubble.

Good luck and remember that discipline trumps conviction no matter which way you choose to play."

Excelente! Nao posso estar mais de acordo.
Sell in May and go away... pelo menos ate meados de Junho...
Neste momento o mercado esta bom para perder dinheiro, dos pequeninos para as grandes instituicoes financeiras. Sempre ajuda a começar a estancar a hemorragia

Para todos os que estao sempre prontos a apertar o gatilho ou que estao dentro (bull ou bear) leiam bem este artigo antes que sejam as vossas famous last orders...

Um abraço,
Eagle Eye

[Ulisses Pereira]

"The Other Side of the Ride"
Todd Harrison
May 14, 2008 7:45 am


" Even if you don't agree with opposite opinion, respect it.



“Six bucks and my right nut says we’re not landing in Chicago.”
--Del Griffith, Planes, Trains & Automobiles

Did you ever see the Seinfeld episode when George decides that every decision he ever made was wrong and he resolves to do the complete opposite of what he would normally do?

White becomes wheat. Tuna fish becomes chicken salad. Mayonnaise becomes mustard.
Such is the trading mindset as we play mental tetherball with a litany of financial topics on a daily basis.

Are we in a recession? Is this a bear market? Have commodities gotten ahead of themselves? When will real estate bottom? Is tech breaking out?

Each day introduces unique opportunities as we edge our way through the bipolar stroller and attempt to capture disconnects between perception and reality.

One of the best tidbits of advice I received as a young buck was to put yourself in the shoes of the person on the other side of your trade. See what they see. Think what they think. Keep your friends close and your counter-party closer!

In April, we spoke about 35 reasons why the market, while hitting “a” bottom, hasn’t hit “the” bottom.

Last week, we offered fresh thoughts on why it might make sense to sell in May and go away.

Today, consistent with our never-ending chase to see both sides of every trade, I wanted to offer five things the bulls are banking on. I share these vibes with the understanding that I expect more downside but respect the upside.

Tainted Love

Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke have a clear mandate. They’re willing to mortgage our future with hopes that a legitimate economic recovery takes root. We’ve seen this movie before (on the back of the tech bubble) but memories are short given our immediate gratification societal mindset. They’ve got deep pockets. Interest rate cuts, Auction Facilities, discount windows, shifting collateral parameters, Working Groups on Financial Markets, interest on bank reserves, rebate checks, open-market operations and repurchase agreements are all at their disposal.

And if those don’t work, they seem intent on inventing intervention that does. We’ve written extensively about financial engineering and the inherent dangers thereof. The Federal Reserve balance sheet continues to drain as they attempt to fund the banking system. There are only so many bullets left in the gun and the last one will likely be pointed inward.

Still, we must respect the claws of a cornered animal. We’ve passed the point of no return and the government will do everything within (and potentially beyond) its powers to ensure the finance-based global balls remain in the air. You don’t have to agree with it, you simply have to respect it.

Let’s Get Technical, Technical

In a reactive tape, technical analysis assumes a greater importance in the collective metric mix. The quantifiable nature of that approach allows traders to define risk and there’s comfort in that, particularly in an unsure world.

The Transports held TRAN 5000 despite the FedEx (FDX) preannouncement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recaptured resistance at 12,800 in the face of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). The Russell 2000, NDX and S&P are thisclose to mounting their technical hump (above 735, 2000 and 1405, respectively).

There are four primary metrics (fundamentals, structural and psychology are the others) and we would be wise to remember that technicals remain a better context than catalyst. With so many eyes watching the charts, however, the potential to self-fulfill an upside thrill remains a viable outcome within our probability spectrum.

Stocks Don’t Lie—People Do!

The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. Between AIG (AIG), Fannie Mae (FNM), FedEx, crude, geopolitical unrest, housing malaise, derivative exposure, technical resistance and complacent ranks (VXO 19), the market has (had) every reason to melt like a snow cone on a summer day.

It hasn’t—yet—and that might be offering a valuable clue in the near-term.

To be sure, we must respect—not defer to—the price action. Extrapolating past performance to future results is a dangerous exercise, particularly in an environment where risk continues to cumulatively build.

If they “can’t get ‘em down”—and that sentiment has started to percolate in trading circles—human nature will likely chase them the other way. If and when that happens, look for reactive rationalization in front of the looming elections and upcoming Olympics to make the rounds.

Easy Comparisons

Scribble the word "write-up" on a notepad and stick it somewhere near your desk. Chances are, at a point this year, it’ll be part of the Wall Street lexicon.

Given the magnitude of the write-downs by the financials, we’ll eventually see an institution upwardly adjust the marks on their underlying collateral. That will undoubtedly spark a rash of optimism as traders race for exposure in the space. From where, quite obviously, remains to be seen.

We're in the early innings of a debt unwind that has a long way to go and more victims to claim. As our financial destination isn’t as important as the path that we take to get there—and nothing trades in a straight line—we need to remain vigilant for an “off-sides” versus the collective sentiment.

Expiration

I’ve been trading derivatives for seventeen years and through 200 expirations. I’ve tried to proactively interpret the bias since I was a rookie and can tell you one truth that I’ve learned: While it’s nearly impossible to game the direction, you can bank on the fact that volatility will be exacerbated in the days preceding the actual expiry.

I offer this thought as we ready to bury May paper on Friday. The market has been relatively tame of late but pressure is building under the seemingly calm financial surface. This does not go unnoticed by the powers that be, as evidenced by the string of officials that recently stepped on stage.

If the S&P, NDX, INDU and Russell can put aforementioned resistance underfoot, the potential for upside exacerbation exists. That could pave the way for a trading rally through Friday as front-month protection expires and the path of maximum frustration manifests.

See Both Sides

The bears will be quick to note that the put/call ratio is the highest it’s been since last December and the percentage of bullish advisors is at levels last seen in mid-January. Further to that, Moody’s is rattling the ratings cage on Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI), which would have obvious implications for the derivative-laden financial fabric.

As I edge through the financial media landscape, I continue to be struck by those looking to be told what to do rather than understand how to do it. There are no easy answers, my friends, as the global equation continues to shift. I would be remiss in trying to craft advice to a faceless audience as each of you has unique needs.

What I can offer is that risk management trumps reward chasing, capital preservation is the first step towards prolonged profitability and financial intelligence will serve you in good stead. It may not be sexy but effective money management rarely is. That’s one of the misguided legacies left over from the bubble.

Good luck and remember that discipline trumps conviction no matter which way you choose to play.

R.P."

(in www.minyanville.com)