Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[mig]

Obrigado na mesma ulisses, mas pelo que entendi ele diz q a jdsu tem sumo, depois de ter saido antes dos resultados reentrei a 2.22,espero que ele tenha razão

[Ulisses Pereira]

mig, isso era uma janela que estava ao lado do artigo com links para outros artigos e que eu me esqueci de apagar

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[mig]

O que quer dizer com isso?

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Peering at a Window of Resistance"

By Jeff Cooper
Street Insight Contributor
9/5/2006 7:08 AM EDT

"The S&P 500 is at key resistance, and the window of that resistance runs from 1305 to 1346. That is because the low of the high-bar month of March 2000 was 1346.60, while the low of the breakdown month from October 2000 was 1305.80. That is why the S&P backed off from a high close of 1325.75 on May 5 this year -- right in the middle of this window of resistance.

It is theoretically possible that the 100-point S&P shakeout from that May high into a June low was the pullback that would be expected after a test of resistance. It is theoretically possible, I suppose, that the approximate 8% correction comprised the four-year cycle low, and that the S&P is going to march ahead to new highs from here -- theoretically possible, but I do not see it.

The four-year cycle is only one cycle at work here. There is a cluster of other cycles that will bear down at any point from here -- if they are going to at all.

Moreover, I suspect that the correction into June was insufficient to satisfy a four-year cycle trough that typically is due in the fall anyway.

More than likely, that decline was a shot over the bow -- a shot that rings hollow over the USS Complacency, as the S&P scored a new high for the rally on Friday with a close at 1311 prior to the Labor Day weekend. Isn't that special?

As I mentioned here last week, it just felt like the Boyz had a buy program in their hip pocket for Friday. The jobs data coming in just as expected on Friday morning gave them the ammunition they needed to engineer a breakout in a thin holiday session with few big guns around.




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The "B" team players have done a superb job with their pistols, keeping the market grinding higher in the absence of their bosses and most of the big guns who are on vacation. This week we'll get to see which way the cannons will point in September.

The underlying technical question is whether the market has been fluffed up like a turkey on a fence and will make a good target for the returning varsity team. Will September keep its unsavory trading reputation as the worst month of the year for stocks?

In tracing out a three-week Swing Pullback to a test, from June, to test the May high, has the S&P carved out a fractal of the three-month drive since the 2003 low, to test the underbelly of the resistance from the all-time highs?

Last month, after the breakout over 1280 S&P, I stated that a move that retraces more than 70% of the prior decline typically goes back to a prior high or exceeds it, and to not be surprised at a move to the May highs or higher. I then said there was a 50/50 shot of a run to as high as 1340/1350 S&P. I also said that I would not chase the rally into the end of August other than on a trading basis. I mentioned that a move to test or exceed the May high in the late August/early September time frame would not change the likelihood of a fall decline.

Rather, it would seem to underscore the scenario as a strong move up that magnetizes a market into a turning point that seems to charge that turning point with significance.

At the same time, I warned against shorting into strength but rather to wait for weakness below 1292 or the break of the ascending triangle shown on the S&P to confirm any vulnerability in the markets.

Conclusion: The next natural turning point on the calendar is Sept. 8, which vibrates off the price of 1320 S&P, opposite the date of Sept. 8. "

(in www.realmoney.com)