Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Barra]

30 Aug 2006 00:20 GMT

WSJ(8/30) Adviser Urges Alcatel Investors To Reject Merger
(From THE WALL STREET JOURNAL)
By Leila Abboud

French investor-advisory firm Proxinvest is urging shareholders of French telecommunications-equipment maker Alcatel SA to reject a proposed merger with U.S. rival Lucent Technologies Inc., raising a potential roadblock as shareholders on both sides of the Atlantic prepare to vote on the deal next month.

In a letter sent to fund managers Monday, Proxinvest said Alcatel shareholders were paying too much for Lucent and advised them to vote against the deal. The letter also slammed proposed changes to the corporate bylaws that would make it harder to unseat the chief executive and chairman.

Alcatel shareholders are scheduled to vote on the proposed merger at the French company's annual meeting Sept. 7 in Paris. Lucent shareholders will also vote on the merger that same day. For the merger to be approved, two-thirds of shareholders in each company must vote for it.

Proxinvest's position differs from that taken last week by the U.S.-based proxy-advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services. In its merger analysis, ISS recommended that shareholders of both firms support the deal, citing its "compelling strategic rationale, attractive synergies and conservation valuation." Another U.S.-based advisory firm, Glass, Lewis & Co., also came out in favor of the deal last week.

Alcatel and Lucent, of Murray Hill, N.J., announced their proposed merger in April. The move was a reaction to intensifying competition in the telecom-equipment business, especially from new low-cost manufacturers in China. Consolidation among operators of telecom networks in recent years has also reduced the pool of buyers and put pressure on prices.

Lucent and Alcatel were considered natural merger partners because they have overlapping product lines and different strengths. More than two-thirds of Alcatel's business is from Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa. Nearly two-thirds of Lucent's business is done in the U.S. Alcatel had 2005 revenue of 13.1 billion euros ($16.75 billion); Lucent had revenue of $9.44 billion last year.

But since the merger was announced, Lucent issued a profit warning in July and weak quarterly results, prompting some Alcatel shareholders to question the value of the deal. Lucent reported a 79% drop in profit and declining sales for its fiscal third quarter because of weak spending from U.S. telecommunications operators.

"The outlook for Lucent has significantly worsened since the deal was announced," said Richard Windsor, an analyst at Nomura Securities. "The strategic rationale for the deal is still there, but I just think Alcatel is offering too much and should pay less."

Alcatel spokeswoman Regine Coqueran said the company's board had done an exhaustive and "prudent analysis of Lucent's business and believed that the price set in April was appropriate. The value of a company depends more on long-term perspectives than on one or two quarters," said Ms. Coqueran.

Lucent spokeswoman Mary Lourdes Ambrus said, "We believe the terms of the merger are fair for both Lucent and Alcatel shareowners."

Proxinvest critiqued the financial terms of the proposed merger, under which Alcatel would pay Lucent shareholders 0.1952 Alcatel share for every Lucent share they own, valuing each Alcatel share at just over five Lucent shares. Proxinvest said that given Lucent's falling share price and weak performance, the exchange rate should be closer to seven Lucent shares for each Alcatel share. Lucent's shares gained four cents to $2.30 in 4 p.m. composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Alcatel's shares, meanwhile, rose 27 cents to $12.39 on the exchange.

Proxinvest also criticized a proposal that would require votes from two-thirds of board members to remove either the chief executive or the chairman of the combined company.

[Barra]

Estou longo na Alcatel.

Parece-me que após uma quebra abrupta ela está definitivamente com bom aspecto.

Alguém acompanha?

[costarios]

Estou a perder ligeiramente na Alcatel. O meu preço médio está nos 10,45 € e neste momento ela segue a cotar nos 10,40 € com uma valorização na ordem do 1% na sessão de hoje (até o momento).

Mesmo com esta ligeira perda eu continuo a apostar na Alcatel. Os gráficos estão desactualizados, mas dão uma noção da importância que estou a dar à zona dos 10,20 € / 10,40 €. Uma vez vencida esta barreira eu acredito que os 10,60 € também cairão, sendo que após esta zona o caminho está praticamente livre para a zona dos 11,20 €.

[costarios]

Grande surpresa a da Alcatel. Apesar de manter uma LTa com mais de 6 meses de duração, não esperava uma reacção assim tão forte.

Como podem reparar pelos gráficos, uma resistência bastante relevante nos 10,20 € foi muito facilmente quebrada na sessão de hoje (o título encerrou o dia a ganhar quase 4%!). A subida foi tão forte que foi capaz de penetrar (mas não romper no fecho) a sua próxima resistência localizada na zona dos 10,40 €.

O movimento mais desejado por mim (e pela maioria dos demais investidores) é um recuo da cotação até a sua antiga resistência (possivelmente um futuro suporte) nos 10,20 €. Uma consolidação deste suporte daria a confiança necessária para uma entrada em força dos bulls de plantão.

As próximas resistências estão nos 10,66 € e 11,27 €.

Os suportes estão nos 10,20 € e na sua LTa, actualmente na zona dos 9,70 €.