O futuro hoje
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nao resisto a escrever uma graçola...
tradução de linguagem de futuros :
boa como o milho : abra e veja o gráfico de zc ( futuros de milho).
gajo com um grande par de corn's : individuo que tem dois contratos de zc.
levou um par de banderilhas : individuo que tinha dois contratos de zc e vendeu 4 tendo ficado com dois curtos...
tradução de linguagem de futuros :
boa como o milho : abra e veja o gráfico de zc ( futuros de milho).
gajo com um grande par de corn's : individuo que tem dois contratos de zc.
levou um par de banderilhas : individuo que tinha dois contratos de zc e vendeu 4 tendo ficado com dois curtos...
- Mensagens: 4191
- Registado: 19/4/2005 11:11
Interessante Opinião de um membro do forum da Kitco
[/code]SLAM!!!! They broke gold through last Fridays lows of 928 (June), bottomed today at 921.0 (June) and closed at the lows (reg hrs), thats a bad sign, says its going lower for now. Watch tonight, if its UP overnight like $2 to $5, watch out tomorrow for further drops down to the breakout pt of 909. They could also open lower and head straight to 910 area to really put the wood on the longs.
Theyre slamming it today because its the last day of the qtr, they dont want gold being up so much when everyone gets their stmt, they want everyone in gold to be beaten up for the 1st qtr. Did anyone notice they raised COMEX margins on Friday, they are now 8100/6000! (was 4700/3500 on Friday). Now its very expensive to trade the gold futures unless you have a large account. Like I said, whenever they raise futures margins, they ALWAYS take gold down.
They raise margins so when do the take down, everyone that were on the edge of their margins have been hammered and forced out. Theyre squeezing the little guy out of the gold futures mkt, they are basically saying, you cant play. After they complete this correction, they will run it, and they will not let you in.
What will tomorrow bring?
Sunday night as I was analyzing the gold mkt, I noticed the breakout pt back on 2/15 was at about 910 (June), coincides with the April contract at 905. Now the correction seen last week that bottommed at 909 just happens to be that breakoutpt. Whenever a breakout occurs, it usually will go back to it one more time for that "Last Kiss" before heading into higher prices. I also said to myself (I do not reccommend talking to yourself too much, people may think youre weird, or worse yet, a goldbug) gold SHOULD hold 928. IF it doesnt, its probably going to test 909 (June) again.
And IF it doesnt hold and breaks below 900, the whole correction from 1030s is a SHARP a-b-c correction, which means that the "c" wave down has started, and could go all the way down to 845 to fill that gap gold missed on the way up. The "c" wave down should be about the same length of "a" down, roughly 100 pts. My previous posts back then originally indicated this possibility, and is now somewhat being played out.
Here are the possibly scenarios coming, I would stay on the sidelines for a few days now (unless youre game, I would try scenario 2):
Scenario 1) Its a sharp a-b-c down, bottom target about 845. If this scenario plays out, we should get a close in betwen 900-910 in the coming days, the tell would be a close of like say 904.7. Now, remember what I said about the century marks, they will gap UP or down like 15 pts when they cross it. A close of 904.7 would be a setup for a gap down the next day to like 890, rise to about 895, and then collapse it on its way down to 845. Now why would they gapped 15 pts at 900, think about it, there a tons of contracts at 900, the long term players drawing the line in the sand at 900.
What happens if they gap down, all those sell stops at 900 would go off at 890 to 895 on the open. Theyll squeeze 5-10 more pts out of the trade and stick you with it.
Scenario 2) Last Kiss, if this is the Last Kiss (which Im hoping for because I dont think 845 will be hit now but rather during the summer months), gold should go back to the low 910s and dbl bottom for now. Then we should see that MASSIVE Spring rally, and that rally should take gold back into the 1030s and trade there during reg hrs, I still say it has to trade there during reg hrs because the records highs were only recorded in the overnight session, it MUST trade there during reg hrs.
Any rally probably will not start until like Thurs/Fri. Why? Because the new moon is on Sat 4/5), and they like to start/change trends on thse "moon" marks (like I said before, why?, I dont know, its just my experience, they just seem to do that).
Here's the play: If it get near the low 910s (June), get long with a stop anywhere between 895-905. If its the last kiss, it will NEVER go below 909. The stop is there just in case its scanario 1.
Bottom Line
Hold 900-909, and its a dbl bottom with higher prices to come with an explosive spring rally in the chute.
Break 900-909, see ya, hello 845.....
DISCLAIMER:
Market fluctuations are impossible to predict and taking any position in any market poses great risk. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Commodities e mercado de acções tem andado mais ou menos costas com costas nos últimos tempos.
Se o mercado continuar a recuperar nos próximos tempos, estou certo que vamos ter aí quedas fortes...
O crude já começou a dar sinais de fraqueza e realizou ao que parece um lower-high, tendo espaço para um correcção pelo menos até os 90~95usd.
Se o mercado continuar a recuperar nos próximos tempos, estou certo que vamos ter aí quedas fortes...
O crude já começou a dar sinais de fraqueza e realizou ao que parece um lower-high, tendo espaço para um correcção pelo menos até os 90~95usd.
FLOP - Fundamental Laws Of Profit
1. Mais vale perder um ganho que ganhar uma perda, a menos que se cumpra a Segunda Lei.
2. A expectativa de ganho deve superar a expectativa de perda, onde a expectativa mede a
__.amplitude média do ganho/perda contra a respectiva probabilidade.
3. A Primeira Lei não é mesmo necessária mas com Três Leis isto fica definitivamente mais giro.
tenciono de vez em quando mostrar aqui umas fotos de futuros e tecer alguma considerações... se não se importarem...
os futuros dos indices estão muito giros ... muito verdes etc...
só achei engraçado e digno de nota esta imagem de que as commodities estão a levar uma enorme queda...
não vi até agora razão nenhuma, excepto a especulação...
espero que amanhão o pão também caia 10% (ahahahaha...)
cumprimentos a todos
pvg
os futuros dos indices estão muito giros ... muito verdes etc...
só achei engraçado e digno de nota esta imagem de que as commodities estão a levar uma enorme queda...
não vi até agora razão nenhuma, excepto a especulação...
espero que amanhão o pão também caia 10% (ahahahaha...)
cumprimentos a todos
pvg
- Mensagens: 4191
- Registado: 19/4/2005 11:11
O futuro hoje
Seja soja....
seja trigo... hoje desceu imenso.
o petroleo desceu 6 dolares o barril nas duas ultimas horas.
mas o milho aguentou... questão para dizer.... boa como o milho...
deixo uma foto do trigo com um gap down enorme...
seja trigo... hoje desceu imenso.
o petroleo desceu 6 dolares o barril nas duas ultimas horas.
mas o milho aguentou... questão para dizer.... boa como o milho...
deixo uma foto do trigo com um gap down enorme...
- Anexos
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- Mensagens: 4191
- Registado: 19/4/2005 11:11
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