João Leão: Economia precisa de imigrantes (e não só dos qualificados)

[atomez]

Essa é a pergunta que vale 1 bilião... ou mais.

Que tal mais 2 semanas, no máximo 4? É a minha (irrelevante) opinião.

Digo isto porque toda a doutrina militar americana se baseia no ofensiva, eles não sabem estar à defesa. Portanto não vão ficar semanas mais ou menos parados à espera de reforços.

E do lado iraquiano não se vê o que poderão fazer efectivamente para os travar. Isso dos suicidas bombistas só funciona na 1ª vez, a partir daí as tropas já estão de sobreaviso. Mandar bombistas suicidas é muito fácil sobre civis em zonas públicas (como em Israel ou as Twin Towers), contra soldados não. O Iraque não é nada como o Vietname, nem no território nem no factor mais importante - O Vietname tinha do seu lado reservas praticamente inesgotáveis de armamento e abastecimentos (China e URSS), o Iraque nada.

Por outro lado esta análise parece-me realista e razoável (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/03/ ... 6769.shtml)

The capture of Baghdad in April 2003 will present many challenges.

However, the battle is not likely to take very long, cause many civilian casualties, or many casualties on the part of coalition forces.

Fortunately, America and its coalition partners enjoy many advantages that should make the fall of Baghdad less difficult than many pundits and experts predict.

American technology provides a huge advantage, not only on an open battlefield, but also inside any major city. For instance, as our soldiers move in on Baghdad and encounter armed resistance, it will not be prudent or necessary, in most cases, to continue the attack from the ground. The enemy target can be quickly pinpointed and, within a matter of a few minutes, attacked from the air.

The AC-130 gunship should be very useful in this regard. It has a long
loiter time, an enormous weapons load, excellent sensors and can hit a target using one of three types of very accurate cannon.

Bombs of various types can be used in the urban environment. If there are civilians very close to the enemy position, then a concrete bomb can be dropped. These bombs have no explosive power whatsoever. Yet they are precision guided and can knock out a target with just the kinetic energy of a 500 pound or 2000 piece of concrete that is shaped like a bomb. Civilians just across the street from the enemy position will be safe since these concrete bombs will not send out any explosive blast or metal shrapnel.

Also, the coalition air forces have bombs that can count the floors in a building and only explode when it hits the selected floor. Hence, if the enemy has taken up firing positions on the fourth floor of ten-story building, the bomb will penetrate, through an airshaft, the top six floors and explode only when it reaches the exact location of the enemy. This capability will reduce casualties of innocent civilians who may be in the building on the other floors.

There are also geographic and architectural factors that should reduce casualties on both sides during the final battle.

Baghdad has many wide avenues and relatively few narrow streets. In addition, it does not have many tall buildings for Iraqi snipers. But there are a number of river and canals that will provide excellent fields of fire for coalition snipers and special operators who use lasers to designate targets for airmen to bomb.

(...)

How long will this battle take?

Taking all of these factors into consideration, I think the battle will take no more than a week and hopefully even less time.

In recent times, the fall of Kandahar offer the best comparison. Whereas Kabul fell is less than a day, the fall of Kandahar took nearly a week.

The fall of Baghdad will not end the war, but it will be a huge psychological defeat for the enemy and should accelerate the demise of the regime of Saddam.