Dividendos da Galp rendem mais 17 milhões ao Estado

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Worries about 1970s-style stagflation have moved to the forefront to rival recession fears. Should the Fed be more worried about rising prices?



Inflation fears, pushed aside recently by talk of recession, got new attention this week.


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Recession has been getting so much attention lately that it's been easy to forget about the threats posed to the U.S. economy by inflation.

But inflation worries are now back in focus in a major way. Oil prices hit a record of $101.32 a barrel in trading Wednesday, and was briefly above $100 again Thursday

Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index, the government's key inflation reading, showed a 4.3% rise in overall prices over the past 12-months. That reading has risen steadily from only 2.0% last August. Even stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core CPI posted the biggest seasonally-adjusted one-month jump in 19 months.

If that wasn't enough to stoke inflation fears, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast for 2008 Wednesday while also cutting its outlook for economic growth this year.

This prompted the Wall Street Journal to herald the return of "stagflation" -- the unwanted combination of stagnant economic growth and destructive inflation -- on its front page on Thursday. The New York Times also trotted out the word in a headline Thursday.

All of this made some market experts who have been worrying about inflation for a while chuckle on Thursday.

Rising prices were hard to miss

These so-called inflation hawks argue that it is precisely because the Fed and markets have been ignoring inflation that it has again become a threat.

Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research, said it should have been apparent that the price of food and other items would start heading higher after a large number of consumer product companies talked about passing on rising commodity costs to consumers late last year.

However, some inflation watchers were also quick to point that the current situation is a long way from the stagflation seen in the 1970's, when interest rates and inflation both climbed into the teens. To put that in perspective, the federal funds rate is now at 3%.

"I find it funny that people who didn't think there was any inflation in the pipeline are now talking about stagflation," said Barry Ritholtz, CEO director of equity research for Fusion IQ. "This is nothing like the 1970's, which was a pretty dismal period and not just because of polyester and disco."

Inflation doves: Slowdown could solve problem

Typically, slower growth or an actual recession cuts demand for products enough to curb prices. Based on the minutes from the Fed's latest meetings, that seems to be what the Fed is banking on to keep inflation under control.

Other economists agree that current inflation pressures are typical for the start of a recession and that prices should be held in check by the coming downturn.

David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch, wrote in a note Thursday that inflation should not be a major worry. Rosenberg is one of a growing list of economists who believe a recession has already begun.

He argued that commodity prices have only a limited impact on the cost of final goods and that wage growth is a bigger contributor to inflation. A weak job market should keep wages from rising sharply.

What's more, Rosenberg said that "inflation is a lagging indicator and the Fed knows it."

Inflation hawks: Dust off the bell-bottom pants

Still, there are reasons the economy could be heading for a period of stagflation.

The weakening dollar is a concern since it raises the price of dollar-denominated commodities, such as oil and other raw materials, as well as imported goods.

Ritholtz argues the weaker dollar is part of a longer-term trend that could keep price pressures building to very painful levels in the future.

"The big risk is not that we have stagflation today," he said. "The risk is down the road this turns into a serious case of stagflation. If I had to guess where we are, I'd say we're probably where we were during the oil shock of 1973-74."

Ritholtz said that overseas demand from growing markets such as China and India are likely to keep prices for many goods high, even if consumption of those products falls in the United States.

"Unless we see a significant U.S. recession that causes a slowdown overseas, inflation may be stickier this time around," he said.

More rate cuts may not be the answer

Argus Research's Yamarone said he's worried that the Fed seems to be willing to ignore its mandate to keep prices stable and this could lead to more inflation.

"The Fed has pretty much told us inflation is on the back burner," said Yamarone. "Maybe inflation is not that alarming yet. But I think you'll have this slow creep, and next year you know the pace will be significantly elevated."

He added that if the markets lose faith in the central bank's inflation-fighting credibility, long-term bond yields will shoot much higher.

Already, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note has climbed from an intraday low of 3.28% following the Fed's emergency rate cut in January to about 3.8%

A bigger spike in long-term bond yields could be problematic because many rates that affect consumers and businesses, such as fixed-rate mortgages, credit cards and corporate debt, are more closely tied to long-bond rates set by markets than the short-term rates set by the Fed.

With all this in mind, Yamarone said the closely-watched CPI could jump as high as 6.5% this year. That would wipe out any chance for the economy to show gains when adjusted for increased prices, the most common measure of a nation's economic growth.

In other words, even if the economy doesn't actually decline, it may feel like it has to many consumers.

"This is how you get economic conditions to feel like a recession to the average person who has to feed his family and heat his house," Yamarone said.

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The housing slump has compelled the two entities to buy up mortgages on the secondary market that banks are backing away from. But that could end badly, charges one regulator.

February 7 2008: 12:14 PM EST

Current Mortgage Rates

Type Overall avgs


30 yr fixed mtg 5.49%
15 yr fixed mtg 4.96%
30 yr fixed jumbo mtg 6.56%
5/1 ARM 4.96%
5/1 jumbo ARM 5.58%


Charge: Freddie and Fannie taking on too much debt
Homeowners: Can't pay? Just walk away
Las Vegas tops foreclosure list
New $20B subprime bailout on the table


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The increased share of housing debt taken on by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae during the housing slump has put the two government sponsored enterprises at risk, it was charged Thursday.

The two outfits are "reducing risks in the market, but concentrating mortgage risks on themselves. These risks are beginning to take their toll," said James Lockhart, director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), which regulates Fannie and Freddie. He was speaking Thursday at a Senate Banking committee on regulatory reform.

Freddie will report its first ever annual loss for 2007 at the end of February, while Fannie, is expected to report its first loss in 22 years for the year.

As the sublime crisis has grown, banks have backed away from buying mortgages in the secondary market. This has left Fannie and Freddie, which do the same thing, to pick up the slack.

As a result, the two government sponsored entities (GSEs) saw the housing debt they and the Federal Home Loan Banks carry grow by 16 percent to $6.3 trillion, more than the total public debt of the United States, according to Lockhart.

Some experts worry that if Fannie or Freddie take on too much debt and fail, that the government would have to bail them out using taxpayer money.

"The conforming market supported by Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and Fannie Mae (FNM) is the only well-functioning segment of the mortgage market," said Richard Syron, CEO of Freddie Mac. "We're experiencing greater losses as house prices decline, but that is not surprising since this is the market we were created to support it."

And Daniel Mudd, Fannie's CEO agreed. "Our business is meeting the increased demand for liquidity and our overall credit book has held up relatively well," he said. "Yes, these are tough times, but that is when you want a Fannie Mae."

But Lockhart argues that the GSEs require more regulatory oversight as their market share grows, in order for them to maintain the confidence of both the public and investors.

"[GSEs] have become the system for secondary mortgages," said Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL), and that creates a risk to the general economy.

If Fannie or Freddie run into trouble, that could lead to severe disruption in the mortgage market, which could then ripple through the entire financial system. Because they maintain capital that is a very small fraction of their debt obligations, the GSEs particularly vulnerable.

Lockhart said, "It's critical that their capital grow as their risk grows and that's going to take a lot of work."

[acintra]

The world's largest retailer leads a parade of sales misses in January, indicating trouble in the U.S. economy.

February 7 2008: 11:34 AM EST


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. retailers are on track to report their slowest monthly sales growth in five years, which would further cement fears that American consumers are buckling under the weight of a slowing economy.

Leading the way is No. 1 retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc., (WMT, Fortune 500) which on Thursday reported a big miss in its January same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year. Same-store sales is a key measure of performance in the retail industry.

Wal-Mart partly blamed its soft sales on poor gift card redemptions, but one retail analyst wasn't buying that explanation.

"Wal-Mart's not a top destination for gift card redemptions," said Ken Perkins, president of sales tracking firm Retail Metrics. "I think its results show that its core low-income shoppers and now the middle-class households who shop there are scaling back."

Thomson Financial, which compares monthly results at 42 of the nation's largest retail chains based on analysts' estimates, expects total January same-store sales to increase just 1%.

That would be the slowest monthly pace of growth in the measure since March 2003. It also spells bad news for the economy, since consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of economic growth.

Most retail analysts have been anticipating widespread sales weakness as more Americans cut back their spending amid the housing slump and tighter credit conditions.

Rising debt levels, along with a jump in gas and food prices and an uptick in unemployment, have also pinched consumers.

"If we aren't already in a recession, there is a very good chance that we are heading there," Perkins said

But one economist cautioned against using last month's sales weakness to claim that a recession is now a fait accompli.

"Consumer spending has been remarkably strong through the fourth quarter," said Michael Englund, chief economist with Action Economics. "So we have to be a little bit cautious about that claim,"

Although Englund conceded that the January sales numbers now "raise a red flag that consumer spending is slowing," but he said the trend is also troubling because it comes at the tail end of a surge in annual bonus and gift card redemptions.

"Over the last three years we've had an explosive surge in year-end bonuses and gift-card redemptions which boosted January sales," Englund said. But as that surge begins to diminish, it's leading to slow spending in January.

However, lower interest rates and the economic stimulus package that's now being debated in the Senate could provide relief to consumers and retailers most likely later in the year.

The stimulus package would give most taxpayers a rebate check for $600 or more. Lower interest rates would make it easier for consumers to refinance their home mortgage and take out credit, both actions that could help to boost discretionary spending.

The hit to retailers

Perkins said the retail industry faces turbulence in the coming months. But the fallout has already started.

Retail stocks - let's go shopping!
Macy's, Home Depot, Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500) and Talbots are among the retailers that have already announced store closings and job cuts. Perkins expects even more consolidation ahead.

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, said January sales at its stores open at least a year rose just 0.5% versus its own forecast for a 2% increase for the month.

The retailer blamed weakness in post-holiday gift card redemptions and unfavorable weather for the sales shortfall. Moreover, the retailer said consumers either didn't use their gift cards right away or used them to buy food and other consumer staples instead of higher-priced discretionary products.

For February, Wal-Mart expects same-store sales to be flat to up 2%.

Wal-Mart backed its fourth-quarter profit guidance of between 99 cents to $1.03 a share. It's scheduled to report its quarterly and year-end results on Feb. 19.

TalkBack: Are you spending less at big retailers like Wal-Mart?
Sales crumbled at clothing and department store chains. Among them, Macy's (M, Fortune 500) on Wednesday reported a 7.1% drop in its January same-store sales.

Sales at teen chain Pacific Sunwear tumbled 7.4%. American Eagle Outfitters logged a 7% sales decline and Limited Brands (LTD, Fortune 500), owner of the Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works chains, reported an 8% sales drop.

Gap Inc., (GPS, Fortune 500) the No. 1 clothing seller, said its January sales slipped 2%.

Even the high-end sector, which has so far eluded the spending slump, took a hit, with Nordstrom (JWN, Fortune 500) reporting a 6.6% decline in January sales.

Overall, of the 41 tracked retailers that have reported their sales results, 50% have missed analysts' expectations, according to Thomson Financial.

[acintra]

Stocks tank after an economic report and comments from a Fed official amplify recession panic. Dow loses 370 points.February 5 2008: 5:40 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tanked Tuesday, after a report showing a big slowdown in the services sector of the economy and cautionary comments from a Fed president amplified fears that a recession is underway or imminent.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost about 370 points, seeing its worst one-day point loss since mid-October. The decline equaled a drop of 2.9%.

The broader Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index lost 44 points, its worst single-day point loss in almost 6 months. The decline equaled a drop of 3.2%.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) fell 73 points and saw its worst single-day point loss since mid-October. The decline equaled a drop of 2.6%.

"The pebble in the pond this morning was the ISM report and then the comments from [Fed President] Lacker came out and that kind of pushed people over the edge," said Kim Caughey, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Partners.

"This is a very volatile time, everyone is nervous and the volatility shows the degree of nervousness," Caughey added.

Stocks tumbled in January, with the Nasdaq seeing its worst start to the year ever, on fears that the credit and housing market crises will send the economy into recession, if it isn't there already.

After such a steep decline, stocks managed to bounce back for a few days last week as investors scooped up battered shares. But the rally was short-lived, with stocks erasing last week's gains in a matter of two sessions.

The speed of the retreat added to investor jitters, said Peter Dunay, investment strategist at Leeb Capital Management. "If we lost that much over three weeks, investors would have seen it as a period of consolidation, but to drop 370 points in a day is really rattling."

More hints of a recession. The ISM services index, a survey of services sector executives, showed business activity falling in January for the first time in five years. The report was released nearly an hour ahead of schedule, unnerving investors at the start of trade. The report countered last week's reading on the manufacturing sector, which showed expansion. (Full Story).

"This is the most unequivocal sign we've had that the economy is weakening," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital. "We've had data pointing in that direction, but they've been all over the map and it always seemed like there was a silver lining in the weak reports."

"There is nothing in this report that was redeeming," he added. "It's simply terrible."

Looking to the Federal Reserve. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, in a speech Tuesday, said that the report raises the risks of a recession, Briefing.com reported. However, he said that inflationary pressures are also rising, which could limit further interest rate cuts. Lacker is an alternate member of the Fed's policy committee this year.

His comments seemed to suggest the threat of "stagflation," the combination of slowing growth paired with higher inflation, a miserable economic development investors are hoping to avoid.

Last week's monthly jobless claims report and fourth-quarter GDP growth report suggested an acceleration of the economic slowdown. Investors will next look to Wednesday's fourth-quarter productivity report to see if it shows a rise in unit labor costs, i.e. wage inflation, and next week's January retail sales report, amid fears about a consumer spending recession.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in late January, leaving the fed funds rate, a key short-term interest rate that affects consumer loans, at 3%. The fed also cut the discount rate, which affects bank loans. The Fed has also injected billions into the financial system through a series of auctions.

The Fed actions have already started to have an impact, but it typically takes a good six to 12 months for rate cuts to work their way through the economy.

Stocks on the move. The stock selloff was decisive, with all 30 Dow components sliding, led by financial stocks Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).

Economically sensitive shares, such as Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), slumped too.

Tech declines were also broad, with 95 of the Nasdaq's 100 largest non-financial stocks falling, including Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) and Dell (DELL, Fortune 500).

In other corporate news, News Corp. (NWS, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that met estimates late Monday. Shares were little changed Tuesday.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers trounced winners over 4 to 1 on volume of 1.68 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, losers beat winners by more than 3 to 1 on volume of 2.51 billion shares.

Other markets. Treasury prices rallied, as investors sought safety in government debt, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.56% from 3.64% late Monday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

[acintra]

ECONOMY:
Recession Watch 2008 Full coverage


A weak report about the services sector has caused some experts to declare that the economy has already entered downturn.
February 5 2008: 12:47 PM EST


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A growing number of top economists believe that the U.S. economy has now toppled into recession.

Alarm bells were set off Tuesday by a grim report on service businesses, which make up the majority of the U.S. economy.

The Institute of Supply Management said that activity in the service sector declined for the first time in nearly five years. This report also indicated that employers are cutting staff.

The survey covers the retail, transportation and health care industries as well as hard hit areas such as finance, real estate and construction.

Some economists argued that the normally low-profile ISM services reading, coupled with the government's report Friday showing the first monthly net loss in jobs in more than four years, is proof that recession is now a reality.

"My forecast had been that the recession would begin this quarter, but the hard data wasn't there yet," said Keith Hembre, chief economist of First American Funds. "But now we're seeing that. The service sector is a much larger component of the economy [than manufacturing] and this is very much a recession reading."

The National Bureau of Economic Research is the official arbiter of whether the economy has entered recession. But the NBER typically does not declare a recession until well after one has begun.

Weakness spreading

Economists took the latest report as a sign that problems are no longer restricted to just housing and manufacturing.

"We're definitely seeing conditions spread to more parts of the economy. The big drop in business activity, that's a huge red flag," said Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics for Moody's Economy.com.

Faucher said his firm now believes the economy is in a recession but he believes it's possible that growth will resume in the second half of this year.

However, Faucher noted this will depend upon additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, coupled with Congress quickly passing a proposed $150 billion stimulus package. That package includes $600 tax rebates for most U.S. taxpayers and some temporary tax cuts for businesses.

Economist Bob Brusca of FAO Economics said he doubted that the U.S. was in recession a week ago, but now he believes there's about a 75% chance that a recession began in January.

"That's what recessions do. They come upon you all of a sudden," he said. "When you look back at history, you're struck by how even-keel it is until the bottom just falls out."

What's next for the Fed

Besides the ISM and jobs report, Brusca said he was concerned about the results of the Federal Reserve's survey of senior lending officers released Monday. The survey showed a tightening of lending standards for business and residential loans in the past three months.

According to a statement from the Fed, lenders are reporting a "reduced tolerance for risk" as the reason why they are being more cautious.

And even for the relatively safe "prime" residential loans made to borrowers with good credit, 55% of lenders surveyed by the Fed reported tighter lending standards.

Brusca said this is a major concern for the central bank. "The Fed has been leaning on banks to not tighten so much," he said.

Worries about banks tightening their lending standards is one reason why the Fed announced two large rate cuts in just the course of eight days in late January, reducing the key federal funds rate from 4.25% to 3%.

Most economists aren't looking for additional cuts of that magnitude, but they do expect more cuts.

Even Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, who is known primarily for being more concerned about inflation than economic growth, said in a speech Tuesday that "the prominence of downside risks means that further easing ultimately may be warranted." Lacker does not get to vote on monetary policy decisions this year, however.

Lacker added that "sluggish growth in the near term" -- not an actual recession -- is the most likely economic scenario. But he did not completely rule out the possibility of a "mild recession, similar to the last two we have experienced."

Moody's Economy.com is forecasting cuts totaling three-quarters of a percentage point over the next three scheduled Fed meetings in March, April and May.

But the markets want more drastic action by the Fed. The Chicago Board of Trade's fed fund futures are pricing in a 30% chance of a quarter-point cut this month, when the Fed isn't even scheduled to meet.

Those futures are also pricing in a 100% chance of a quarter-point cut in March, and a 28% chance of a half-point cut during the month, up from virtually no chance of a half-point cut ahead of Tuesday's ISM report.

[acintra]

Recession Watch 2008 Full coverage


Even if $150B tax rebate plan gives economy a shot in arm, it won't necessary prompt employers to add staff.

February 4 2008: 12:53 PM EST

Even with all the economic turmoil going on, CareerBuilder.com still has a lot of jobs to offer.
Play video

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Most economists agree that the stimulus package now working its way through Congress will boost the economy.

How many jobs it will create, however, is up for debate.

The Bush administration has estimated that the stimulus package will add 500,000 jobs to the economy.

Last Friday's jobs report showed U.S. employers trimmed 17,000 jobs from their payrolls in January. That fed new fears that the economy may be on the cusp of recession, if it hasn't fallen into one already.

President Bush and other politicians argued Friday that the drop in employment is further reason to pass the $150 billion stimulus plan, which is equal to about 1% of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP).

The thought is that if consumers have more money to spend once they get their rebate checks later this summer, some businesses, especially retailers, will need to hire new staff to deal with increased demand.

But many economists argue that companies won't hire more permanent workers just because taxpayers may look to quickly spend their one-time rebate of about $600.

"Businesses don't change their hiring or investment habits for a one-check pony," said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research. "There's no overriding need to hire workers for anything more than a temporary basis."

Temporary cut, temporary impact: Yamarone and some other economists point to groundbreaking research by economist Milton Friedman in 1957 called the permanent-income hypothesis, which essentially suggests consumers and businesses change spending activity based more upon the their long-term income expectations.

According to Friedman, consumers and corporations don't change their spending significantly if they think a change in income is only temporary. That's the case if they see sharp drop in income or a sudden windfall.

Some liberal economists who often find themselves disagreeing with Friedman suggest that on this point, he could be right.

Jared Bernstein, an economist with the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive Washington think tank, said that although tax rebates in 2001 played a role in lessening the length and severity the last recession, the economy still ended up "with a pretty painful jobless recovery."

Even economists who believe the stimulus plan will help the job market argue that it will be felt from limiting layoffs, not spurring hiring.

"I don't think stimulus is going to cause a burst of hiring, it's just going to prevent firing that might otherwise take place," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

[acintra]

After a strong advance last week, investors step back amid downgrades of credit card issuers, worries about the economy. Microsoft's move for Yahoo is in focus.

February 4 2008: 12:37 PM EST


CNNMoney.com's Super Bowl spending index tracks everything from the dips and chips, to the mega-dollars behind football's biggest game.
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slumped Monday afternoon, following last week's big rally, as investors mulled analyst downgrades of the financial sector and the continued threat of a recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), the broader Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) all declined nearly 3 hours into the session.

Treasury prices slumped, raising the corresponding yields. The dollar was mixed versus other major currencies.

Stocks rallied at the end of last week, after a miserable January, as investors welcomed Microsoft's bid for Yahoo and more talk of a bailout for the troubled bond insurers.

Last week the Dow gained 4.4% and the S&P 500 jumped 4.9%. The Nasdaq advanced 3.8%.

After such a big run, stocks were vulnerable Monday, particularly with little new economic or corporate news to focus on.

UBS downgraded American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) to "sell" from "buy." The bank also cut its ratings on Discovery Financial (DFS) and Capital One Financial (COF, Fortune 500) to "sell" from "hold." The downgrades reflected the firm's forecast for a consumer-led recession in the first six months of this year, which would weigh on the credit card issuers.

Additionally Merrill Lynch downgraded Wachovia (WB, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) to "sell," Briefing.com reported.

Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500)'s proposed $45 billion takeover of Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) remains in the spotlight and is facing challenges from Google (GOOG, Fortune 500). Google publicly criticized the unsolicited bid over the weekend, and the company's chief executive called Yahoo's CEO to offer help in fending off Microsoft, possibly through a partnership, according to published reports.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by a narrow margin on volume of 580 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers five to four on volume of 1 billion shares.

In economic news, the December factory orders index rose more than expected. Orders rose 2.3%, the government reported, topping forecasts for a rise of 2%. Orders rose 1.7% in November.

Worried about a recession. Stocks tumbled in January, with the Nasdaq losing nearly 10% for its worst start to the year since its inception in 1971. Investors have been bailing out of a variety of sectors on bets that the credit and housing market fallout has sent the economy into a recession, or will do so later this year.

The Federal Reserve has cut short-term borrowing rates twice in the last two weeks as a means of shoring up the economy and loosening up the credit market.

A nearly $150 billion fiscal stimulus plan that would give tax breaks to many consumers is being debated in the Senate after receiving approval in the House of Representatives.

On Monday, President Bush announced a $3.1 trillion budget that includes more military spending and the fiscal stimulus plan.

Other markets. Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.65% from 3.58% late Friday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the yen and fell against the euro.

U.S. light crude oil for March delivery rose 89 cents to $89.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell $13.50 to $900 an ounce.

[acintra]

Investors will need to pay attention to earnings reports from News Corp., Disney and Time Warner to find out just how bad the economy is.


February 4 2008: 10:13 AM EST

Shares of three big media titans have been hit hard in the past few months on recession fears.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Are we heading into a recession? Wall Street may have a better idea after three big media companies report quarterly results this week.

News Corp (NWS, Fortune 500)., Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) and my parent company, Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500) rely heavily on consumer spending and advertising. So if these firms are starting to see signs that consumers and large corporations are pulling back, that will not be encouraging news for the markets, which rebounded a bit last week thanks to the Fed's rate cut and excitement about Microsoft's (MSFT, Fortune 500) takeover bid for Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500).

Unfortunately, the news coming out of these companies may not be all that rosy.

TalkBack: Do you think a recession is inevitable?
News Corp., which owns the Fox television network, recently increased its reliance on advertising even more with its $5 billion purchase of Dow Jones. Rupert Murdoch's company will report its results after the closing bell Monday.

Disney owns the ABC network as well as cable channel ESPN. And it has arguably the biggest exposure to discretionary consumer spending through its theme-park business. The House of Mouse's numbers come out Tuesday afternoon.

And then there's Time Warner. In addition to CNNMoney.com, the company owns a large magazine publishing business, cable networks, AOL and cable operator Time Warner Cable (TWC). Cable companies like Time Warner Cable and rival Comcast (CMCSA) have been plagued by concerns that the subprime mortgage crisis could lead to slower subscriber growth this year. Time Warner reports its results Wednesday morning.

Wall Street is clearly worried. Shares of the three companies have each plunged more than 10% in the past six months on fears of an economic slowdown.

Last week, Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet downgraded Disney to a "sell," citing concerns that the company's theme-park division will see lower demand this year and will be coupled with a "broader ad slowdown."

Advertising spending should get a lift from the presidential election and Olympics this year. But there are growing concerns that this boost may not be enough to counter weak consumer spending trends. Simply put, if consumers tighten their belts, big advertisers will soon follow.

So it will be critical to see if Murdoch, Disney CEO Bob Iger and new Time Warner chief Jeff Bewkes are upbeat during their quarterly calls or if they have reason to be cautious. If it's the latter, then this newfound sense of optimism on Wall Street that we started to see last week may be short lived.

How about them Giants? Perk up, investors: The New York Giants, an old NFL team, pulled off one of the biggest upsets in history by beating the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl. And according to the old Super Bowl indicator, any time an old NFL team wins the big game, the markets should go up.

Now of course, this is really a silly statistical phenomenon that nobody should rely on to make investing decisions. But still....if the market does wind up rallying for the remainder of the year, this Giants fan will certainly thank Eli Manning, Michael Strahan and David Tyree (David Tyree?!?) for helping to get Wall Street back on track. Wow.

[acintra]

Até estou de acordo com que esta é a altura ideal para investir, mas com muito cuidado e com prazos muito curtos.(Voltei a entrar forte no final da semana passada)
Não estou de acordo, com os USA entrarem em recessão e as acções não desvalorizarem. Acho que levam um tombo e peras.

[TP1]

F&C defende que esta é a altura de pôr dinheiro nas acções
A F&C está a antever uma recessão económica nos Estados Unidos. No entanto, desvaloriza o impacto desse cenário nos mercados. "Não achamos que a recessão possa levar a uma contracção drástica nos mercados de capitais", afirmou Paul Niven, director da área de alocação de activos da F&C.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Patrícia Silva Dias
patriciadias@mediafin.pt



A F&C está a antever uma recessão económica nos Estados Unidos. No entanto, desvaloriza o impacto desse cenário nos mercados. "Não achamos que a recessão possa levar a uma contracção drástica nos mercados de capitais", afirmou Paul Niven, director da área de alocação de activos da F&C.

Niven argumenta que esta recessão distingue-se das passadas pelas avaliações do mercados. Segundo o responsável, os preços que os investidores estão a pagar face aos lucros (PER - "price earnings ratio") estão em níveis muito inferiores aos de períodos de recessão anteriores. "Em média, há uma queda de 20% dos lucros em recessões. O que quer dizer que, actualmente, os resultados terão cair um terço", explicou.

O responsável acredita que a recente correcção dos mercados accionistas resultou, sobretudo, de uma onda de pânico por parte dos investidores, a qual atingiu uma dimensão que não se via desde o "bear market" de 2002/3. E é esta maior aversão ao risco que o leva a concluir que "esta é a altura para pôr dinheiro nas acções". Na sua opinião, as acções ainda são a classe de activos com avaliações mais atractivas.

Vai haver uma "bolha" nos mercados emergentes

Neste contexto de alguma turbulência, Paul Niven considera que "os mercados emergentes estão melhor posicionados para serem os mais beneficiados da última fase do 'bull market' (alta das acções)".

Também para Jeff Chowdhry, responsável da F&C pelos mercados emergentes, estes países são os motores da economia global. Brasil, Rússia e Egipto são os preferidos. No entanto, é preciso alguma cautela.

"Garanto que estamos a caminhar para um bolha especulativa nos mercados emergentes. Só não sei é quando vai rebentar", alerta Chowdhry. O responsável assegura, apenas, que esse cenário não irá ocorrer este ano. "Nunca vi uma bolha rebentar com os PER tão baixos", afirma.

[acintra]

February 4 2008: 5:30 AM EST

As credit woes seep into prime home equity lending, a spigot of ready cash for some homeowners is turned off.
By Roddy Boyd, writer

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- One of the last sources of ready cash for homeowners looking to get money from their house appears to be shutting down and the results aren't likely to be pretty for the economy.

Last week, buried deep in the ugly details of Countrywide Financial Corp.'s (CFC, Fortune 500) earnings release, was the news that its $32.4 billion portfolio of prime HELOCs - home equity lines of credit - had begun to rapidly deteriorate. The reeling Calabasas, Ca.-lender was forced to take a $704 million charge related to homeowners' inability to pay back equity they extracted from their homes.

The structure of these loans appears to spell trouble for Countrywide and other home lenders with big home equity loan books. According to an overlooked Moody's Investors Services note that came out last Wednesday, once a certain threshold of losses is achieved in a home equity loan securitization pool, the bond holder is paid off ahead of the lender.

What's worse is that it's difficult to see how large a lender's exposure is to home equity loans. Known as rapid amortization, this risk is treated as a contingent liability for Countrywide and other home equity loan lenders and is carried off balance sheet, until deterioration occurs and the lender goes on the hook for the loans. Countrywide is the nation's biggest home equity lender, with around 9% of the market.

In the short-term, this is just another blow for a investors in the financial sector. Longer-term however, it looks like a lot of ready cash is getting taken away from homeowners, at least in California. Coupled with rising unemployment, this could pose a major headache for already strapped homeowners.

To head off more defaults, Countywide sent out letters to 122,000 homeowners last week informing them that their home equity credit lines were shut down since their estimated home values had dropped below their loan amounts.

Right behind Countrywide was Chase Home Lending, which notified borrowers in Los Angeles, Imperial and Orange Counties that they could tap their credit lines for no more than 70% of the value of their house. Previously, the limit had been 90%.

The Calculated Risk blog, which specializes in real estate and mortgage finance issues, has estimated that mortgage equity withdrawals for the fourth quarter totaled $145 billion. If tightening lending standards are put rapidly into place for home equity loans, it is not inconceivable that $50 billion or more of spending power is instantly removed from the economy.

In other words, at least one-third of the recently passed $150 billion stimulus package is already canceled out.

[acintra]

Gross domestic product slowed to a 0.6% growth rate in the fourth quarter, raising both recession fears and hope for another deep Fed cut

January 30 2008: 8:51 AM EST

Economic growth was much weaker than expected.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The economy grew at a much slower pace in the last three months of the year, according to a government report Wednesday that came in well below Wall Street expectations.

The report raised fears of a recession and hopes for another significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, grew at an annual rate of 0.6%, adjusted for inflation, in the fourth quarter, according to the Commerce Department, down from 4.9% in the final reading of growth in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast GDP would slow to a 1.2%.

The report comes amid rising concern that the U.S. economy is falling into a recession, with some economists arguing the downturn started in the final month of 2007.

It also comes as the Fed concludes a two-day meeting to consider whether or not to cut interest rates once again in order to spur the economy and ward off a recession. The central bank has already lowered rates by 1.75 percentage points since September, including an emergency 0.75 percentage point cut, also known as a 75 basis point cut, a week ago.

Investors are betting that the Fed announces at least another quarter percentage point cut, or 25 basis points, when it announces its decision at 2:15 p.m. ET, with those buying fed funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were pricing in a 70% chance of a half-point, or 50 basis point cut, ahead of the GDP report.

But while the weakness in the report suggested that the Fed might move aggressively to cut rates, the inflation readings in the report could be a concern for the central bank. The so-called price deflator, which measures prices overall, rose at a 2.6% annual rate, up from only a 1% rise in the third quarter but in line with forecasts.

Perhaps of greater concern is that the so-called core PCE deflator - a more closely watched inflation reading that measures prices that individuals pay excluding volatile food and energy prices - rose 2.7%, up from a 2.0% reading in the third quarter and nearly double the 1.4% rise in the second quarter.

The Fed is generally seen as wanting to see that reading rise between 1% and 2%, meaning the latest reading is far from its so-called comfort zone.

[acintra]

Agora mesmo que apresentem bons resultados, o que interessa é as previsões para 2008.

Futures slip ahead of a slew of corporate earnings; overseas markets rally. January 24 2008: 4:59 AM EST


LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stock futures slipped early Thursday after a disappointing outlook from eBay cast a cloud over the tech sector and investors awaited another batch of corporate earnings.

At 4:41 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were lower, indicating a rough start for Wall Street.

The mood is likely to be set by the results due out ahead of the market open from a number of firms, including AT&T (T, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500) and homebuilder Lennar (LEN, Fortune 500).

Late Wednesday, eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) reported fourth-quarter results that topped Wall Street's estimates. But the company's forecast for the current quarter and rest of the year disappointed investors.

A number of tech firms, including Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) and Motorola (MOT, Fortune 500), have issued weak outlooks recently, deepening concerns about the economic slowdown.

Recession fears have hammered stocks this month, although the major gauges managed to end the session higher Wednesday. Stocks rallied, lifted in part by talk of a plan to bail out troubled bond insurers.

In global trade, most Asian markets rose for a second session, although Hong Kong stocks finished sharply lower. European markets charged ahead, even after French bank Societe Generale said it had discovered a $7 billion fraud caused by a single trader.

[Açor3]

Gostei daquela parte que os bancos já descontaram 20% mas, ainda terão outro tanto para descontar.Isto está bonito está...

[iurp]

"Mercados deverão continuar a desvalorizar mais um mês"
O gestor de fundos do Barclays, Tim Bond, estima, em entrevista ao Jornal de Negócios, que as bolsas mundiais vão descontar até 25% as revisões em baixa de resultados.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Patrícia Abreu
pabreu@mediafin.pt



Tim Bond

Gestor do Barclays
O gestor de fundos do Barclays, Tim Bond, estima, em entrevista ao Jornal de Negócios, que as bolsas mundiais vão descontar até 25% as revisões em baixa de resultados.

Por que está o mercado a desvalorizar de forma tão acentuada? Acha que há demasiado pânico entre os investidores?

O mercado accionista, nos últimos seis, sete meses, tem estado a descontar os resultados das empresas. É uma reacção bastante racional, que está em linha com as expectativas dos resultados. Até ao momento, os mercados já descontaram uma queda de 20% nos lucros das empresas. Esta desvalorização era algo de que já estávamos à espera. Agora, temos que ver a extensão dos prejuízos no sistema financeiro.

Na sua nota de "research" diz que os bancos ainda precisam de aumentar os seus rácios de liquidez. Considera que vamos continuar a assistir a resultados decepcionantes por parte dos bancos?

Acredito que muitos bancos já estavam à espera destes resultados e muitos deles já estão a tomar medidas. Mas outros ainda não estão a agir. Ainda não temos ideia clara da dimensão das perdas no sistema financeiro.

Durante quanto tempo vai continuar este efeito "bear market" e o sentimento de incerteza?

O risco do momento é que está a começar um período de abrandamento económico, mas o risco é o mesmo que havia em 1991. Provavelmente, teremos mais um mês de quedas, com os próximos quatro a cinco meses sem tendência definida. Para as principais praças europeias e para as norte-americanas, que já descontaram 20%, não acredito que haja perdas superiores a 10%, a partir de agora. Pode dizer--se que o pior já passou. Acho que as bolsas vão descontar até 25%.

A intervenção dos bancos centrais é suficiente para travar a queda dos mercados?

O corte de juros da Reserva Federal (Fed) já abrandou um pouco o pânico, mas não pode impedir o efeito "bear market". As autoridades monetárias não podem impedir o abrandamento económico. Podem abrandar o pânico, mas não podem parar o "bear market".

O BCE também vai ter que cortar o preço do dinheiro, tal como aconteceu com a Fed?

Sim, o BCE vai cortar os juros em breve. Nós prevemos uma redução de 50 pontos-base nos próximos meses.

Este é um bom momento para entrar no mercado? Em que sectores aconselha que se aposte?

Depende do tipo de investidor que é. Agora, pode investir um pouco de dinheiro, mas não demasiado. Os investidores não se devem apressar, ainda é cedo. A longo prazo, os investidores podem apostar nos sectores da indústria e da energia. São sectores que vão ser muito interessantes. Os bancos também vão ser interessantes, mas não para já. Eles já caíram 20% e vão cair mais 20%. Estimo que os bancos descontem 40%.

[acintra]

Recession 2008: How bad it can get

Many economists are predicting a short, shallow recession. But there's also a significant risk of a more serious economic decline.



A bear market and fears of a recession are wearing on small investors who are focused on the long term.
Play video

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The sputtering U.S. economy has gotten everyone from the financial markets to the Federal Reserve to Congress in a panic.

But here's a disheartening message for those already worried about economic growth -- it could get much worse.

Most economists who believe a recession is already here or at least near are looking for a relatively short and mild downturn, perhaps lasting only two or three quarters.

But many of those same economists say they also can envision a worse-case scenario where spending by consumers and businesses falls off sharply, unemployment heads higher than normal during a typical recession and housing and credit market problems worsen.

"I can easily imagine [the economy] going into a free fall," said Dean Baker, the chief economist for the Center for Economic and Policy Research. "The danger is that housing prices continue to tumble and accelerate, people's ability to pull out equity will evaporate, and you'll see a serious downturn in consumption."

We talked to three more leading economists to find out their biggest economic fears. Here's what they had to say.

Greenback blues David Wyss, chief economist with Standard & Poor's, said that among his biggest concerns is that overseas investors could pull back on investing in the dollar and other U.S. assets.

That could cause an even greater sense of fear among U.S. consumers and businesses, as stock prices fall and bond yields rise, which in turn would lift mortgage rates and be a bigger drag on the already battered housing market.

"Americans could just get scared by a barrage of bad news," Wyss said. "The stock market could continue going down because of foreigners pulling money out, and between that and home values going through the floor, it could lead to a real pullback of spending, particularly by Baby Boomers who are getting close to retirement."

Wyss said he's also concerned that oil prices could shoot higher, even if a recession cuts into global demand. He said supply disruptions in the Middle East could send oil prices up to $150 a barrel and help deepen any recession.

Wyss said that in his worst case scenario, the unemployment rate would climb to 7.5 percent by early 2009, up from its current level of 5 percent.

He also believes gross domestic product, the broad measure of the nation's economic activity, could wind up as much as 2 percent lower at the end of 2008 than it was at the end of 2007. That would be the biggest downturn since 1982. Many of those forecasting a recession this year are expecting GDP to show a slight gain by the end of the year.

House of pain. Edward McKelvey, senior economist at Goldman Sachs, agreed with Wyss that, in a worst case scenario, GDP could fall 2 percent this year..

His biggest fear is that home prices could fall much further in the coming months. In fact, Goldman and economists at Merrill Lynch have both predicted that home values could fall another 15 percent, on top of the 10 percent drop from earlier peaks that has already taken place.

McKelvey said further declines could cause much deeper problems for consumers and credit markets.

"One of the most likely candidates would be credit markets acting more violently than we thought, a tightening of the supply of credit to businesses and households," he said when asked what could bring about his worst case outlook.

"You could also see a more substantial response by businesses to the downturn through layoffs, cuts in their spending and business plans," he added.

Bank woes just beginning. Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust, said he thinks there's a good chance that the economic pullback will be much steeper than now widely assumed. This weak forecast is based on his belief that the billions in dollars of writedowns already reported by Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), JP Morgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and other big banks are just the beginning of the problem in the financial sector.

Kasriel said that if banks have to report more losses due to bad bets on subprime mortgages, they will be unwilling, or unable, to make large loans to businesses and consumers.

So even if the Fed keeps cutting interest rates, the impact of the cuts may be "less potent" than rate cuts in previous recessions since consumers and businesses may not be able to borrow enough to keep spending. That could make this recession more like the one in 1991-92 than the relatively short and mild recession of 2001.

"Historically, and not surprisingly, recessions accompanied by declines in consumer spending tend to be more severe. And people are going to be constrained from spending by the declines in housing," Kasriel said.

He added that state and local governments might have to cut back spending as a result of declining tax revenue. And that would be another sizable blow to the overall economy.

"People forget about state and local government spending, but it represents 11 percent of GDP," Kasriel said.

[R_Martins]

se eles nao baixarem nessa altura voltamos ao mesmo... se baixarem é sinal que isto nao melhorou desde a ultima vez.. por isso nao sei.

acho que com isto estão a adiar o inadiável ou até a prejudicar, pois taxas de juros mais baixas no caso da america nao vai resolver o problema do subprime. se clalhar vai prejudicar pois mais familias aproveitam para se endividar...

ainda por cima eles agora oferecem creditos tendo como fianças o 401k (reformas) por isso vamos em frente com os creditos que é o que se quer... alguem ha-de pagar isto tudo um dia...

O velho Alan, quando era governador do banco central doo EUA, á 5/6 anos atrás baixava os juros cada vez que ia fazer pipi.Resumindo: As famílias endividaram-se ( as famílias endividam-se sempre com juros baixos ou mesmo juros altos)e os índices bolsistas bateram com os costados no chão...
Rmrtins

[acintra]

Bernanke and company are using up their limited ammunition, but genuine problems remain with the low dollar and U.S. debt, argues Allan Sloan.
By Allan Sloan, senior editor at large

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NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Forget all those rational explanations about why foreign stocks markets, especially in Asia, have been melting down for two days. Despite what you've read, seen and heard, those declines weren't caused by fears of what a recession in the U.S. would do to the profits of companies whose stocks trade in places like India, China and Russia.

Rather, the meltdowns were flat-out market panics, where rationality gets tossed out the window as everyone tries to head for the door at once and gets trampled. Go-go markets, especially in Asia, had risen to ridiculous heights - they were going up because they were going up, and momentum fed on itself. Now, they're going down because they're going down, and momentum is feeding on itself again.

The fact that the Federal Reserve Board announced an emergency cut of 0.75 percent in short-term rates shows that the Fed thinks the problem is a market panic rather than economic fundamentals. Normally, the Fed would have waited until mid-day next Tuesday - the second day of its scheduled two-day meeting - to announce a rate cut. Announcing an out-of-schedule cut today before the stock market opened shows that its motivation is to calm the markets rather than to reinvigorate the U.S. economy.

Here's why. First, it won't be clear until the summer whether a recession is in fact underway in the U.S. Even though the nation's economy seems likely to have shrunk in December, there's no such thing as a one-month recession. "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months," (my italics) according to the definitive authorities on such things, the business cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Second, even if you believe that the Fed's cut in short-term rates will stimulate the economy, that won't happen overnight. If you took a Fed economist out for a few drinks and promised not to quote him, he'd tell you that the benefits of a cut take at least six months to percolate through the economy. There have been market panics and freeze-ups all over the world since last summer, when the junk mortgage meltdown in the U.S. started gathering speed. These have been confined mostly to the debt markets, which - unlike the Dow Industrials - don't resonate with most people and can't be summed up neatly in one familiar number, as the Dow is.

But now there's a panic in the stock markets, where it's visible for all to see. Last year, 41 of the 100 best-performing stocks were from India, according to Russell Indexes. The Shanghai stock market almost doubled.

This makes no sense unless you consider the Indian and Shanghai markets to have been undiscovered before 2007 - which they weren't. Had the Fed not done anything today, the Dow could easily have fallen 600 or 800 points. Instead, it closed down less than 130.

The problem is that the Fed has only a limited amount of rate-cut ammunition, and expended a lot of it today. It's expected by the markets to cut rates again next week, and will have used up most of its bullets.

I don't want to get into the what-should-the-Fed do game - I'm a recovering English major, the Fed is full of brilliant people with doctoral degrees and access to information that I don't have - but I'm growing increasingly uneasy watching short-term rates in the U.S. fall when we're so dependent on foreign money to cover our trade deficit and the U.S. budget deficit.

I'm also less than thrilled watching commodities prices rise, although oil has been drifting down lately. There are already worrying signs that foreigners, who keep score in their home currencies, have grown tired of losing money because the value of the dollar's dropping. Should the dollar's decline turn into a rout, a distinct possibility, things are going to get really messy.

Look. We can't depend on the Fed - or any individual institution - to save us. The Fed isn't all-powerful - and wasn't all-powerful under Alan Greenspan, either. Current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke doesn't have a magic wand he can wave to make everything all right on both Wall Street and Main Street. He's doing the best he can, but the Fed's influence isn't what it was when financial markets were much smaller than they are now, and far more regulated.

Because of its budget and trade deficits, the U.S. has to worry about what the rest of the world thinks. That's what happens when you're a debtor nation. There are huge risks in cutting short rates, and risks, too, in having Uncle Sam borrow another $150 billion to $200 billion (primarily from foreigners) to finance a short-term stimulus package.

The bottom line: In the long-term, markets are generally rational. In the short term they are...well, markets. They're prone to irrational run-ups and irrational declines. Don't expect them to act the way you want them to. And don't expect the Fed to save you if they don't.

[djpirra]

Concordo com o fundamentalista. Para alem de todas as surpresas que os "americas" nos podem trazer, temos de ter em conta que o "orgulho americano" faz mover montanhas...
Não quero dizer com isto que não exista um problema, e que tudo é cor de rosa, mas sim que esse problema terá a todo o custo de ser ultrapassado o mais rapido possivel pelos americanos.
Ou acham que os truques e dicas lhes devem estar a faltar? (Eu acho que não)

Entretanto a Europa e resto do Mundo treme perante os mesmos de sempre e em tudo, para variar...

[fsma]

Se em 1929 não existia Estado Social também actualmente os EUA não o têm.

O tempo que o banco central americano levou a reagir, comparativamente com a velocidade e método de transacionar da época, não deve ter sido tão lento...

[fundamentalista]

Caríssimos cibernautas,


Na minha modesta opinião os americanos vão superar novamente este ciclo, uma vez que têm agressividade e empenho, ainda que a economia e as bolsas possam sofrer a curto prazo.

Comparar a situação actual com a de pré-1929 parece-me um pouco ousado, para ser modesto. Aliás essa situação ocorre sempre que existem movimentos desse tipo. Eu recomendo um livro do K. Galbraith chamado 1987 (um excelente livro com carácter jornalístico!!!), revisitar o crash, onde ele compara as opiniões dos analistas imediatamente após o crash de 1987 com a situação que se vivia em 1929.
Em 1929 não existia Estado Social nem mecanismos estabilizadores e o banco central em vez de descer as taxas de juro esteve imóvel durante muito tempo...


Tenho trabalhado com norte-americanos na minha vida profissional, como advisor de alguns fundos imobiliários em actividades em Portugal e já estive em NY, uma cidade onde se trabalha e respira frenéticamente. Comparativamente com a média dos europeus o resultado é 10 a zero. Acredito por isso que eles vão superar esta má fase que estão a viver, derivada da última queda das taxas de juro e excesso de especulação na área imobiliária. A curto prazo os ajustamentos são rápidos pois é a maneira de se resolverem os assuntos nos EUA (viram a velocidade da apresentação do pacote fiscal e a rapidez da FED?)....como eles dizem em NY quando começamos a falar sem ser objectivamente "Dont waste my New York Time"....é que viver em Nova Iorque é caro e por isso o tempo de trabalho tem de ser utilizado para obter resultados.

cumprimentos
fundamentalista

[acintra]

Full coverage

Recession worries roil Wall Street
Stocks cut some losses after a miserable start to the day, but declines remain. Global markets plunge. Emergency interest rate cut fails to soothe investors.

January 22 2008: 2:00 PM EST



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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks cut losses by Tuesday afternoon, but remained in the red as investors continued to weigh the likelihood of a global economic slowdown and a U.S. recession.

An emergency interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve seemed to add to jitters, raising worries that the economic slowdown is worse than thought - and that the central bank is behind the curve.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost about 1 percent, cutting bigger morning losses. The blue-chip barometer opened the session down by more than 450 points.

The broader S&P 500 (INX) index and the Nasdaq composite both inched lower, recovering from earlier losses.

The Russell 2000 (RUT.X) small-cap index erased its losses and turned positive. The Russell is considered to be in a bear market, having tumbled more than 20 percent off its highs from last summer.

Stocks tumbled at the open, in tune with markets around the globe, on worries that the United States is headed for a recession, if it isn't already in one, amid the credit and housing market crisis.

Global markets also tumbled Monday, while U.S. markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

That global market selloff prompted the Federal Reserve to hold an emergency telephone conference Monday night, and a decision to slash the fed funds rate was announced Tuesday.

After an initial knee-jerk reaction from investors, stocks managed to shore up some losses.

"The markets opened sharply lower, but then cool heads prevailed," said Ram Kolluri, president at Global Investment Management.

"The large issues we are facing have not gone away and will continue to play out for some time," Kolluri said. "But I think the crisis scenario that has been floating around Wall Street has gotten overstretched."

Stocks have had a miserable start to 2008. The Dow was down 8.8 percent as of Friday's close, while the S&P 500 was down 9.7 percent and the Nasdaq had fallen 11.8 percent.

One comfort had been bets that at least global growth was holding up and that it might offset the weakness in the U.S. economy. But the slumping global stock markets raised worries about slowing global growth as well.

Fed slashes key rate to 3.5 percent
The central bank opted to cut the fed funds rate, a key overnight bank lending rate that affects all kinds of consumer loans, by three-quarters of a percentage point, or 75 basis points, to 3.50 percent. There are 100 basis points in one percentage point.

The central bank also cut the discount rate, which affects bank loans, by 75 basis points to 4 percent.

In its statement, the bank said it was making the move due to the weakening economic outlook and increased risks to growth.

This was the first emergency interest rate cut since September 2001, when the Fed cut interest rates in the midst of the recession and the panic following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. It was also the biggest interest rate cut since 1984.

"The Fed is saying they will do whatever is necessary to support the banking system," said Kolluri.

Wall Street still nervous: Stock investors have been looking for the Federal Reserve to either cut interest rates aggressively at next week's regularly scheduled meeting, or to hold an emergency meeting and cut rates early. Yet, the Fed's decision did little to soothe investors' fears and may have even exacerbated them.

"Even though this is what market participants have been screaming for, it may have shaken their confidence in the Fed's ability," said John Davidson, president and CEO at PartnerRe Asset Management.

"I think the inter-meeting cut frightened the market, making investors think that there must be something wrong if the Fed is going to do this, when it's not done very often in history," Davidson said.

Government help so far: The central bank has cut interest rates three previous times since September and has loaned $70 billion to banks in a series of overnight auctions.

Additionally, the Bush Administration and Congress are currently working on a fiscal stimulus plan to bring tax relief to consumers and businesses.

The combination of both monetary and fiscal stimulus should be the key to restoring investor confidence, but it takes time to get the money moving through the system, said Kim Caughey, senior equities analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

She said that Tuesday's rate cut doesn't really take the pressure off the markets, because it doesn't fix the fundamental problem of growth. However, it is important in that it shows that Congress and the Fed are working together.

When the government's plan was announced at the end of last week, it "didn't feel like the Fed was working with legislators on a coordinated effort," Caughey said. "Now it feels more like that's the case."

"I don't think the cut today really take the pressure off, because it doesn't fix the fundamental problem, which is growth," Caughey said.

Wall Street debates Fed's next move
Selling was broad based but improved from the morning, with 23 of 30 Dow stocks tumbling. The biggest gainer was Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500), which rose 7 percent.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners three to two on 1.42 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers two to one on 1.76 billion shares.

Treasury prices surged in a classic flight-to-quality, with the yield on the 10-year note falling to 3.55 percent from 3.65 percent late Friday. Treasury markets were closed Monday for the holiday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

[acintra]

Estou a ver as munições da FED a esgotarem-se e os mercados não sobem.
Corremos o risco de os Bancos Centrais e Governos, baixarem juros, leiloarem dinheiro com boas taxas, perdoarem dividas...e ninguem acreditar que está-se a vestir uma recessão.
Estamos sentados no Touro mecãnico, por isso agarrem-se...

[karlitos]

se eles nao baixarem nessa altura voltamos ao mesmo... se baixarem é sinal que isto nao melhorou desde a ultima vez.. por isso nao sei.

acho que com isto estão a adiar o inadiável ou até a prejudicar, pois taxas de juros mais baixas no caso da america nao vai resolver o problema do subprime. se clalhar vai prejudicar pois mais familias aproveitam para se endividar...

ainda por cima eles agora oferecem creditos tendo como fianças o 401k (reformas) por isso vamos em frente com os creditos que é o que se quer... alguem ha-de pagar isto tudo um dia...

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Rebates: Who might be left out
Pressure is growing for Washington to boost the economy. Democrats and Republicans want to offer rebates to consumers, but they differ on who should get them.

January 22 2008: 12:12 PM EST


Lawmakers hope that a one-time tax rebate will spur consumers to spend - putting the money back into the economy.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As financial markets around the world reel, pressure is building on Washington policymakers to bridge their differences over a plan to offer consumers tax rebates to stimulate the U.S. economy.

President Bush is set to meet with congressional leaders Tuesday afternoon to negotiate ways to jumpstart the economy. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, echoing a sentiment expressed by leading Democrats in recent days, said he is confident a deal can be worked out.

A one-time tax rebate is likely to be the centerpiece of any so-called stimulus package, which could total $150 billion in federal rebates, unemployment benefits and business tax breaks.

But Democrats and Republicans still disagree on who should actually get rebates.

Bush has indicated that he favors giving rebates to those who pay income taxes. It's believed the administration would want to generate the funds for the rebate by eliminating the 10 percent tax bracket, which applies to roughly the first $8,000 of income for single filers and the first $16,000 of income for married couples filing jointly. That would mean taxpayers could get rebates of up to $800 if single, or $1,600 if married.

But Democrats contend such an approach would mean tens of millions of households would get only a partial rebate or none at all - the liberal Center for Budget and Policy Priorities estimates as many as 65 million. That group includes those whose tax bill is so low that their rebate would be much less than $800 or $1,600, as well as low-income households with no income tax liability because of credits and other tax breaks. It would also include households that do not file a tax return.

At the very least, Democrats say, every worker who pays Social Security taxes should get a rebate. The payroll tax - 6.2 percent of a worker's wages - is what's taken out of paychecks to fund Social Security, no matter a worker's annual income. The same family that may owe no income tax nevertheless has in most cases paid 6.2 percent of its income into Social Security.

The thinking is that more of lower- and middle-income households should be included in any rebate plan because they are more likely to spend a bigger chunk of their rebate than are higher-income households.

Proponents of the rebate-for-all point to two studies of a 2001 income tax rebate. Those studies found that low-income households and households that had maxed out their credit or had few liquid assets spent more of their rebates than anyone else.

The 2001 rebate, which was based on the 10 percent income tax bracket, excluded the tens of millions of households that Democrats and various economists would like to include in this go-round.

Congressional Budget Office Director Peter Orszag, testifying before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday, said the 2001 experience suggests that expanding the pool of lower-income households who get the rebate this time would lead to an "appreciable" economic boost.

"For any given pot of money, the more you target the lower-income, credit-constrained households, the bigger the bang for your buck," Orszag said.

One of the 2001 studies found that consumers spent two-thirds of their rebates within six months, boosting aggregate consumption by nearly 3 percent in the third quarter of 2001 and more than 2 percent in the fourth quarter.

But that finding also signals that even if this year's rebate goes only to those who pay income tax - roughly 60 percent of all tax filers - it has as good a chance of stimulating the economy as did the 2001 rebate. Of course, as with any attempts by Washington to juice the economy, there are no guarantees.