Gouveia e Melo continua a perder terreno

[RJCP]

Mas a esperança parece ser essa, que com as ultimas mexidas do Fed provoquem os movimentos de fusão e aquisição aumentem.

Hoje de manhã a noticia de abertura era a compra de 12% da Rio Tinto. Ao fim da manhã Opa sobre a Yahoo, apesar da Opa ser com capitais proprios.

[leaozinho_1969]

Uma noticia que passou mais ou menos despercebida mas que pode agitar os mercados europeus caso a ameaça seja cumprida.

No bloomberg apareceu como destaque durante breves segundos e depois desapareceu.

"Garganas Says Inflation `Major Concern,' ECB on Alert (Update2)

By Christian Vits and Harry Papachristou

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank council member Nicholas Garganas said the bank won't be driven by investor expectations of an interest-rate cut as inflation remains ``a major concern.''

``Our monetary policy is not led on what the markets expect,'' Garganas, who also heads the Greek central bank, said in an interview late yesterday in his office in Athens. ``I'm very concerned about the high inflation rate. Inflation risks remain on the upside.''

Investors are betting the ECB will lower its benchmark rate this year as the fallout of the U.S. housing market slump cools economic growth in Europe. ECB policy makers have refrained from following their U.S. counterparts in paring interest rates after inflation overshot the bank's limit for five months, to reach a 14-year high in January.

Consumer prices in the 15 countries sharing the euro rose 3.2 percent in January from a year earlier. Inflation, which the ECB aims to keep just below 2 percent, averaged 2.1 percent in 2007.

The ECB will act to prevent so-called second-round effects from emerging, such as inflation-driven demands for higher pay, Ireland's central bank said separately today.

`Act Preemptively'

If ``there's a risk that we'll not achieve our objective in the medium term, we'll act preemptively and decisively,'' Garganas, 71, said. His remarks echo those of ECB council member Axel Weber, who last week described bets on rate cuts as ``wishful thinking.''

The implied rate on the Euribor interest-rate futures contract maturing in December rose three basis points to 3.64 percent after the interview was published. That's still down from 4.36 percent a month ago, indicating traders are pricing in two rate cuts. The ECB's benchmark refinancing rate is 4 percent.

``As so often, markets overestimate the link between U.S. and European monetary policy,'' said Klaus Baader, chief European economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in London. At the same time, Baader sees ``a growing polarization of opinion between different governing council members.''

Differing Remarks

Council member Yves Mersch on Jan. 16 said risks to economic growth are increasing, suggesting the ECB is toning down its inflation-fighting rhetoric. His comments led to the biggest drop in the euro in a month.

Last week, Mersch's fellow council member Christian Noyer said rising consumer prices and slowing global economic growth are complicating interest-rate policy.

``We have to wait and see how the situation develops,'' Garganas said. ``Of course, the situation in financial markets is one of the factors on which we base our assessment.''

Losses from securities linked to subprime mortgages, which are aimed at people with poor credit histories, may exceed $265 billion as regional U.S. banks, credit unions and overseas financial institutions write down the value of their holdings, Standard & Poor's said yesterday.

The International Monetary Fund cut its euro-region growth estimate by half a point to 1.6 percent this week, saying that the turmoil in financial markets has ``reached a new phase -- a phase where credit concerns now extend beyond the subprime sector.''

Falling Confidence

Confidence among European executives and consumers fell in January more than economists forecast as inflation accelerated and U.S. growth slowed to 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The world's biggest economy hasn't expanded less since 2002.

The Federal Reserve this week lowered its main rate by half a point to 3 percent, the second cut in nine days, and indicated its willingness to do so again to prevent a U.S. recession.

Garganas indicated the ECB sees no need to react on the widening spread between interest rates in the euro region and the U.S. ``We don't discuss decisions by other central banks.''

While European economic growth will cool, ``we're coming from pretty high levels, so it's not as if this is a doomsday scenario,'' ECB council member and Maltese central bank Governor Michael Bonello said in a Bloomberg Television interview in London late yesterday.

The ECB predicted in December that euro-region growth would slow to about 2 percent in 2008 from 2.6 percent last year.

``The risks surrounding economic growth are on the downside,'' Garganas said. Still, ``our baseline scenario has not changed. The impact of the slowdown in the U.S. is to some extent offset by continued strength in emerging market economies.''

The IMF forecast emerging and developing countries will expand 6.9 percent this year, compared with 7.8 percent in 2007. ``Strong momentum of domestic demand in some emerging-market economies provides upside potential,'' the fund said Jan. 29.

The ECB remains focused on fighting inflation, Garganas said. ``We have our own mandate to fulfill, assess the euro area situation and decide on the basis of our own assessment.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Christian Vits in Athens at cvits@bloomberg.net ; Harry Papachristou in Athens at hpapachristo@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: February 1, 2008 09:15 EST "

[acintra]

Pelos vistos não, quando acabei de escrever o post fui ver os gráficos e toma...

[leaozinho_1969]

Esta noticia parece estar a superar a noticia da OPA. Vamos ver por quanto tempo tal a volatilidade dos mercados.

"Bush Subprime Plan Undermined, States Shun Borrowers (Update1)

By Michael McDonald

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's proposal to help 1 million subprime borrowers avoid foreclosure with tax- exempt bonds has an obstacle: states don't want the risk any more than private lenders do.

The state housing agencies that are already offering mortgage refinancing options are turning away so many applicants that they've had no need to raise funds. Since New York said it would commit $100 million in July, three of the 500 loans envisioned have been made. Massachusetts extended four loans under a $250 million program started in August, and Ohio made just 36 of the thousands anticipated by Governor Ted Strickland.

The reluctance to lend threatens to undermine a pivotal part of the president's plan for alleviating the worst housing slump in 26 years. More than 50 percent of subprime borrowers are being rejected by state programs because their homes have lost too much value or they've accumulated excessive debt, estimates Geoffrey Cooper, emerging markets director at a unit of MGIC Investment Co., the country's biggest mortgage insurer.

``These things are basically public relations gimmicks,'' said Bruce Marks, chief executive officer of Neighborhood Assistance Corp. of America. The Boston-based nonprofit organization negotiated an agreement with Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. home lender, in October to modify rates and terms on $16 billion of subprime mortgages to prevent foreclosures.

State of Union

Bush proposed the municipal bonds Dec. 6 as part of a larger plan to provide relief to homeowners, and pushed for them again in his State of the Union address on Jan. 28. Housing agencies would get the temporary authority to refinance subprime loans with proceeds from lower-cost tax-exempt bonds, he said.

Right now, the government allows the sale of such debt only when borrowers are buying a new home; if states need money for refinancing, they sell taxable bonds that require them, and ultimately the homeowners, to pay higher interest rates.

Each year the government sets a limit on tax-exempt bonds for the 50 state housing programs, and $10 billion was authorized in 2007, according to the National Council of State Housing Agencies in Washington. They weren't allowed to use the funds for refinancing, and avoided even new borrowers whose credit scores put them in the riskiest subprime category, said Wendy Dolber, a housing analyst at Standard & Poor's in New York.

Didn't Compete

Unlike private companies, the agencies are required by law to document the income of borrowers, she said. They also don't offer the adjustable-interest mortgages that subprime lenders promoted before dozens collapsed last year. The loans were particularly attractive to the riskiest borrowers because they had low introductory rates that reset at higher levels later.

``They couldn't compete with true subprime lenders, and they didn't,'' said Dolber.

Of the 24 state agencies S&P rates, all are investment grade, with 18 ranked AA- or higher. None were downgraded as mortgage foreclosures in the U.S. rose 75 percent last year.

At least 10 states have introduced subprime refinancing programs to help stem foreclosures, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, estimates they planned to raise at least $430 million through taxable bonds. Housing officials in Ohio, Massachusetts, New York, Connecticut, and Maryland say they underestimated the extent of the crisis as well as the number of applicants.

``Often the borrower just has too much debt and the home does not have the value to support the refinancing,'' MGIC's Cooper said at a conference in Washington on Jan. 17.

Stimulus Bill

The Senate Finance Committee approved a $157 billion economic stimulus bill on Jan. 30 that would lift the restriction on refinancing mortgages with tax-exempt bonds and authorize states to raise an extra $10 billion over the next three years. The amendment, not included in parallel legislation passed by the House of Representatives, doesn't mandate that the funds be used for subprime loans.

The full Senate will vote on the stimulus bill next week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said yesterday. The two chambers must reconcile their plans before sending legislation to the president.

The National Council of State Housing Agencies supports the Senate legislation because the void left by private lenders extends beyond subprime loans, said Barbara Thompson, executive director.

Spillover

Mortgage originations fell 14 percent in 2007 and will probably decline 34 percent to $1.55 trillion this year, according to forecasts by the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association.

``This is more than a subprime problem,'' Thompson said. ``It has spilled over into the affordable-mortgage product.''

When Ohio rolled out its program in April, Strickland said he anticipated selling more than $100 million in taxable bonds because the state was ``facing a crisis.'' The Democrat told residents to apply to refinance their subprime loans with 30- year fixed-rate mortgages.

The prospects changed once officials saw how many applicants were ineligible because they'd missed a mortgage payment in the last year, said Dawn Larzelere, the legislative affairs director at the Ohio Housing Finance Agency in Columbus.

``I don't think our lending standards are too high,'' said Larzelere. ``I think people have gotten in too far over their head.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael McDonald in Boston at mmcdonald10@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: February 1, 2008 09:23 EST"

[acintra]

Google com descidas de 10% e o desemprego a aumentar, mas a OPA á Yahoo vale mais que tudo.
Que seria, se hoje a Microsoft não se chegasse á frente?

Jobs see a surprise drop in January
Employers trim payrolls by 17,000, as jobs report shows first drop in jobs in four years; unemployment rate slips to 4.9%.

February 1 2008: 9:32 AM EST



NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Employers trimmed jobs from their payrolls in January, according to a government jobs report Friday that showed the first decline in employment in four years. That raised new concerns about the risk of recession for the weakening U.S. economy.

There was a net loss of 17,000 jobs in the month, according to the Labor Department reading. That was partly balanced by a sharp revision higher for the December reading to a gain of 82,000 jobs from the original reading of only an 18,000 increase.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had looked for a gain of 70,000 jobs for January.

The figures showed January as having the first decline in payrolls since August 2003. But the drop was based on the preliminary reading, which is subject to revisions. There have been a few months in the last four years, including August 2007, when the preliminary payroll reading showed a decline was later revised to a gain.

The unemployment rate slipped to 4.9%. Economists had forecast it would remain at the 5% rate reported for December. The drop in the unemployment rate, which is based on a different survey than the one used to calculate U.S. payrolls, was partly due to updated population figures used at the start of the new year.

The weakening state of the labor market has become a growing concern for economists, policymakers and Wall Street in recent weeks, as well as the general public.

Federal Reserve cited evidence of a "softening in labor markets" when it announced both of its rate cuts late last month. Congress is rushing to pass a $150 billion stimulus package that the Bush administration said should add 500,000 jobs to the economy.

Stock futures, which had shot higher earlier in the morning on news of Microsoft's $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo, fell sharply immediately after the jobs report, as investors prepared for recession fears to again dominate market trading.

Fed reaction
Still, some economists say after cutting interest rates by 1.25 percentage points in just the last two weeks, the Fed is unlikely to take any immediate action to calm markets even with this new sign of weakness. The central bank's policymakers will have another employment report to consider before they next meet March 18.

"I do not think this report compels the Fed to do anything," said economist Robert Brusca. "The Fed has eased a lot. Monetary policy works with a lag. The Fed knows weak data will continue for a while after its cuts. It will need to see something much weaker than this to get itself hopped up for another rate cut."

Despite the upward revision in the December payroll reading and the slight decline in unemployment, there was more weakness than strength in the report. The government made its annual revision to all 2007 employment readings, which amounted to a 191,000 drop in jobs, even with the big adjustment higher in December.

The report also showed the average hours worked in the private sector declined in January to 33.7 hours from 33.8 in December. That drop, coupled with only a narrow 4-cent gain in the average hourly wage, resulted in the first drop in weekly wages since April.