Americanos procuram Portugal fora das praias

[MNFV]

U.S. Stocks Drop, Led by Financials; Bear Stearns Tumbles

By Eric Martin

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, erasing an early advance, after Fitch Ratings said bank losses will be higher than expected.

Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. led financial shares to their third decline this week. Bear Stearns Cos., the second-largest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds, tumbled after it had to receive federal funding to stem deteriorating finances.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 10.65 to 1,304.83 at 9:51 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 86.05 to 12,059.69. The Nasdaq Composite decreased 9.13 to 2,254.48. Four stocks dropped for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

The S&P 500 pared its weekly advance to 1 percent. U.S. stocks rallied this week after the Federal Reserve pumped $200 billion into the financial system to shore up banks battered by mortgage-related losses and S&P predicted an end to subprime mortgage writedowns.

To contact the reporters on this story: Eric Martin in New York at

[MNFV]

Depois de abertura positiva o risco foi para baixo nos EUA e UE :-/

A noticia da inflação já estava descontada?

[Enslaved]

Esta subida mesmo agora no sp foi porque?
Será por isto:Consumer Price Index (Feb , 2008)?

Já agora existe algum site para ver este tipo de noticias em tempo real?

Eu costumo seguir pelo bloomberg. Tens a opção do live tv que dá em tempo real .

http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html?Intro=intro3

[crg]

Esta subida mesmo agora no sp foi porque?
Será por isto:Consumer Price Index (Feb , 2008)?

Já agora existe algum site para ver este tipo de noticias em tempo real?

Nem sequer melhorou, só não piorou! Não sei para quê tanta euforia.
Quanto ao site, também gostava de conhecer, se alguém quiser indicar...
Cps.

[Midas]

U.S. Consumer Prices Remained Unchanged in February (Update1)

By Shobhana Chandra

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer prices in the U.S. were unexpectedly unchanged in February as fuel costs dropped, easing concern that inflation would keep accelerating as the economy slows.

The steady reading in the cost of living index followed a 0.4 percent gain in January, the Labor Department said today in Washington. So-called core prices, which exclude food and energy, were also little changed, the first time they didn't increase since November 2006.

Today's report will make it easier for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again next week in an effort to limit the slump in economic growth. Still, the cost of fuel has jumped again this month, signaling concern over inflation cannot be completely set aside.

``It allows the Fed to continue easing rates aggressively with a clear conscience,'' Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. ``Inflation is a concern, but it's completely trumped by concerns about the contracting economy and fragile financial markets.''

Treasuries extended earlier gains after the report, with the 10-year note yielding 3.46 percent at 8:37 a.m. in New York, down 7 basis points from yesterday.

Consumer prices were forecast to rise 0.3 percent, according to the median estimate of 81 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from gains of 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent. Prices excluding food and energy were forecast to rise 0.2 percent, according to the survey median.

Consumer prices were up 4 percent in the 12 months to February, after a 4.3 percent year-over-year gain the prior month. The core rate was 2.3 percent, the smallest 12-month gain since October.

Fuel Costs

Today's report showed energy prices dropped 0.5 percent, the most since August, after a 0.7 percent increase in the prior month. The cost of electricity dropped by the most since December 2005. Gasoline and fuel oil prices also fell, while natural gas expenses jumped.

Inflation is accelerating this month as fuel prices climb. Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached a record $111 a barrel this week. The average cost of regular gasoline climbed to $3.27 on March 12, according to AAA, also the highest ever.

``Further increases in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent weeks, together with the latest data on consumer prices, suggest slightly greater upside risks to the projections of both overall and core inflation than we saw last month,'' Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress in February.

He also cited a ``distinctly less favorable'' economic outlook, signaling policy makers are more focused on growth.

Investors project the central bank will lower the benchmark rate by three-quarters of a point by the end of their next meeting on March 18, according to futures trading.

Goods, Services

The consumer price index is the government's broadest gauge of costs for goods and services. Almost 60 percent of the CPI covers prices that consumers pay for services ranging from medical visits to airline fares and movie tickets.

Price declines were broad-based, signaling companies may be trying to lure customers with discounts as demand wanes. The cost of clothing, automobiles and air fares all dropped.

Other categories registered smaller increases than usual. Medical care costs rose 0.1 percent, the least since March 2007.

Food was one category that continued to show gains. That index, which accounts for about a fifth of the CPI, rose 0.4 and was up at a 6.5 percent pace so far this year. The biggest increase last month was for dairy products.

Rents Cool

Rents which, make up almost 40 percent of the core CPI, also rose at a slower pace in February. The worst housing recession in a quarter century is deepening as buyers wait for prices to fall further and lenders make it harder to borrow. A category designed to track rental prices was unchanged.

Revenue at Kroger Co. rose 2.2 percent last quarter, the Cincinnati-based company said this week. The biggest U.S. grocery chain charged customers more to compensate for price increases by Kraft Foods Inc. and General Mills Inc. that reflected rising expenses for milk and wheat.

``We don't think it's abating at this point in time,'' Kroger's Chief Executive Officer David Dillon said, referring to the price increases on a March 11 conference call with analysts. Kroger, which also sells items such as furniture, clothing and jewelry, said profit fell as sales of higher-priced goods suffered.

The Labor Department will issue figures for wholesale prices next week. The consumer-price and wholesale-price reports reflect differences in timing. In calculating wholesale prices, the government asks survey participants to report costs as of the Tuesday of the week that includes the 13th. Consumer prices are based on average costs over the entire month.

The report from the U.S. contrasts with figures from overseas also issued today. European consumer prices and wages rose more than economists forecast, leaving the European Central Bank with little room to lower interest rates as economic growth slows.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 14, 2008 08:41 EDT

Inflação? Onde está ela?

[o faroleiro]

Esta subida mesmo agora no sp foi porque?
Será por isto:Consumer Price Index (Feb , 2008)?

Já agora existe algum site para ver este tipo de noticias em tempo real?

[o faroleiro]

S&P Says End in Sight for Writedowns on Subprime Debt

[Fibonacci]

E ainda:

U.S. January Trade Deficit Rises 0.6%; Exports Gain

[Navete]

FIBO, a boa nova tinha que aparecer pelos teus dedos!!

Isto penso que esteja a dar animo aos mercados.

[Fibonacci]

FED ANNOUNCES NEW LENDING TOOL, PLANS TO LEND UP TO $200 BLN

[Fibonacci]

NEW FORECLOSURES HIT ALL-TIME HIGH FOR THIRD-STRAIGHT QUARTER

U.S. MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATE RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE 1985

U.S. JAN. PENDING HOME SALES ARE UNCHANGED VS PREVIOUS MONTH
estimate: -1%

[Fibonacci]

*S&P MAY REMOVE AMBAC FROM CREDITWATCH IF PLAN SUCCESSFUL

[Fibonacci]

AMBAC TO OFFER AT LEAST $1 BLN SHARES, $500M EQUITY UNITS

By Christine Richard and Bryan Keogh
March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc., the bond insurer facing a crippling credit-rating downgrade, will sell common stock and equity units to bolster its capital.
The offering will be managed by Credit Suisse Group, Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and UBS AG, New York-based Ambac said today in a regulatory filing. The filing didn't say how many shares or units the company plans to sell.
Ambac is seeking to stave off a downgrade of its AAA rating after posting record losses on subprime guarantees. The loss of Ambac's top rating would cast doubt on $556 billion of municipal and asset-backed securities insured by the company, forcing some
investors to sell the debt and others to reduce their holdings.
By helping Ambac raise money, the banks are also helping themselves avoid writedowns on the Ambac-insured debt they own.
``It's imperative that they don't allow this kind of link in the financial system to blow up,'' said Robert Haines, an analyst at CreditSights Inc., an independent bond research firm in New York. ``No one wants to have the municipal market fall apart and at the same time there are fears of banking sector
instability.''
Moody's Investors Service on Feb. 29 said it would probably affirm Ambac's Aaa rating if its ``capital strengthening activities'' are successful. The New York-based ratings company said it was continuing its six-week review pending an agreement.
Standard & Poor's said last week it is reviewing Ambac's rating for a downgrade, pending a capital raising.

`Circular' Relationship

Ambac rose 63 cents, or 5.9 percent, to $11.35 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading before the shares were halted at noon. The shares have tumbled 87 percent in the past year before today.
Banks would lose as much as $70 billion if the top-rated bond insurers, which include MBIA Inc. and FGIC Corp., lose their credit ratings, Oppenheimer & Co. analysts estimated in January. MBIA's ratings were affirmed by Moody's and S&P last week. FGIC lost its AAA at all three ratings companies.
The banks bought bond insurance to hedge the risks of collateralized debt obligations and other asset-backed securities they own that are now tumbling in value. Bond insurers with AAA ratings have guaranteed $2.4 trillion of debt including municipal bonds.
``It's a circular relationship between the banks and the bond insurers,'' said Haines. ``There are lots of vested interests.''
MBIA retained its top rating after the Armonk, New York-based company raised $3 billion, agreed to stop insuring asset-backed debt for at least six months and said it would separate its municipal and structured finance businesses within five years.

Cut Dividend

Responding to pressure to shore up capital, Ambac cut its dividend last week and said it will suspend writing guarantees on debt, including mortgage-backed bonds, to bolster capital, echoing MBIA's plan.
The company abandoned plans in January to raise $1 billion in a stock sale after a plunge in the company's shares. Eight banks then formed a group to help Ambac find new ways to raise money.
Ambac, which pioneered municipal bond insurance in 1971, and the rest of the industry are reeling from their expansion into CDOs, which package pools of securities then split them into pieces with different ratings.
The declining value of those guarantees led Ambac to a record $3.2 billion net loss last year and contributed to the share price slump.

Citigroup Connection

New York-based Citigroup, the largest U.S. bank, helped create at least $6.9 billion of CDOs insured by Ambac that have tumbled in value, according to research by Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc.
Of the $22 billion of Ambac-insured CDOs linked to the mortgage market, about $7.5 billion were underwritten by Citigroup. Of those CDOs, $6.9 billion are experiencing so- called events of default, Tavakoli said in a report last week.
Such events signal the most-senior classes may not be paid in full.
Citigroup has ridden to Ambac's rescue before. In 1985 Citibank purchased a majority stake in Ambac and provided it with capital after its parent Baldwin-United, a Cincinnati-based piano maker filed for bankruptcy.
Citigroup sold its controlling interest in Ambac as part of an initial public offering of the company in 1991.

Isto é que era o mega-plano de salvação?

[TP1]

O indicador ISM para indicar recessão, tem de estar abaixo de 41,1.

[The Mechanic]

Oferta de Buffett às seguradoras de emissões obrigacionistas “já não está em cima da mesa”

-----------------------------------------------------

Raquel Godinho
rgodinho@mediafin.pt




O milionário Warren Buffett anunciou hoje em entrevista ao canal de televisão americano CNBC, citada pela agência Bloomberg, que a sua oferta para ressegurar 800 mil milhões de dólares (527 mil milhões de euros) de dívida municipal das seguradoras de emissões obrigacionistas MBIA, Ambac Financial Group e FGIC "já não está em cima da mesa".

A oferta foi lançada a 12 de Fevereiro pelo segundo homem mais rico dos EUA sobre as principais seguradoras de emissões obrigacionistas do país, numa altura em que se temia que estas seguradoras sofressem um corte no seu "rating". Contudo, as seguradoras a quem a oferta se dirigia rejeitaram-na. Buffet sublinhou que estas entidades "ainda não fizeram frente a todos os erros que cometeram".

O milionário afirmou também que, apesar de a definição académica de recessão falar de dois trimestres consecutivos de crescimento negativo, "qualquer definição utilizando o sentido comum afirma que estamos em recessão", sublinhando que não há certezas de quanto tempo durará este estado.

A suportar esta declaração, Warren Buffett lembrou que vários indicadores económicos assinalam esta situação.

Por outro lado, o milionário referiu que, apesar de a fraqueza do dólar beneficiar as exportações dos EUA, também as empresas americanas perdem contratos face aos concorrentes europeus, referindo-se ao grande contrato concedido pela Air Force dos EUA à EADS em detrimento da nacional Boeing.

Queda do dia...


Um abraço ,

The Mechanic

[Fibonacci]

U.S. ISM Factory Index Fell to 48.3 in February From 50.7
March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted in February for a second time in three months, pushing the economy closer to a recession.
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index dropped to 48.3 from 50.7 in January, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Fifty is the dividing line between contraction
and expansion.
The collapse in housing is rippling through the economy as consumers curb spending and factories reduce production of furniture, automobiles and appliances. Credit restrictions may continue to hurt economic growth, prompting Federal Reserve policy makers to lower interest rates again this month.
``It seems clear that the U.S. economy is in the process of a significant deceleration in the growth rate,'' Drew Matus, a senior economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in New York, said before the report.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast the index would fall to 48, according to the median estimate of 68 economists. Economists' forecasts ranged from 45 to 51.

[Navete]

Mais ou menos o que aconteceu com o BCP, era para ser 1Bil mas é melhor 1.3Bil...
Vão todos para aumento de capital...

[Fibonacci]

Assim dá para perceber melhor:

Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Ambac Financial Group Inc. was given more time to raise capital by Moody's Investors Service, who said that may be enough to justify the company's AAA rating.
Ambac's current capital exceeds the minimum required for a AAA, though is short of the targeted level, Moody's said in a statement today. Ambac, the world's second-largest bond insurer, may meet the target if it is successful in raising capital,
Moody' said.

Ou seja, está acima do mínimo mas abaixo do que deveria ter desejavelmente.

Se o aumento de capital (ou seja a solução que for encontrada) for bem sucedido, então mantém o rating.

Fibo

[Navete]

FIBO, então o que eu entendi foi:

MOODY´S diz que o capital da AMBAC excede o minimo dos requesitos, mas que não chega para ter clasificação AAA!?

[Fibonacci]

AMBAC'S CAPITAL EXCEEDS MINIMUM Aaa STANDARD, MOODY'S SAYS

AMBAC'S CAPITAL IS BELOW Aaa TARGET LEVEL, MOODY'S SAYS

MOODY'S SEES AMBAC HITTING TARGET IF CAPITAL EFFORTS SUCCEED

[Fibonacci]

U.S. FEB. CHICAGO NAPM PURCHASERS INDEX AT 44.5 AFTER 51.5

Esperado: 49,5

[The Mechanic]

U.S. stocks declined for a second day after the economy grew less than forecast, jobless claims jumped and Sprint Nextel Corp. reported a record $29.5 billion loss.
Bloomberg

Um abraço ,

The Mechanic

[Fibonacci]

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush said today there is ``no question'' the economy is slowing, while rejecting suggestions that the nation is on the brink of a recession.
``I'm concerned about the economy because I'm concerned about working Americans,'' the president said at a news conference today at the White House. ``I don't think we're headed to a recession.''
He also urged Congress to quickly pass legislation to help homeowners avoid foreclosure and not act on measures that would rescue lenders and property speculators.
Government reports today and yesterday indicated that the U.S. expansion, now in its seventh year, is in peril.
The Commerce Department reported today that the economy in the fourth quarter grew at an annual rate of 0.6 percent, less than forecast and reflecting reduced estimates for spending and construction. A separate government report today showed initial claims for unemployment insurance climbed 19,000 last week to 373,000, higher than forecast.
The government reported yesterday that durable goods orders fell 5.3 percent, more than forecast in January as companies cut spending. New-home sales fell last month to the lowest level since February 1995 and house prices slid by a record 15 percent
from a year ago.

Time to Work

Bush said he wants to give the stimulus plan his
administration worked out with lawmakers time to take effect before trying to pass a second such measure.
``We acted robustly and now it's time to determine whether or not this pro-growth package will actually work,'' he said.
Responding to criticism of the North American Free Trade Agreement by Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama, an Illinois senator, and Hillary Clinton, a New York senator, Bush said ``it's in the interests'' of the U.S. to pursue free trade.
``I am a big believer in free trade,'' Bush said. ``I firmly believe that free trade is essential to the formation of high- paying, quality jobs.''
Obama and Clinton this week said they would threaten to withdraw from the pact with Canada and Mexico if it isn't renegotiated to include labor and environmental standards intended to protect U.S. workers.
``The idea of just unilaterally withdrawing from a trade treaty'' for politics is ``not good policy,'' Bush said.

Housing

On the crisis in the housing market, Bush reiterated that he wants Congress to pass measures that would enhance the role of the Federal Housing Administration, an agency that insures mortgages, and toughen oversight of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae,
the largest sources of home financing in the U.S.
``Congress should move ahead with responsible legislation to modernize'' the three, Bush said.
The administration also backs a measure that would expand tax-exempt state bond programs to provide for mortgage refinancing.
Earlier this week, the Bush administration signaled it will veto foreclosure-prevention legislation Senate Democrats aim to advance that includes a provision that would let judges modify
mortgages in bankruptcy proceedings.

[Paionense]

E este risco foi de que?

[Vencer na Bolsa]

Eu tenho um artigo sobre Análise de Noticias com alguns exemplos, que podem ver aqui:
http://vencernabolsa.blogspot.com/2008/02/analisar-as-notcias.html