Adorava ter sido eu a escrever isto
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Eu já estou como o César. O muito curto e o muito longo prazo são (relativamente) fáceis. O que está no meio é que é difícil.
Mas o autor do Realmoney parece-me errado no muito longo prazo. Não era difícil ver que a bolha tecnológica rebentaria, nem certamente em 1977-82 era difícil ver que aquilo não ficaria tudo estragado para sempre nos EUA.
Mas o autor do Realmoney parece-me errado no muito longo prazo. Não era difícil ver que a bolha tecnológica rebentaria, nem certamente em 1977-82 era difícil ver que aquilo não ficaria tudo estragado para sempre nos EUA.
- Mensagens: 3255
- Registado: 6/11/2002 19:27
Pior ainda é quando os traders de curto prazo se transformam em investidores de longo prazo assim de um momento pró outro, quando algum negócio nã correu de fêção e não activaram stops a tempo, alguns são autenticos vira-casacas lol
Jinhos Ulisses!
Jinhos Ulisses!
Se a verdadeira beleza é a interior, aposta na lingerie!
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- Mensagens: 292
- Registado: 25/11/2002 0:04
Hoje em dia o longo prazo não faz muito sentido
penso eu de que...
O meu horizonte temporal num investimento não ultrapassa os 6 meses (normalmente menos)...
Ainda conheço muito boa gente que pensa em comprar acções para as deixar a apanhar bolor...
São opções mas nos últimos anos de bear market tem-se revelado uma estratégia desastrosa...
Quando invisto, invisto forte mas à procura de ganhos percentuais baixos...
10% de 1000 euros são 100 euros
10% de 10000 euros já são 1000 euros
Ena! O Greeny sabe fazer contas! Uau!
O meu horizonte temporal num investimento não ultrapassa os 6 meses (normalmente menos)...
Ainda conheço muito boa gente que pensa em comprar acções para as deixar a apanhar bolor...
São opções mas nos últimos anos de bear market tem-se revelado uma estratégia desastrosa...
Quando invisto, invisto forte mas à procura de ganhos percentuais baixos...
10% de 1000 euros são 100 euros
10% de 10000 euros já são 1000 euros
Ena! O Greeny sabe fazer contas! Uau!
Green but not span
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- Mensagens: 157
- Registado: 12/11/2002 2:58
Adorava ter sido eu a escrever isto
Rev Shark escreveu agora um post no Realmoney que adorava ter sido eu a ter escrito pois representa bem aquilo que eu acho sobre as previsões a longo prazo e muitas das confusões que acontecem, por exemplo nos fóruns, por causa dos horizontes temporais.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
James "Rev Shark" De Porre
"Don't Get Ahead of Yourself"
4/24/03 01:55 PM ET
"When I discuss my market views, I usually have a fairly short time frame. I'm generally only concerned with what is going to occur in the next few days to few weeks. I don't find much value in trying to predict beyond that.
Frankly, I view long-term market timing as nothing more than a coin flip. I believe it is possible for someone to be consistently good at calling market direction a few weeks or months ahead, but once you start trying to predict what is going to happen six months or a year from now, it really is nothing more than a wild guess. Long-term market timers never seem to be around for long. Yesterday's genius is tomorrow's joke.
Regardless of its usefulness, people have a great inclination to make long-term market predictions. It's always interesting to speculate on what may happen down the road, but for most of us it is simply irrelevant when making investment decisions.
Variations in time frames between writers causes our readers much confusion at times. Two writers with essentially the same viewpoints who are discussing different time frames may sound like they are in total disagreement when they really aren't.
Make sure you understand what time frame people are trading in when you consider what they have to offer. I'll make an effort to try to clarify that more in my own scribblings. I tend to hold stocks for a variety of time frames. I'll flip some things intraday and hold other positions for many months. To me, that is an important form of diversification, and it helps me manage my risk. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Um abraço,
Ulisses
James "Rev Shark" De Porre
"Don't Get Ahead of Yourself"
4/24/03 01:55 PM ET
"When I discuss my market views, I usually have a fairly short time frame. I'm generally only concerned with what is going to occur in the next few days to few weeks. I don't find much value in trying to predict beyond that.
Frankly, I view long-term market timing as nothing more than a coin flip. I believe it is possible for someone to be consistently good at calling market direction a few weeks or months ahead, but once you start trying to predict what is going to happen six months or a year from now, it really is nothing more than a wild guess. Long-term market timers never seem to be around for long. Yesterday's genius is tomorrow's joke.
Regardless of its usefulness, people have a great inclination to make long-term market predictions. It's always interesting to speculate on what may happen down the road, but for most of us it is simply irrelevant when making investment decisions.
Variations in time frames between writers causes our readers much confusion at times. Two writers with essentially the same viewpoints who are discussing different time frames may sound like they are in total disagreement when they really aren't.
Make sure you understand what time frame people are trading in when you consider what they have to offer. I'll make an effort to try to clarify that more in my own scribblings. I tend to hold stocks for a variety of time frames. I'll flip some things intraday and hold other positions for many months. To me, that is an important form of diversification, and it helps me manage my risk. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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